on track to enter parliament<\/a>.<\/p>\nThere are at least three other seats that Pauline Hanson’s party stands a real chance of winning.<\/p>\n
In all three of these seats, we are yet to see a preference count between the top two candidates.<\/p>\n
In Hammond, One Nation candidate Robert Roylance is the favourite to win.<\/p>\n
The craft spirit distiller and ferry operator is narrowly behind the Labor candidate, Mid Murray Mayor Simone Bailey, on the first-preference count.<\/p>\n
But the Liberal Party and independent Airlie Keen (who has 10 per cent of the vote) recommended voters preference One Nation.<\/p>\n
The ABC is estimating preferences between Labor and One Nation, and if the actual flow of preferences is anything like those estimates, One Nation will go on to win.<\/p>\n
In the south-east seat of MacKillop, One Nation candidate Jason Virgo is ahead of Liberal candidate Rebekah Rosser by more than 12 percentage points.<\/p>\n
Labor and the outgoing independent MP, Nick McBride, both have about 15 per cent of the vote, and their preferences will be crucial in determining the outcome.<\/p>\n
The ABC is estimating preferences between One Nation and the Liberal Party.<\/p>\n
On the Yorke Peninsula, One Nation also leads the primary count in Narungga.<\/p>\n
It is a significant lead, but preferences may favour the Liberal Party.<\/p>\n
Can One Nation’s candidate, photographer and make-up artist Chantelle Thomas, stay far enough ahead to win?<\/p>\n
Until we see a preference count, this seat is likely to remain in doubt.<\/p>\n
Adelaide marginal seats<\/p>\n
There are a couple of Labor-Liberal contests in Adelaide’s marginal seats that are too close to call at this stage.<\/p>\n
On election night, Labor appeared to be ahead in the beachside seat of Morphett, but that was without a couple of polling places in Glenelg.<\/p>\n
When they reported on Sunday afternoon, it dramatically tightened the count.<\/p>\n
As of Sunday evening, sitting member and former AFL player Stephen Patterson led the preference count by eight votes.<\/p>\n
Further east, in the Adelaide Hills-based seat of Heysen, the deputy leader of the Liberal Party Josh Teague has regained a narrow lead.<\/p>\n
He leads Labor’s Marisa Bell by just over 100 votes.<\/p>\n
Further counting of postal and declaration votes will be required to confirm the outcome in both of these seats.<\/p>\n
Northern Adelaide<\/p>\n
Across both the northern and southern suburbs of Adelaide, One Nation has replaced the Liberal Party as Labor’s main opponent.<\/p>\n
In most cases, these remain safe Labor seats.<\/p>\n
But in the Gawler and Munno Para-based seat of Light, the government appears to have had its strongest challenge.<\/p>\n
As of Sunday night, One Nation has about 34 per cent of the first preference votes, a few points behind Labor, which has just shy of 38 per cent.<\/p>\n
Labor candidate James Agness appears to be ahead on the ABC’s estimate of preferences, but we need to see a preference count between Labor and One Nation to be sure of the outcome.<\/p>\n
Regional independent races<\/p>\n
Finally, there are three regional seats featuring independents, including the final seat that One Nation has a chance of winning.<\/p>\n
Finniss, the seat centred on Victor Harbor and Goolwa, is a rematch between Liberal MP David Basham and independent Lou Nicholson.<\/p>\n
Ms Nicholson is ahead on the primary count. However, Mr Basham performed significantly better on the primary count in the Victor Harbor early voting centre than he did on election day.<\/p>\n
That booth is yet to report a preference count, and so this race may narrow from here.<\/p>\n
It is also possible, although probably unlikely, for Ms Nicholson to be overtaken by the Labor candidate in this seat, which would make this a more complicated count.<\/p>\n
In Kavel, the Adelaide Hills seat containing Mount Barker, we are getting a preference count between Labor and independent Matt Schultz.<\/p>\n
If those two candidates are the final pairing, it is likely that Schultz will win.<\/p>\n
But it remains possible that the Liberal Party or One Nation could overtake Schultz and knock him out of the contest.<\/p>\n
The seat of Stuart, currently held by independent MP Geoff Brock, also remains too close to call.<\/p>\n
This seat was vastly redrawn in the most recent electoral redistribution, now taking in much of the far north, as well as Port Pirie.<\/p>\n
The Liberal and Labor votes are both down, and One Nation has picked up nearly 28 per cent of first preferences.<\/p>\n
On the ABC’s estimate of preferences, Geoff Brock is in the lead, but further counting is required to be sure of the winner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Vote counting in all electorates in South Australia will continue from this morning, with the results in nine…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":558006,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3443,275410,4268,43,44,60504,14754,69113,2177,41,39,42,40,19400,196411],"class_list":["post-558005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-adelaide","tag-count","tag-election","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-one-nation","tag-pauline-hanson","tag-result","tag-state","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories","tag-voting","tag-who-won"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/558005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=558005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/558005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/558006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=558005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=558005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=558005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}