{"id":553011,"date":"2026-03-20T14:58:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T14:58:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/553011\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T14:58:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T14:58:08","slug":"south-australian-election-labor-heads-for-a-win-the-liberals-a-battering-and-one-nation-a-test-of-surging-support-south-australian-election-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/553011\/","title":{"rendered":"South Australian election: Labor heads for a win, the Liberals a battering and One Nation a test of surging support | South Australian election 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a startling encounter in Adelaide this week, One Nation\u2019s Pauline Hanson wagged her finger at the South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas<\/a>, during a chance encounter.<\/p>\n

\u201cWipe your bum,\u201d she said, referring to comments Malinauskas had made about the importance of immigration. \u201cI\u2019d invite you to look at the context,\u201d he responded.<\/p>\n

It was the first time the pair had met and produced one of the oddest moments in an odd election campaign.<\/p>\n

Saturday\u2019s state election will be the first test of the surging support<\/a> for Hanson\u2019s party, which has fuelled and ridden a wave of anti-immigration rhetoric.<\/p>\n

Labor is heading for a thumping win and the Liberals for a battering, with leader Ashton Hurn \u2013 only installed in December \u2013 fronting the already embattled party<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite near-certain victory, Malinauskas has had to work out how to deal with that One Nation<\/a> support, with the party set to get at least one upper house seat. That will be taken by former senator Cory Bernardi, and he may be joined by state president Carlos Quaremba, and possibly Rebecca Hewett in third place.<\/p>\n

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson. Malinauskas said of the party\u2019s anti-immigration stance: \u201cMy message to One Nation voters is: \u2018Who\u2019s going to feed you and bathe you and wipe your bum when you\u2019re 90?\u2019\u201d Photograph: Lukas Coch\/AAPSign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n

The rest of the country is watching keenly to see whether support in the polls translates to the ballot paper and gives One Nation lower house representation.<\/p>\n

The premier\u2019s approach, on the whole, has been to say he understands One Nation supporters\u2019 grievances, to suggest the party does not have the policy answers to their problems, and to deliver Hanson the occasional whack.<\/p>\n

In February he said of the party\u2019s anti-immigration stance:<\/p>\n

\u201cMy message to One Nation voters is: \u2018Who\u2019s going to feed you and bathe you and wipe your bum when you\u2019re 90?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Then, he accidentally ran into Hanson in the foyer of the Advertiser, conveniently gifting the Adelaide newspaper a nice video and neat story, and Hanson the opportunity to finger wag.<\/p>\n

The encounter ended with Hanson saying she respects migrants, contrary to many of her previous observations, and Malinauskas \u2013 who has repeatedly referred to her \u201cQueenslander\u201d status, wishing her \u201csafe travels back to Queensland\u201d.<\/p>\n

A state poll, released on Wednesday, put Labor firmly on the path to victory with a 38% primary vote, and One Nation pipping the Liberals, with 22% to their 19%.<\/p>\n

Just 2.6% of the primary vote at the last state election went to One Nation \u2013 but in 2022, they only had candidates in 19 of the 47 seats. In the seats they contested, the primary vote was 6.6%<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Advertiser\/YouGov poll <\/a>of 1,265 voters gave an identical two-party-preferred vote for Labor v either One Nation or the Liberals \u2013 59% to 41%.<\/p>\n

A Newspoll published on Friday in The Australian<\/a> also had One Nation on 19%, but the Liberal vote lower at 16% and Labor up to 40%. Depending on how that translates on the ground it could put more lower house seats in play.<\/p>\n

Australian National University politics lecturer Jill Sheppard says we\u2019re \u201cprobably seeing a short-term re-alignment in Australian elections\u201d, with One Nation attracting support from voters frustrated with the major parties.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s sending a message to both major parties that voters aren\u2019t going to stand for mediocre governments,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not just a Malinauskas effect, or an SA Liberals effect, this is across state and federal polling. It\u2019s a serious movement.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe parties have been so willing to ignore these sorts of movements in the past.\u201d<\/p>\n

And while Malinauskas and others declare One Nation a policy-free zone, many voters simply don\u2019t care as they lodge their protest votes. More than half of One Nation voters say they \u201cno longer feel represented by the major parties\u201d.<\/p>\n

Just 10% are in it for the policies.<\/p>\n

But they might get into that polling booth, realise Hanson\u2019s not on the ballot, and give their vote to an independent.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems like One Nation are banking on the fact that SA voters like Pauline,\u201d Sheppard says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe problem is when you run this style of presidential campaign in a party system two things happen. Voters work out Pauline\u2019s name is not on the ballot paper, and she subjects herself to more scrutiny.\u201d<\/p>\n

Liberal leader Ashton Hurn has made a \u2018good fist\u2019 of leadership in tough circumstances, but the polling is \u2018just diabolical\u2019, says one political analyst. Photograph: Matt Turner\/AAP<\/p>\n

Support for One Nation at the federal election was highest in the electorates of Barker, Grey and Spence.<\/p>\n

Barker, held by Liberal MP Tony Pasin, covers a large country and coastal zone. Grey is a vast electorate across the state\u2019s outback that should be a Liberal stronghold, although a strong showing from independent Anita Kuss gave Tom Venning a scare last time. Spence covers the mainly working class northern suburbs and is safely held by Labor.<\/p>\n

Federal results may give some clues about where One Nation could try to creep in, but the 10 federal electorates do not map neatly on to the 47 state ones. Preference flows further complicate the picture.<\/p>\n

A DemosAU\/Ace Strategies poll published in InDaily<\/a> on Thursday named the most vulnerable state seats as Flinders on the Eyre Peninsula and Chaffey in the Riverland, both Liberal-held.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe rural seats will be the main focus,\u201d Adelaide University political analyst emeritus professor Clem Macintyre says, but adds there are also independents that could have a good run in rural seats such as Flinders, Finniss (where Lou Nicholson stands a good chance against Liberal MP David Basham), and Kavel.<\/p>\n

There are some interesting scenarios in other rural seats: Mount Gambier sits vacant after independent Troy Bell was charged and convicted<\/a> for theft, while Liberal turned independent MP Nick McBride is contesting MacKillop wearing an ankle bracelet after domestic violence charges<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat happens in MacKillop and Mount Gambier, given Mount Gambier is vacant because the former member\u2019s in prison and the sitting member for MacKillop is only able to campaign in a limited way?\u201d Macintyre asks.<\/p>\n

He also says he\u2019ll be watching how the Liberals go in metropolitan seats including Bragg and Morphett, as well as Heysen, where the Greens think they\u2019re in with a chance.<\/p>\n

Malinauskas\u2019s main pitch is that SA is doing well economically, and that the Liberals are a \u201cshambles\u201d. At a leaders\u2019 debate on Wednesday he grilled Hurn over the Liberals\u2019 mixed net zero policies and her policy to scrap the state\u2019s Indigenous voice to parliament \u2013 sore points for a moderate leader in a party whose branches have been captured by conservatives<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hurn\u2019s lines of attack have centred on the government\u2019s failure to fix ambulance ramping<\/a>, saying the premier is too focused on the \u201crazzle dazzle\u201d of attracting big-ticket events.<\/p>\n

Malinauskas has more broadly come under fire for his government\u2019s handling of the algal bloom<\/a>, his handling of Adelaide writers\u2019 week<\/a>, and various developments in the parklands.<\/p>\n

Macintyre says Hurn has made a \u201cgood fist\u201d of leadership in tough circumstances, but that the polling is \u201cjust diabolical\u201d, opening the way for One Nation to scrap it out in some seats.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it\u2019s a really messy three-way split, including the odds and sods, most of whom are conservatives \u2026 it\u2019s possible they\u2019ll break through and win a seat,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cStranger things have happened.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In a startling encounter in Adelaide this week, One Nation\u2019s Pauline Hanson wagged her finger at the South…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":553012,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":{"0":"post-553011","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-australia","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/553012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}