MMA Fighting Global Rankings<\/a>)<\/p>\nRoman Dolidze (13) vs. Anthony Hernandez (8)<\/p>\n
In case you couldn\u2019t tell already, this is Anthony Hernandez\u2019s fight to lose.<\/p>\n
Hernandez\u2019s pressure game has been on point during his incredible win streak and his opponents just haven\u2019t been able to deal with his aggressive wrestling, dangerous submissions, and endless gas tank. Roman Dolidze shouldn\u2019t have too many answers either, as his plodding style makes him highly susceptible to Hernandez\u2019s game plan.<\/p>\n
Dolidze hits hard and he\u2019s tougher than a two-dollar steak, but that\u2019s about all he brings to this matchup. He won\u2019t be able to out-muscle Hernandez nor outwork him, so his path to victory is narrow. A knockout rush in Round 1 or 2 is certainly possible, but we\u2019ve seen Hernandez survive some scary situations and still come out on top.<\/p>\n
The only real question is if Hernandez can find an extra gear to become the first fighter to finish Dolidze. I don\u2019t see it happening, so look for Hernandez to make a strong statement Saturday, just not strong enough to shake up the UFC\u2019s middleweight title plans anytime soon.<\/p>\n
Steve Erceg (12) vs. Ode Osbourne<\/p>\n
Similar to how we asked if the main event will resonate from a UFC warehouse, it\u2019s fair to ask if anyone will even know if Ode Osbourne picks up one of the low-key upsets of the year should he beat Steve Erceg. This matchup came about when Erceg lost originally scheduled opponents Alex Perez and Hyun Sung Park, and is actually taking place at 135 pounds to accommodate Osbourne stepping in on short notice. It\u2019s a weird situation all around.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also by far the biggest opportunity of Osbourne\u2019s career, with few expecting him to pick up a win over a fighter not far removed from challenging for a UFC title. Osbourne has always tantalized with his explosiveness, toughness, and maturity, but his abilities have never added up to a complete product. If you\u2019re picking Osbourne, you\u2019ll be spending 15 minutes waiting for him to hit on a puncher\u2019s chance.<\/p>\n
Erceg is on a deceptive three-fight losing streak. He was competitive with champion Alexandre Pantoja for five rounds, got caught by Kai Kara-France, and then went five rounds with flyweight great Brandon Moreno. There\u2019s no shame going 0-3 against that murderers\u2019 row of opponents.<\/p>\n
\u201cVinnie Cigs\u201d is saying all the right things about setting the tone in the standup early and he also has a considerable grappling advantage should this fight go to the ground. As cool as it would be to see Osbourne finally snag a marquee win, he\u2019s a long shot for a reason.<\/p>\n
Iasmin Lucindo (8) vs. Angela Hill (13)<\/p>\n
The UFC is in real danger of developmental malpractice when it comes to Iasmin Lucindo.<\/p>\n
At 23 and soon to be with more pro bouts than years on this earth when she fights for the 24th time tonight, Lucindo has already proven she\u2019s a high-level fighter with a bright future. But I always say there\u2019s no substitute for experience and you\u2019d think the matchmakers would have remembered that after watching Lucindo\u2019s past two fights. She eked out a controversial split decision win over Marina Rodriguez, then was clearly outclassed by Amanda Lemos. Both were 37 when they fought Lucindo, arguably past their athletic peak, but inarguably far more seasoned than their college-age adversary.<\/p>\n
Now she takes on the oldest woman on the roster, Angela Hill, who is in fine form. She looked fantastic against Denise Gomes and Luana Pinheiro, put in a fine effort in a loss to Tabatha Ricci, and, yes, finally had a split decision go her way when she beat Ketlen Souza this past February. Hill probably won\u2019t ever be champion or make the UFC Hall of Fame, but few in this business serve as a sterner gatekeeper.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re still a few years away from seeing the best of Lucindo and I\u2019m not convinced the current product can get past Hill. \u201cOverkill\u201d will fight off takedowns while stinging Lucindo on the feet, winning enough exchanges to keep the scores close against the favored Brazilian. She could be headed to Splitty City again, but it\u2019s possible Hill\u2019s luck has turned around and I\u2019m happy to make that pick.<\/p>\n
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez<\/p>\n
Did you know Andre Fili has been with the UFC since 2013, is about to make his 25th appearance for the promotion, and has never headlined a UFC event? That somehow both makes perfect sense and seems strange at the same time.<\/p>\n
His experience will be a huge benefit to him as he faces the inconsistent Christian Rodriguez, a 27-year-old that looks like a world beater when he\u2019s asked to humble undefeated fighters, but struggles taking on more experienced opposition. They don\u2019t come much more experienced than Fili at featherweight.<\/p>\n
Fights aren\u2019t decided by career trends, but Fili is exactly the kind of battle-tested veteran that has given Rodriguez problems. When Rodriguez can\u2019t get his smothering grappling going, his fights turn into coin toss slugfests and that\u2019s not sustainable for long-term success. Fili has always had good takedown defense so this should be decided on the feet.<\/p>\n
Physically, Fili also reminds me of the man who just beat both of these guys, Melquizael Costa. Keep in mind, Rodriguez would ideally be competing at 135 pounds were it not for his issues with the scale, so he\u2019s always dealing with a size and reach deficit, not a great situation to be in when you\u2019re fighting an educated striker like Fili.<\/p>\n
I like Fili to earn the upset decision.<\/p>\n
Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto<\/p>\n
Jean Matsumoto has to have learned a lot from his first loss, a split decision against Rob Font; in particular, I\u2019m hoping he can bridge that gap between martial artist and fighter.<\/p>\n
We talk about this a lot, but when I see a young guy like Matsumoto, I see someone who has all the tools to be a champion, but who is missing that\u2014call it clich\u00e9\u2014killer instinct that one needs to make it all the way to the top. That doesn\u2019t mean you have to be a relentless finisher. Think of champions like Merab Dvalishvili, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Georges St-Pierre, who were more known for suffocating style than their brutality. What they all had in common, though, is the desire and willingness to completely dominate their opponents and leave them with zero options.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s putting a lot of pressure on Matsumoto, who doesn\u2019t turn 26 until November. All I\u2019m saying is that glossy record of his can turn mediocre in a hurry if he doesn\u2019t ramp up that offense a touch.<\/p>\n
Miles Johns has definitely studied Matsumoto\u2019s tape and I expect him to come out fast to force Matsumoto to deal with pressure. Matsumoto\u2019s counter game is solid, but again, he has to come forward and not wait so much. If he takes the fight to Johns, only good things can happen.<\/p>\n
I believe in you, Matsumoto!<\/p>\n
Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan<\/p>\n
One thing you have to give Eryk Anders credit for, he goes in there to scrap and it\u2019s not always pretty.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m curious to see what he brings out of Christian Leroy Duncan, an entertaining striker when he allows himself to open up and someone I truly believe can flirt with a top 15 ranking someday. He has to prove he can fend off grinders like Anders, though. No easy task.<\/p>\n
Anders has always fancied himself a striker, though he\u2019s become smarter about utilizing his grappling and that could be key to frustrating Duncan. He\u2019ll be tempted to brawl, but Duncan will respond by picking Anders apart on the feet and putting him on his backside with a precision strike. This is a good time for \u201cYa Boi\u201d to mix the martial arts.<\/p>\n
Even then, Anders\u2019 wrestling isn\u2019t overwhelming enough to control Duncan for three rounds, so I have Duncan finding the range eventually and scoring a knockout in the second.<\/p>\n
Julius Walker def. Raffael Cerqueira<\/p>\n
Elijah Smith def. Toshiomi Kazama<\/p>\n
Joselyne Edwards def. Priscila Cachoeira<\/p>\n
Uros Medic def. Gilbert Urbina<\/p>\n
Gabriella Fernandes def. Julija Stoliarenko<\/p>\n
Cody Brundage def. Eric McConico<\/p>\n
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