{"id":550698,"date":"2026-03-19T14:19:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T14:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/550698\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T14:19:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T14:19:31","slug":"ufc-london-main-card-odds-breakdowns-and-predictions-x-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/550698\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC London main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"

This weekend (Sat., March 21, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to O2 Arena in London, England, for UFC London<\/a>. Despite the venture across the pond, much of this card is underwhelming. It really all revolves around the main event, an incredible matchup between two of the very best Featherweights in the world, Lerone Murphy vs. Movsar Evloev<\/a>. This 145-pound showdown is actually the silver lining to Diego Lopes\u2019 undeserved second title shot<\/a>: it should have been Murphy or Evloev, but getting to watch the duo compete is a consolation prize. As for the rest, well, the usual mix of local talent \u2014 some fun, some gifted \u2014 are being trusted to provide the action.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:<\/p>\n

\"DOHA,<\/a><\/p>\n

DOHA, QATAR – NOVEMBER 22: (R-L) Luke Riley of England punches Bogdan Grad of Romania in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at ABHA Arena on November 22, 2025 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Featherweight: Luke Riley (-265)<\/a> vs. Michael Aswell (+200)
<\/a>Best Win for Riley? Bogdan Grad For Aswell? Lucas Almeida
Current Streak: Both men won their last UFC bout
X-Factor: This is a pair of young, relatively green up-and-comers
How these two match up: This matchup is a continued investment in the career of 26-year-0ld Riley.<\/p>\n

The young striker from Liverpool is an exciting and popular prospect at 145 pounds. His UFC debut showed several areas that need to be improved if he\u2019s to contend \u2014 namely on the floor \u2014 but Riley also showed his promise by storming back in the second round and absolutely starching his foe with a heavy combination (watch highlights<\/a>). Aswell is actually a year younger, but doesn\u2019t have the same hype. He\u2019s fought a very solid level of competition for his experience, and boxing has proven to be his best asset.<\/p>\n

Both men have earned a majority of their wins via knockout.<\/p>\n

There looks to be a difference in power and fluidity. As is so often the case with young standouts, their games are both more focused on offense than slick defense, so a gap in punching power is likely to be the deciding factor. Riley is the more explosive man here, meaning he\u2019s likely to score first, set the tone, and continue to build success.<\/p>\n

Aswell has never been stopped, but maybe the Cage Warriors veteran can break that trend.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Riley via knockout<\/p>\n

\"CHICAGO,<\/a><\/p>\n

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – AUGUST 16: Michael Page of England, right, strikes Jared Cannonier of the United States during their middleweight bout during UFC 319 at the United Center on August 16, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox\/Getty Images) Getty Images<\/p>\n

Welterweight: Michael Page (-215)<\/a> vs. Sam Patterson (+164)
<\/a>Best Win for Page? Jared Cannonier For Patterson? Danny Barlow
Current Streak: Page has won two in a row, while Patterson has won four straight
X-Factor: Page is 38 years old
How these two match up: It\u2019s hard to interpret this matchup as anything other than a punishment for Page.<\/p>\n

\u201cMVP\u201d clearly beat Cannonier and Shara Magomedov in his last two fights, two opponents far more accomplished than anybody Patterson has ever faced, let alone defeated. Page is 3-1 in UFC with his only loss coming to Ian Garry \u2014 he\u2019s clearly proven himself a world-class talent, yet he isn\u2019t being given a chance to climb the ladder. Patterson, for his part, is a solid prospect. He\u2019s massive for the Welterweight division and is a finishing threat both on the canvas and on the feet. Likely, he\u2019ll have to rely heavily on the wrestling if he\u2019s to score the upset here, because Page is a tremendously tricky striker.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t really see it happening. Page is a mediocre grappler, but he\u2019s quite difficult to drag to the canvas. Really, only top-notch competition has managed it, and I\u2019m not sure Patterson is there quite yet. Furthermore, it\u2019s difficult for a fighter accustomed to having a range advantage to suddenly be out-gunned at the kicking distance. Patterson is going to walk into a lot of Page\u2019s traps, and that\u2019s only going to make it harder for him to find takedowns.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m expecting another flashy decision win for the former Bellator title challenger.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Page via decision<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 06: (R-L) Iwo Baraniewski of Poland punches Ibo Aslan of Turkey in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC 323 event at T-Mobile Arena on December 06, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Light Heavyweight: Iwo Baraniewski (-430)<\/a> vs. Austen Lane (+300)
<\/a>Best Win for Baraniewski? Ibo Aslan For Lane? Robelis Despaigne
Current Streak:Baraniewski recently won his UFC debut, whereas Lane has lost two straight
X-Factor: Baraniewski is still fairly unproven as a pro
How these two match up: I\u2019m fairly surprised Lane is still on UFC\u2019s roster after his 1-4 (1) promotional start, but there are desperate times in the heavier divisions.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, 27-year-old Baraniewski looks to be a talented up-and-comer. The Polish finisher has a wealth of amateur experience, and he\u2019s thus far really excelled as a professional, scoring all seven of his pro wins via stoppage. He has heavy hands and a background in Judo, the latter of which has yet to really factor into his UFC career.<\/p>\n

Lane, meanwhile, has the unfortunate curse of being chinny. In the upper divisions, one\u2019s ability to take a shot is as important as any actual skill, and Lane doesn\u2019t have the gift of durability. On the plus side, Lane does have some decent boxing, and he did manage to wrestle Despaigne consistently for three rounds to score his sole UFC victory.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not going to dig too deep into this one: we have a young fighter who hits hard with a good pedigree taking an older opponent who\u2019s primary role in UFC has been punching bag. Lane has a puncher\u2019s chance, but otherwise I don\u2019t see him finding consistent wrestling success nor is he going to able to hang in the pocket for long opposite Baraniewski.<\/p>\n

\u201cRudy\u201d remains undefeated with another quick finish.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Baraniewski via knockout<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 08: Christian Leroy Duncan of England punches Marco Tulio of Brazil in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on November 08, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Middleweight: Roman Dolidze (+300)<\/a> vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-430)
<\/a>Best Win for Dolidze? Marvin Vettori For Duncan? Eryk Anders
Current Streak: Dolidze lost his last bout, whereas Duncan has won three straight
X-Factor: Dolidze is 37 years old and coming off one of the most brutal losses of 2025
How these two match up: I thought I was going to predict an upset here, but turns out the odds makers and betting public are way, way ahead of me.<\/p>\n

Dolidze has always been a strange fighter. How many Top 10<\/a> talents can honestly say their best asset is their bottom game? Dolidze is a big, lumbering hitter on the feet, but he\u2019s genuinely at his most dangerous when allowed to play guard.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not a style that should work in modern mixed martial arts (MMA), but here we are.<\/p>\n

Duncan, conversely, is a striker who moves really fluidly. He attacks well at distance, but also closes range beautifully, flowing into combinations in a way that relatively few men at 185 pounds can match. There have been some growing pains for the 30-year-old Englishman, but he appears to have shored up his defensive grappling in a significant way.<\/p>\n

While Dolidze is definitely a finishing threat, it\u2019s hard not to favor the rising contender here. Duncan is going to mash up Dolidze on the feet, and the Georgian standout has never demonstrated any kind of consistent offensive wrestling. My exact prediction is this: Dolidze comes out swinging until Duncan cracks him a few times, at which point Dolidze enters \u201cstall in the clinch\u201d mode to keep himself conscious until the final bell.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not a winning strategy, but it\u2019s better than getting knocked out by a spinning elbow.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Duncan via decision<\/p>\n

\"LAS<\/a><\/p>\n

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 02: (R-L) Danny Silva punches Kevin Vallejos of Argentina in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on August 02, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Featherweight: Kurtis Campbell (-215)<\/a> vs. Danny Silva (+164)
<\/a>Best Win for Campbell? Demba Seck For Silva? Josh Culibao
Current Streak: Campbell debuts at 8-0, while Silva lost his most recent bout
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters for Campbell
How these two match up: This should be a great scrap.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot to like about 23-year-old Campbell, who approaches combat with the confidence and aggression one would expect from an unbeaten young talent. He\u2019s active from all ranges, using punishing kicks to set up counter combinations. He\u2019s plenty willing to wrestle, too, showing a good level of comfort wherever the fight goes. Silva is similarly well-rounded. That said, his boxing and comfort in the pocket are his most standout traits. He\u2019s at his best when throwing punches-in-bunches, staying in range and keeping the punch count high.<\/p>\n

I expect a very competitive fight here. Campbell appears to be a bit more powerful, and he holds the kicking advantage. Silva, conversely, has an edge in boxing and volume, as well as more experience against high-level competition. As such, I\u2019m expecting Campbell to start the fight strong, but Silva will begin to find success as Campbell naturally slows down a bit.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a matter of timing and that rowdy London crowd. Can Silva turn the tide and sway the judges before Campbell builds too great a lead? I\u2019m inclined to think he can, but winning close fights on enemy soil is not an easy task.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Silva via decision<\/p>\n

\u2018X-Factor\u2019 Picks for 2026: 10-8<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest UFC London fight card and rumors click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This weekend (Sat., March 21, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to O2 Arena in London,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":550699,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,179146,19458,19457,7990,1647],"class_list":["post-550698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550698"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550698\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/550699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}