AAA<\/p>\n
Just after dawn, as Adelaide commuters flick between traffic updates and talkback, the attack ad cuts through on FIVEAA\u2019s breakfast show.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s been a busy four years for the Liberals,\u201d the voice begins, before zeroing in on the churn \u2013 \u201cfour leaders in four years\u201d \u2013 and then the scandals. A former MP \u201cconvicted of serious drug offences\u201d, another \u201ccharged with domestic violence\u201d, and one \u201ceven jailed for theft\u201d. It ends with a sting: \u201cThey say they\u2019re tough on crime \u2026 All that in just four years. Imagine four more.\u201d<\/p>\n
It is brutal, relentless and \u2013 Liberals privately concede \u2013 uncomfortably effective.<\/p>\n
On polling booths around Adelaide this week, Liberal volunteers report repeatedly being called a \u201cshambles\u201d by voters \u2013 a word deployed heavily in Premier Peter Malinauskas\u2019 advertising. One anecdote circulating on talkback has one volunteer so demoralised on pre-poll they were consoled by a Labor counterpart after struggling to find takers for how-to-vote cards.<\/p>\n
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Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn was installed as leader just 100 days before the vote.AAPIMAGE<\/p>\n
As 1.3 million South Australians head to the polls, the state\u2019s Liberal Party is not merely staring down defeat. It is confronting the possibility of a generational wipeout \u2013 one that could reshape conservative politics nationally, test the electoral ceiling of One Nation, and intensify internal fractures that have been simmering for years.<\/p>\n
Drafted in as leader barely 100 days out from polling day, Ashton Hurn became the fourth Liberal to take the helm in as many years \u2013 following the underwhelming tenure of Vincent Tarzia and the collapse of David Speirs\u2019 leadership amid a cocaine scandal.<\/p>\n
Praised internally as a talented and hard-working, the 35-year-old is nonetheless expected to lead the party to its heaviest defeat in a generation \u2013 potentially the worst result since Labor\u2019s 1993 rout after the State Bank collapse.<\/p>\n
A new experimental AI poll, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor on March 16, underscores the scale of the challenge. The survey of 1112 registered voters \u2013 involving a phone interview between respondents and an AI voice \u2013 has 31 per cent giving Labor their first preference, with One Nation on 28 per cent, the Liberals trailing on 18 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent and others 11 per cent. It has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent.<\/p>\n
That trajectory reflects not just Liberal weakness but Labor strength.<\/p>\n
Led by Malinauskas, the government enters the campaign with extraordinary levels of popular support. Strong economic growth, combined with an aggressive pursuit of major events \u2013 from AFL Gather Round to LIV Golf and the MotoGP \u2013 have left Labor in a seemingly impregnable position.<\/p>\n
Even vulnerabilities have struggled to cut through. Labor has paid little political price for failing to \u201cfix\u201d ambulance ramping, despite making it a centrepiece of its 2022 campaign, while rising state debt has done little to dent its standing with voters.<\/p>\n
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Peter Malinauskas with his family and supporters at Labor\u2019s official campaign launch last month.AAP<\/p>\n
The electoral picture is stark. The Liberals are defending just 13 of 47 lower house seats and are at risk in both metropolitan Adelaide and parts of their rural heartland. In the city, Labor\u2019s dominance looks entrenched. In the regions, the threat is more complex \u2013 One Nation on one side, independents on the other, and volatile preference flows cutting across both.<\/p>\n
As Clement Macintyre, emeritus professor in politics at the University of Adelaide, puts it: \u201cIt\u2019s not a stock-standard South Australian election \u2026 we\u2019re not used to seeing polls showing interest in the third party to the extent that we\u2019re seeing for One Nation.\u201d<\/p>\n
He says the surge reflects a familiar Liberal dilemma.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the moment the Liberal Party is caught between \u2018does it appeal to that more rural conservative wing?\u2019 or \u2018does it move to try and take back the cities with its more moderate and smaller liberal policies?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
That tension has defined the party for decades and remains unresolved. Malinauskas has deftly reminded voters all week about difference between the state and federal Liberals on issues such as the Indigenous Voice to parliament and net zero.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
South Australia has long produced lopsided outcomes. Since the end of Thomas Playford\u2019s 26-year reign in 1965, the Liberals have spent only about 17\u00bd of the past 56 years in government. Labor has typically dominated metropolitan Adelaide, often winning enough city seats on narrow margins to offset large Liberal majorities in the regions.<\/p>\n
That balance has shifted further against the Liberals. Labor is pushing deeper into once-safe suburban territory, while the Liberals\u2019 rural base is fragmenting \u2013 challenged by independents, candidate controversies and now a rising One Nation vote.<\/p>\n
Even with that surge, translating support into seats is another matter.<\/p>\n
South Australia\u2019s electoral geography \u2013 and preferential voting \u2013 work against minor parties in the lower house. Labor is expected to direct preferences to the Liberals ahead of One Nation, meaning challengers must either top the primary vote or leapfrog both major parties after preferences.<\/p>\n
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South Australians have voted in droves on the first days of pre-polling ahead of Saturday\u2019s election.Ben Searcy Photography<\/p>\n
\u201cMy gut feel is I don\u2019t think One Nation are going to win seats in the lower house in South Australia,\u201d Macintyre says. \u201cBut I could be wrong there.\u201d<\/p>\n
Either way, the Liberals are squeezed \u2013 bleeding votes to One Nation while still relying on Labor preferences to survive.<\/p>\n
The party\u2019s problems are not just electoral but cumulative.<\/p>\n
Hurn\u2019s elevation in December, while widely seen internally as overdue, has not stemmed the slide in the polls. She has stood out in a weak shadow cabinet but the legacy of policy shifts and three leadership changes in a single term \u2013 riven by scandal \u2013 continues to drag on the party\u2019s fortunes.<\/p>\n
That pressure has been compounded by events during the campaign itself.<\/p>\n
Midway through, the party was forced to dump candidate Carston Woodhouse after his \u201cshocking and extreme\u201d views surfaced, including comments on abortion, same-sex marriage, gender transitioning and feminism aired on a podcast.<\/p>\n
Related Article Hurn initially stood by him, before reversing course within 24 hours.<\/p>\n The episode exposed deeper tensions. Liberal senator Alex Antic, a key conservative factional figure, defended Woodhouse, warning that if candidates were forced out over such controversies \u201cwe might as well shut the doors on this election with one week to go\u201d. Antic has also been openly flirting with defecting to One Nation.<\/p>\n In the Barossa Valley town of Tanunda this week, Hurn continued the ongoing reset.<\/p>\n She argues voters are turning to parties focused on practical concerns, insisting the Liberals have centred their campaign on cost of living and health rather than internal debates. There has been too much \u201cnavel-gazing\u201d across politics, she says.<\/p>\n \u201cFrankly, I\u2019m not going to be one of these politicians who becomes a commentator,\u201d she says, framing herself as focused on \u201cbread and butter\u201d issues, arguing a vote for One Nation only entrenches Labor and promotes chaos.<\/p>\n Within the party, there is a recognition it may be too late. More positive forecasts predict just eight seats but some fear a nightmare scenario of being left with three or fewer. Metropolitan seats at risk to Labor include Unley, Hartley, Morphett and Colton.<\/p>\n South Australian Liberal Party president Leah Blyth, a senator, is blunt.<\/p>\n \u201cI sort of lament and think what if she [Hurn] had had more time,\u201d Blyth, a member of the party\u2019s conservative faction, says.<\/p>\n She argues Hurn has improved as the campaign has progressed and could have made it a different contest with a longer runway. But she concedes the broader challenge.<\/p>\n Labor has delivered a \u201cwhole lot of broken promises\u201d, particularly on ambulance ramping, Blyth says. But the Liberals have also \u201cnot delivered on what we said we would\u201d.<\/p>\n Rebuilding trust will require a return to core principles \u2013 economic management and lower taxes \u2013 so the party is \u201ctaking less from hard-working South Australians \u2026 allowing them to keep more in their pockets\u201d.<\/p>\n But Resolve pollster Jim Reed says the shift appears durable, with One Nation holding its support into the final week and, polling at 28 per cent, potentially converting it into seats in regional seats such as Narungga and Mount Gambier, with outside prospects in Flinders, MacKillop and Chaffey.<\/p>\n \u201cLabor will still do well in urban Adelaide but this result would mean One Nation taking some lower house seats, especially as the Liberals are directing preferences their way,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \u201cLabor voters are voting for Malinauskas because they think he\u2019s doing well, the remaining Liberals are voting against him because they think he\u2019s not, and One Nation voters are voting against them all for a bigger change.\u201d<\/p>\n That prospect gives the result national significance. It shapes as the clearest test yet of whether One Nation\u2019s support can translate into seats \u2013 and whether the Coalition faces a structural challenge on its right flank.<\/p>\n Inside Liberal ranks, the argument about the future is no longer contained.<\/p>\n One camp believes the party must win back voters drifting to One Nation, sharpening its message on cost of living and law and order. Another warns that chasing those voters risks alienating moderates and fuelling talk of centrist breakaways \u2013 splits that could leave the party even weaker.<\/p>\n![\"One](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/aab0af6d3a8c0ecee6e3d3158e7d5b6c0002a27a.jpeg\")
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South Australian Liberal senators Alex Antic and Leah Blyth arrive to last month\u2019s federal leadership spill in Canberra.Dominic Lorrimer<\/p>\n
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