Global economic volatility<\/a> made the Government\u2019s programme of fiscal consolidation more important than ever, Willis said in a statement this morning.<\/p>\n\u201cOver the past two years, this Government has pursued a balanced fiscal strategy \u2013 lifting investment in frontline services like health, education, and law and order, while charting a credible path back to surplus.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat has required hard decisions: $43 billion of savings across the last two Budgets, with further savings planned in Budget 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Government was committed to achieving its three fiscal goals \u2013 reducing spending as a proportion of GDP, returning the headline operating balance measure to surplus and bending the debt curve down, Willis said.<\/p>\n
\u201cTreasury\u2019s preliminary economic forecasts \u2013 prepared before the latest volatility in the Middle East \u2013 showed New Zealand\u2019s economic recovery gaining momentum, with growth of around 3% by early 2027 and a corresponding improvement in revenue that would support a more positive fiscal outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n
Those forecasts would now need to be revised, she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEnergy market disruption adds real uncertainty, and that is precisely why careless spending is off the table.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"New]()
New Zealand’s debt levels influenced Fitch’s latest rating and outlook. <\/p>\n
One of its key rating drivers for New Zealand was delayed debt decline, Fitch wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe forecast general government gross debt to rise to 56% of GDP in the fiscal year ending June 2027 (FY27) from 53.6% in FY25, and to only return to the FY25 ratio in FY30.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis would be well above the outer year (FY27) forecast of 36.1% when we upgraded New Zealand in September 2022. The debt reduction will be driven by a large 2.8pp of GDP improvement in the primary balance by FY30.\u201d<\/p>\n
The authorities projected the net core crown debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 46.9% of GDP by FY29, above the 45.5% projection at the May 2025 fiscal update, they wrote.<\/p>\n
Another rating driver was that fiscal consolidation had been further delayed.<\/p>\n
The December 2025 fiscal update forecast that the Government\u2019s key fiscal metric \u2013 operating balance before gains and losses excluding revenue and expenses of the Accident Compensation Corporation (OBEGALx) \u2013 would return to surplus in FY30, one year later than in the May 2025 fiscal update.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis follows repeated delays in the target year since December 2022 under successive governments.\u201d<\/p>\n
The delays were because of weak economic growth since then and more persistent expenditure than anticipated, they wrote.<\/p>\n
A near-term deficit rise, post-2026 election deficit reduction, Government assets and the economic recovery \u2013 Fitch expected GDP to expand by 2.8% this year and next, after weak growth of 0.2% last year \u2013 were also factors.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe [economic] recovery will be driven by improving household demand, supported by the monetary easing since August 2024 and the continued strong performance of exports.<\/p>\n
\u201cRecent data also suggest the net outward migration over the past few years is reversing in response to, and supporting, the recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, the Iran war posed some risks to the economy, given New Zealand\u2019s \u201csubstantial dependence on energy imports\u201d, Fitch wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cDirect trade linkages to the Middle East are small, but inflationary effects and a broader global weakening could have a negative impact.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Fitch]()
Fitch gave New Zealand a “stable” outlook in August last year. Photo \/ Lionel Bonaventure, AFP<\/p>\n
Monetary policy was also considered, and Fitch expected the Reserve Bank to increase the Official Cash Rate by the end of this year \u2013 although the Iran war could lead to earlier tightening.<\/p>\n
The current account deficit had narrowed to 3.7% of GDP in 2025 from 4.7% in 2024 \u2013 well below the peak deficit of 9% in 2022, but much weaker than the \u201cAA\u201d category median surplus of 8% in 2025, Fitch wrote.<\/p>\n
\u201cNet external debt remains elevated, reflecting a structural savings-investment gap. We forecast net external debt of 51.4% of GDP in 2026, while the \u2018AA\u2019 median is in a net creditor position of 29% of GDP.\u201d<\/p>\n
Household debt risks, including household debt-disposable income and house prices, were also taken into account.<\/p>\n
\u201cFinancial-sector risks are mitigated by prudent macroprudential policies and sound bank capitalisation.\u201d<\/p>\n
In August last year, New Zealand also held onto its AA+ credit rating from Fitch<\/a>, but the agency warned that a slackening culture of fiscal responsibility, a more severe housing market correction, or an unemployment spike could see the rating reduced in future.<\/p>\nThe outlook then was listed as \u201cstable\u201d, meaning the agency wasn\u2019t putting the Government on notice of a downgrade.<\/p>\n
In its report, Fitch raised a handful of concerns, including that the Government\u2019s forecast return to surplus had been delayed again and Treasury\u2019s forecasts showed most of the fiscal consolidation was back-filled to the period after the election.<\/p>\n
Fitch praised National and Labour\u2019s \u201cstrong longer-term fiscal record\u201d, which included a \u201c[c]ommitment to prudent fiscal policies across New Zealand\u2019s political spectrum\u201d as shown by periods of long fiscal consolidation after big shocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"But the AA+ rating reflected New Zealand\u2019s \u201cadvanced and wealthy economy, high governance standards, and robust policy framework\u201d.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":553807,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[273729,30159,64,63,99,273730,56957,24457,13110,101390,164,227319,5587,36227,3127,2652,13260,8936,99905,220173,33470,101409,19430,28221,3205,22671],"class_list":["post-553806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-aa","tag-agency","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-citing","tag-concerns","tag-credit","tag-debt","tag-downgraded","tag-economy","tag-fitch","tag-from","tag-negative","tag-new","tag-on","tag-outlook","tag-over","tag-puts","tag-rating","tag-ratings","tag-reduction","tag-rising","tag-stable","tag-zealand","tag-zealands"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553806\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/553807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}