{"id":567928,"date":"2026-03-27T14:02:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/567928\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T14:02:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:02:17","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-friday-roll-with-cole-ragans-and-the-royals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/567928\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Friday: Roll with Cole Ragans and the Royals"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyMar 27, 2026, 09:30 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Friday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Hunter Goodman<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+217)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.43 EV
One reason to bet this: Goodman’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) has been 116.2 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile.<\/p>\n

Max Muncy<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+139)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.64 EV
One reason to bet this: In today’s matchup, Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s eighth-deepest RF fences, especially given that he hits flies to the pull field at a 41.3% rate (99th percentile).<\/p>\n

Josh Naylor<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 TB (-148)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Naylor has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields — a crucial skill for batting average — ranking in just the 13th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score since the start of 2025.<\/p>\n

Friday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Cam Schlittler<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.18 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the second-best for hitting out of all the games on today’s slate.<\/p>\n

Cole Ragans<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 ER (+120)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.90 EV
One reason to bet this: The Atlanta Braves<\/a> have the fourth-worst projected lineup today in terms of overall offensive ability.<\/p>\n

Kevin Gausman<\/a> | OVER 5.5 K (-122)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.18 EV
One reason to bet this: The Athletics<\/a> have three hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (over 27%) projected underlying K% — the “other” Max Muncy<\/a>, Nick Kurtz<\/a> and Denzel Clarke<\/a>.<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

OPP.<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Cam Schlittler<\/p>\n

@ SF<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

51.9<\/p>\n

-7.92<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-101<\/p>\n

-7.92<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

9.02<\/p>\n

5.87<\/p>\n

Robbie Ray<\/p>\n

vs. NYY<\/p>\n

+109<\/p>\n

48.1<\/p>\n

-0.14<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-129<\/p>\n

-0.14<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

-14.02<\/p>\n

Luis Severino<\/p>\n

@ TOR<\/p>\n

+144<\/p>\n

37.6<\/p>\n

-10.04<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+101<\/p>\n

-10.04<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

9.28<\/p>\n

-5.41<\/p>\n

Kevin Gausman<\/p>\n

vs. ATH<\/p>\n

-175<\/p>\n

62.4<\/p>\n

-0.80<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-132<\/p>\n

-0.80<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-3.36<\/p>\n

Kyle Freeland<\/p>\n

@ MIA<\/p>\n

+163<\/p>\n

45.6<\/p>\n

19.90<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

19.90<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

8.71<\/p>\n

8.60<\/p>\n

Sandy Alcantara<\/p>\n

vs. COL<\/p>\n

-199<\/p>\n

54.4<\/p>\n

-18.25<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

-18.25<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

-16.57<\/p>\n

Cole Ragans<\/p>\n

@ ATL<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

52.1<\/p>\n

14.93<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-133<\/p>\n

14.93<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O +102<\/p>\n

8.74<\/p>\n

11.30<\/p>\n

Chris Sale<\/p>\n

vs. KC<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

47.9<\/p>\n

-19.25<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

-19.25<\/p>\n

U -122<\/p>\n

-18.30<\/p>\n

Yusei Kikuchi<\/p>\n

@ HOU<\/p>\n

+135<\/p>\n

44.4<\/p>\n

3.73<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

3.73<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

9.31<\/p>\n

-4.00<\/p>\n

Michael Burrows<\/p>\n

vs. LAA<\/p>\n

-163<\/p>\n

55.6<\/p>\n

-9.87<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

-9.87<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

-5.02<\/p>\n

Framber Valdez<\/p>\n

@ SD<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

54.1<\/p>\n

12.22<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-153<\/p>\n

12.22<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

7.06<\/p>\n

-18.37<\/p>\n

Michael King<\/p>\n

vs. DET<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

46.0<\/p>\n

-19.30<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+117<\/p>\n

-19.30<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

8.59<\/p>\n

Gavin Williams<\/p>\n

@ SEA<\/p>\n

+141<\/p>\n

42.1<\/p>\n

2.14<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

2.14<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -120<\/p>\n

7.23<\/p>\n

-9.80<\/p>\n

George Kirby<\/p>\n

vs. CLE<\/p>\n

-171<\/p>\n

57.9<\/p>\n

-8.68<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-8.68<\/p>\n

U +100<\/p>\n

1.60<\/p>\n

Ryne Nelson<\/p>\n

@ LAD<\/p>\n

+189<\/p>\n

33.5<\/p>\n

-5.67<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

-5.67<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

9.19<\/p>\n

-5.62<\/p>\n

Emmet Sheehan<\/p>\n

vs. ARI<\/p>\n

-232<\/p>\n

66.5<\/p>\n

-3.61<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

-3.61<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

-3.32<\/p>\n

Top betting trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels<\/a> Team Total UNDER
The Angels have been under in seven straight away games (+7.30 Units \/ 87% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -110<\/p>\n

Atlanta Braves<\/a> 1st 5 Innings (F5) Team Total UNDER
The Braves have been under in each of their last five home contests (+5.00 Units \/ 85% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +114<\/p>\n

Athletics<\/a> Game Total UNDER
In 13 of the last 20 games involving the Athletics, the game has been under (+6.25 Units \/ 29% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -102<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyMar 27, 2026, 09:30 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":567929,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,85],"class_list":["post-567928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=567928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567928\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/567929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=567928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=567928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=567928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}