The Association’s experts reflect on Kevin Durant’s scoring totals and his overall career.<\/p>\n
How many players get the chance to top Michael Jordan in anything basketball-related, from championships to MVPs to even shoe sales?<\/p>\n
Not often. Except in the coming days, he\u2019ll get leapfrogged by Kevin Durant, who will climb the mountaintop known as the NBA\u2019s all-time career scoring list and give it some fresh Air. Durant needs 69 points to surpass Jordan (32,292 career points) entering Wednesday\u2019s game against the Lakers (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN<\/a>). That would put Durant at No. 5 overall on the chart and, even for a scoring savant like Durant, this is quite the flex.<\/p>\n But not unexpected. Durant, 37, has been trending in this direction through much of a career filled with big bucket games, a stream of seasonal scoring averages in the high 20s and the type of longevity that creates such opportunities.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s pretty cool to be in the same category as some of the greats that ever played the game,\u201d Durant said. \u201cThey\u2019ve added so much to the game that have inspired me to stick around this long.\u201d<\/p>\n Durant is like most of his generation who missed Jordan\u2019s prime. They mostly know Jordan from videos or sneakers, although Durant grew up near Washington, D.C., and said he saw Jordan in person once Jordan finished his career with the Wizards.<\/p>\n \u201cI just remember the excitement in the building, the excitement around town,\u201d Durant said. \u201cThe reaction to Mike was just different, man.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s a perfect basketball storm that created Durant into a force; he\u2019s among the handful of elites who can score a variety of ways \u2014 at the rim, mid-range, 3-pointers, off the dribble, catch and shoot. That assortment made him so lethal for almost two decades and a tough assignment even for the best defenders.<\/p>\n This diversity gives him something in common with virtually everyone else among the top 10 scorers<\/a>, some of whom are recognized as all-time greats. When the defense took something away from those players, they chose another method, which was either just as successful or close enough. That explains the Kevin Durant experience.<\/p>\n And understand, Durant missed the entire 2019-20 season<\/a> and played just 35 games in 2020-21 after recovering from Achilles surgery. If not for that pause between stints with the Golden State Warriors and Brooklyn Nets, his rise on the list would\u2019ve been sooner.<\/p>\n What\u2019s also impressive about Durant over his career is his ability to blend in quickly and make a scoring impact, no matter the system, coach or team. He managed to score in bunches next to Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City and alongside Stephen Curry with the Warriors. He did so beside Devin Booker with the Phoenix Suns and playing with James Harden and Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn.<\/p>\n Westbrook, Harden and Curry are all former scoring champs, while Curry is a two-time Kia MVP<\/a> and the league\u2019s all-time leader in 3-pointers made<\/a>. Yet Durant didn\u2019t conflict much, if at all, with those players. That\u2019s mainly because his trademark efficiency (he\u2019s a career 50.3% shooter) never took shots away from them.<\/p>\n Durant won the scoring championship four times in five seasons (2009-12 & 2013-14). He averaged 30 points only twice (30.1 ppg in 2009-10 and 32 ppg in 2013-14) but never averaged below 20 points in a season. And since that rookie season in 2007-08, Durant has never averaged less than 25 ppg in a season.<\/p>\n If a sudden drop-off in production is approaching, as with all players who reach a certain age, it\u2019s not happening tomorrow. Durant is at 25.8 ppg in his first season with the Rockets and still commands respect from opposing defenses. In his second game with Houston, he dropped 37 points. He\u2019s had multiple 30-point games every month with a season high of 40.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you know him or know about him, you expect that,\u201d said Rockets coach Ime Udoka. \u201cThe last few years, he\u2019s had the same efficiency, same percentages, so his game is going to translate well with age. You don\u2019t trade for somebody if you think they\u2019re going to have a drop-off or fall off \u2026 he\u2019s doing exactly what we thought coming in.\u201d<\/p>\n That said, Durant also has advantages that a majority of players on the all-time list didn\u2019t enjoy: he\u2019s the product of an era that tilts in favor of offensive players and provides them much more freedom, room to create and ease of scoring.<\/p>\n This doesn\u2019t shortchange Durant\u2019s accomplishments or his eventual place in the top five. He stands almost 7 feet and is highly skilled. He would likely excel in any era. It just helps provide context and explain why he has more forces working for him than against him, which can\u2019t be said for great scorers of the past \u2014 even Jordan.<\/p>\n Playing in today\u2019s scoring culture can only help Durant climb even higher on the list in the near future, before he retires, assuming good health.<\/p>\n 6 factors to consider about Durant\u2019s rise<\/p>\n \u2022 At the start of this week, 35 players were averaging 20 ppg or more. Twenty-five years ago, 25 players finished the season averaging at least 20 ppg<\/a>. The pace is quicker and the floor is spaced to give offensive players more options and leverage. They\u2019re more likely to see one-on-one coverage or get open looks, which helps them shoot more efficiently.<\/p>\n \u2022 The emphasis on 3-point shooting today gives scorers an additional weapon that either wasn\u2019t embraced or available to scorers of the past, such as Pete Maravich, Jerry West and John Havlicek, among others. Larry Bird, one of the greatest distance shooters ever, wasn\u2019t a volume 3-point shooter. (Bird made just 649 3-pointers in his career and by comparison, mid-range specialist DeMar DeRozan has 658 career 3-pointers.) Jordan (581) never made it part of his game, either, despite the famous \u201cshrug\u201d performance<\/a> in the NBA Finals against Portland. The 3-pointer will allow Durant to overtake Jordan despite attempting over 2,000 fewer shots.<\/p>\n \u2022 The post-up big man has virtually disappeared in the NBA. Denver Nuggets star Nikola Joki\u0107 and San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama are currently the only centers among the top 30 scorers this season. The NBA is now a perimeter game and the days of dumping the ball inside are all but gone. With fewer centers taking shots and serving as a primary option, wing players such as Durant get most of the looks.<\/p>\n \u2022 Rule changes and interpretation in the last few decades favored the offense. The league felt the game grew stale and uninteresting in the 1990s when sub-100 game scores were not uncommon. The plan was to make it more exciting and breezy and take advantage of the abundance of athleticism and outside shooting.<\/p>\n Suddenly, hand-checking was outlawed. The game became less physical. The art of dribbling evolved to the extent that the crossover and hesitation dribble \u2014 neither are possible without placing the hand on the side or even slightly underneath the ball \u2014 became widely accepted and practiced. The league initially cracked down on Allen Iverson, who popularized the crossover and hesitation, then ignored any infractions, both perceived and real, and the floodgates opened. With those deceptive dribbles, defenders are frozen in place, allowing the offensive player to blow by, and scoring increases, which was the goal all along.<\/p>\n \u2022 Players can get from Point A to B in a variety of ways in this era. That signals another offensive revolution \u2014 the Eurostep, gather step, hop step and step-back (to the 3-point line) all helped offensive players create space, gain a significant advantage over defenders and led to increased scoring.<\/p>\n \u2022 Careers last longer today than yesterday. Modern medicine, therapy, travel, training, personal habits and the realization that generational wealth and franchise values are at stake, players and teams do whatever it takes to keep superstars productive well into their late 30s.<\/p>\n Regarding NBA records and all-time lists, context and eras matter in that debate. Perhaps 20 years from now, when someone else \u2014 say, Cooper Flagg \u2014 prepares to leapfrog Durant, that player will enjoy benefits that Durant lacked. Or vice-versa \u2014 future rule changes could rescue the defense. In that case, the task of climbing all-time scoring lists will be more impressive than now.<\/p>\n Speaking of tasks, the challenge for Durant is climbing higher on the all-time scoring list<\/a>. After passing Jordan, he will be looking up at LeBron James (who\u2019s still active and adding to his record total), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone and Kobe Bryant.<\/p>\n He can pass Bryant (33,643) next season. Catching Malone (36,928) might require two seasons at Durant\u2019s current pace.<\/p>\n Then, it gets tricky.<\/p>\n Abdul-Jabbar is at 38,387 points. Durant would need four more seasons of playing 65 or so games each campaign and would need to average roughly 25 ppg when he\u2019s in his 40s to pass Abdul-Jabbar.<\/p>\n When asked about this possibility by reporter Leigh Ellis two months ago, Durant said<\/a>: \u201cI don\u2019t know if I could get 25 a game for 270 more games, brother. I never wanna say never, but those dudes set the bar so high. I think about the top three or four, you gotta play at least 20 years in the league to even reach that, and still be at that level for 15 or 20 years.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m looking at it more so like that. Play long, play 20-plus years in the league, and see where you end up. If I end up there, it\u2019s cool; if not, I just wanna be around and be in the league.\u201d<\/p>\n Which means: Durant\u2019s desire isn\u2019t the issue, never was. He likes to hoop. He\u2019ll probably play until the legs fall off \u2026 which might happen before the production falls off too steeply.<\/p>\n * * *<\/p>\n Shaun Powell has covered the NBA since 1985. You can e-mail him at\u00a0spowell@nba.com<\/a>, find\u00a0his archive here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0follow him on\u00a0X<\/a>.<\/p>\n