{"id":568015,"date":"2026-03-27T14:57:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/568015\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T14:57:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:57:15","slug":"the-nhl-playoff-races-heat-up-plus-another-trophy-for-mackinnon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/568015\/","title":{"rendered":"The NHL playoff races heat up. Plus: Another trophy for MacKinnon?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning, hockey folks. Another busy one with 13 games last night, so let\u2019s get you up to date on what\u2019s happening around the league as the regular season winds down.<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s up and who\u2019s down in the stretch run?\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to believe, but there are only 22 days left until the postseason. Even that close to the finish line, there is a lot of spots up for grabs, with nearly half the league still vying to make it in.<\/p>\n

Here are the teams I think we can likely call at this point, based on\u00a0the probabilities<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Nine locks to\u00a0make\u00a0the playoffs\u00a0(94% chance or higher)<\/p>\n

East: Carolina, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Montreal
West: Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Anaheim, Edmonton<\/p>\n

Eight locks to\u00a0miss\u00a0the playoffs\u00a0(6% chance or lower)<\/p>\n

East: Toronto, N.Y. Rangers, Florida, New Jersey
West: Vancouver, Calgary, Chicago, St. Louis<\/p>\n

That leaves another 15 teams still in play, including 13 that were in action last night (Boston and Detroit being idle). Excluding the 17 locks I mentioned above, here are the teams trying to make a playoff push that shifted their odds last night:<\/p>\n

East\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh 80%\u00a0\"\u2197\ufe0f\"\u00a085%
Columbus 91%\u00a0\"\u2198\ufe0f\"\u00a082%<\/p>\n

Ottawa 76%\u00a0\"\u2198\ufe0f\"\u00a072%
N.Y. Islanders 37%\u00a0\"\u2197\ufe0f\"\u00a048%<\/p>\n

Washington 6%\u00a0\"\u2197\ufe0f\" 7%<\/p>\n

The Penguins\u2019 4-3 shootout win over the beat-up Senators was one of the night\u2019s biggest results, especially with how many teams are after what looks like four open spots in the East.<\/p>\n

That\u00a0was\u00a0five openings until the Canadiens toppled red-hot Columbus 2-1 on Zachary Bolduc\u2019s third-period goal, lifting Montreal to 90 points with 11 games to go.
The Islanders and Capitals, meanwhile, pulled out really impressive wins over strong West teams Dallas and Utah, beating them 2-1 and 7-4, to improve their playoff chances.<\/p>\n

West<\/p>\n

Utah 95%\u00a0\"\u2198\ufe0f\"\u00a091%
Los Angeles 58%\u00a0\"\u2197\ufe0f\"\u00a068%<\/p>\n

Nashville 39%\u00a0\"\u2198\ufe0f\"\u00a027%<\/p>\n

Seattle 5%\u00a0\"\u2197\ufe0f\"\u00a010%<\/p>\n

Winnipeg 16%\u00a0\"\u2198\ufe0f\"\u00a09%
San Jose 11%\u00a0\"\u2198\ufe0f\"\u00a09%<\/p>\n

Utah would have been firmly in the playoff lock category with a win, but allowed four third-period goals at home against Washington. Edmonton, meanwhile, jumped into the lock group with a 4-3 overtime win over struggling Vegas (five losses in its last six).<\/p>\n

The Kings made short work of the last-place Canucks in a 4-0 win that improved them to 5-3-4 in their last 12 games, enough to boost them in the West\u2019s wild-card turtle derby in part thanks to newcomer Artemi Panarin\u2019s 15 points in that span.<\/p>\n

And the Kraken\u2019s gritty 4-3 overtime win over Tampa Bay keeps their hopes alive, while Nashville, Winnipeg and San Jose all had tough losses against New Jersey, Colorado and St. Louis.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Bruce Bennett \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n

Three can\u2019t-miss stories this week\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

We may be in this odd in-between time after the trade deadline and before the playoffs get going, but my colleagues have certainly pumped out the gold of late.<\/p>\n

Here were a few pieces that were my favorites the past few days:<\/p>\n

The Aura Shift: Macklin Celebrini and the NHL\u2019s Gen Z takeover
<\/a>By Dan Robson<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re born before 1990,\u00a0this one<\/a>\u00a0will make you feel extra old.<\/p>\n

Key quote:\u00a0\u201cA decade ago when a guy was growing up through youth hockey and college or junior, they learned how to play the game. Hockey sense was taught early, and skills were taught late \u2014 and now hockey sense is taught late.\u201d<\/p>\n

The NHL\u2019s growing goaltending crisis: \u2018Everybody\u2019s making bad decisions\u2019
<\/a>By Harman Dayal<\/p>\n

An interesting look<\/a>\u00a0at why so many formerly good goalies with big contracts have bad numbers.<\/p>\n

Key quote:\u00a0\u201cInterestingly, there is zero statistical correlation between how much each team spends on its goaltending tandem this season and the club\u2019s overall goaltending results.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

How bad can an NHL team be at five-on-five and still compete for the Stanley Cup?<\/a><\/p>\n

By Murat Ates and Shayna Goldman<\/p>\n

Is your team a dark horse to do damage in the playoffs, even as a lower seed? Here are\u00a0some numbers<\/a>\u00a0that could back that up.<\/p>\n

Key quote:\u00a0\u201cStanley Cup champions tend to be elite five-on-five teams. All but one Cup champion going back to 2007-08 won those minutes during the regular season before its championship.\u201d<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s move on \u2026<\/p>\n

\"\ud83d\udca1\"This week\u2019s MirTrivia: Alex Ovechkin hit a bit of a weird milestone earlier this week when he became the second player to ever net 1,000 goals, regular season and playoffs combined. (Wayne Gretzky has the record with 1,016.)<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t often look at combined stats like this in the NHL. But our trivia today gets into three players who highlight how different regular season and playoff production can be:<\/p>\n

Which player with 600-plus regular-season goals in their career has scored the fewest playoff goals (only 21)?<\/p>\n

Which two players in the all-time top 10 in career playoff goals failed to get to the 500-goal mark in the regular season?<\/p>\n

Answers at the bottom.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Charles LeClaire \/ Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Should MacKinnon be up for the Selke, too?<\/p>\n

Our graphman, Dom Luszczyszyn, has been busy this week breaking down a few interesting awards-related trends, including\u00a0the rise of the MVP defenseman<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0the need for a defensive defenseman award<\/a>\u00a0(and who should win it this year).<\/p>\n

I\u2019m on board with both of those, including the idea that a blueliner should be winning the Hart more than once every 54 years. (Only Chris Pronger has since Bobby Orr in 1972.)<\/p>\n

Dom also served up\u00a0his regular awards watch column<\/a>, and it highlighted just how tight things are going to be for league MVP, the Norris, the Vezina and the Art Ross. In fact, basically everything except the Calder \u2013 where Isles wunderkind Matthew Schaefer is running away with things \u2013 could be tight.<\/p>\n

The biggest mystery, however, is what\u2019s going to happen with the Selke for the top defensive forward. The threesome of Aleksander Barkov, Patrice Bergeron and Anze Kopitar has won it 10 of the last 12 years, but with one injured, one retired and the third playing out his final season, the field is wide open for someone from the new guard.<\/p>\n

Dom\u2019s leading candidate is\u00a0Montreal\u2019s Nick Suzuki<\/a>, who\u2019s one of the league\u2019s top scorers this year (86 points) and has finished 13th in Selke voting the past two years. After Suzuki, however, it\u2019s an eclectic list, including several pure checkers who haven\u2019t topped 40 points. (No one who fits that description has won the Selke\u00a0since Kris Draper in 2004<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Dom calls this particular race \u201cweird\u201d given the absence of Barkov and other star-level competition for Suzuki. But one really interesting candidate is Nathan MacKinnon, who has put together a terrific all-around season with one of the highest defensive ratings among all forwards. What he doesn\u2019t do is kill penalties for the Avs, which could leave him off many writers\u2019 ballots.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m going to stay consistent with how I\u2019ve always voted, which is that there needs to be some penalty killing to qualify,\u201d Dom says. \u201cBut it\u2019s definitely a discussion worth having because there are some players \u2013 Auston Matthews five years ago or Leon Draisaitl last season \u2013 who were strong enough to warrant merit based on their five-on-five play but were too important (to their teams) offensively to waste time in a PK role.<\/p>\n

\u201cPerhaps an exception can be made. Sometimes not being used on the PK is telling, but there are times where it\u2019s not born out of ability, but optimization.\u201d<\/p>\n

Doug Gilmour and Sergei Fedorov (twice) won the Selke during 100-point campaigns, so it\u2019s not unheard of. Food for thought.<\/p>\n

Coast to Coast<\/p>\n

\"\ud83d\ude1f\"\u00a0Sidney Crosby\u00a0left last night\u2019s game against the Senators<\/a>\u00a0with an injury, which would be a crushing loss for a Penguins team on the verge of a shocking playoff berth.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83d\udc4e\"\u00a0Harman Dayal provides his annual look at\u00a0the most disappointing players this season<\/a>. Surprisingly, it\u2019s not all Maple Leafs.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83e\udebf\"\u00a0We\u2019re out of the bottom half in Scott Wheeler\u2019s\u00a02026 NHL prospect pool rankings<\/a>, and the now-mighty-again Anaheim Ducks are No. 14. Maybe Goldberg makes it next year.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83d\udcf0\"\u00a0This year\u2019s PWHL draft rankings\u00a0are heavy on U.S. talent<\/a>, with the top Canadian all the way down in ninth.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc40 Power rankings<\/a> look at a focus for every team as the playoffs approach.<\/p>\n

\"\ud83c\udfa4\"\u00a0On a special edition of\u00a0The Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series<\/a>, we preview the CHL playoffs and the NCAA men\u2019s hockey championship, including a debate on whether Gavin McKenna or Canadiens prospect Michael Hage is the best college player heading into the tournament.<\/p>\n

MirTrivia Answer<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s see how well you know your hockey history.<\/p>\n

The 600-goal scorer with the fewest career playoff goals is\u00a0Marcel Dionne, who piled up 731 regular-season goals<\/a>\u00a0but scored just 21 times in 49 postseason games. (Jarome Iginla is second with 37 playoff goals.)<\/p>\n

And the two top 10 playoff scorers who didn\u2019t make it to the 500-goal club?\u00a0Glenn Anderson\u00a0(498 regular-season goals and 92 in the playoffs) and\u00a0Claude Lemieux\u00a0(379 and 80).<\/p>\n

\"\ud83d\udceb\"\u00a0Love Red Light?\u00a0Check out\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning, hockey…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":568016,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[556],"tags":[64,63,575,85],"class_list":["post-568015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=568015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568015\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/568016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=568015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=568015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=568015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}