{"id":552832,"date":"2026-03-20T13:05:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T13:05:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/552832\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T13:05:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T13:05:08","slug":"ecb-hawk-says-will-need-to-consider-april-rate-hike-if-inflation-outlook-sours-further","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/552832\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB hawk says will need to consider April rate hike if inflation outlook sours further"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nagel said that the central bank will have to consider a rate hike as early as next month, that is if price pressures continue to ramp up further amid the Middle East conflict. Adding that:<\/p>\n

“As things currently stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could deteriorate and inflation expectations could rise on a sustained basis, meaning that a more restrictive monetary policy stance would probably be necessary.”<\/p>\n

This adds to the report from yesterday here: ECB officials see the possibility of rate hikes at the April meeting, June more likely<\/a><\/p>\n

The main issue for Europe now is a massive surge in gas futures amid Iran strikes on key energy facilities in the Gulf region. Dutch TTF gas prices have jumped up to above $60 levels and are keeping some 100% higher than the ECB’s own baseline staff projections. That in itself will call for a big re-evaluation by policymakers on how the outlook will develop next.<\/p>\n

And unless the Middle East conflict settles down in the next one to two weeks, there is every possibility that the ECB may be forced into a preemptive rate hike next month. We’re already seeing the likes of JP Morgan and Barclays call for that today too.<\/p>\n

In terms of market pricing, it is still more of a coin flip at this stage. The odds of a 25 bps rate hike is sitting at ~57% with ~43% priced for no change currently. However, the odds of a rate hike going into June then rise quite dramatically to ~93%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nagel said that the central bank will have to consider a rate hike as early as next month,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":552833,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-552832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552832"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552832\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}