{"id":570668,"date":"2026-03-28T20:42:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T20:42:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/570668\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T20:42:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T20:42:29","slug":"why-chinese-student-numbers-are-expected-to-take-a-sharp-turn-for-the-worse-in-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/570668\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Chinese student numbers are expected to take ‘a sharp turn for the worse’ in Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chinese students remain the largest international student cohort in Australia, and they continue to provide the lion’s share of revenue for Australian universities.<\/p>\n

But experts have warned that could soon change.<\/p>\n

In February, Department of Home Affairs data confirmed forecasts that Chinese student numbers to Australia have been declining.<\/p>\n

It showed there was a 25 per cent drop in the number of student applications over the first half of the 2025-26 financial year following a 12 per cent decline over the 2024-25 financial year.<\/p>\n

The data came after a report from Moody’s Ratings in January predicted Chinese student numbers in Australia would take “sharp turn for the worse” after 2030.<\/p>\n

Experts say there are many factors driving this trend.<\/p>\n

‘People more selective’ amid uncertainty<\/p>\n

Grace Li, a law faculty associate dean at the University of Technology, Sydney, also looks after Chinese international student recruitment for the law faculty.<\/p>\n

She said one factor was China’s uncertain domestic economy.<\/p>\n

\"a<\/p>\n

Grace Li said Australian degrees were no longer a “golden ticket” to a good job. (Supplied)<\/p>\n

“People are more selective and more sensitive in making a major financial decision in terms of sending their child to study abroad,” she said.<\/p>\n

Melbourne-based migration and education agent Sean Dong said studying in Australia could cost about $50,000 to $60,000 a year.<\/p>\n

Combined with rising living expenses, he said it was “a significant investment”.<\/p>\n

\"a<\/p>\n

Sean Dong said it was a “significant investment” for international students to study in Australia. (ABC News: Lachlan Bennett)<\/p>\n

Professor Li said Australia’s skyrocketing Temporary Graduate visa application fee \u2014 which recently doubled<\/a> \u2014 could soon be another factor.<\/p>\n

Student numbers are also predicted to decline further with China’s falling birth rate.<\/p>\n

“What we’re seeing is demographic decline \u2026 which poses risks to long-term demand [for Australian universities],” said Moody’s analyst Matthew Circosta.<\/p>\n

The agency said Australian universities should look at pivoting away from the Chinese market.<\/p>\n

China’s plunging birth rate combined with its aging population have also fuelled predictions of a long-term decline in the country’s economic growth.<\/p>\n

As of October 2025, there were 192,225 Chinese international students in Australia, accounting for 23 per cent of the total 833,041 international students, according to Department of Education data.<\/p>\n

More students studying closer to home\"A<\/p>\n

The “halo effect” of an overseas degree has vanished in the eyes of many Chinese employers, experts say. (Unsplash: Element5 Digital)<\/p>\n

Professor Li said an Australian university degree was once seen as “golden ticket” to a good job, but that was no longer the case.<\/p>\n

A tightening domestic labour market also means jobs could be harder to get.<\/p>\n

Official figures showed the youth unemployment rate in China had been steadily increasing from 10 per cent in 2018 to a peak of 21.3 per cent in 2023.<\/p>\n

While it has since eased, it remains relatively high at 16.3 per cent.<\/p>\n

In China, overseas graduates are also no longer guaranteed high-paying jobs, and the “halo effect” of an overseas degree has vanished in the eyes of many Chinese employers, experts say.<\/p>\n

Chinese students are not just turning away from Australia, but also from the United States and Canada, according to a report from the Institute of International Education released in November.<\/p>\n

\"a<\/p>\n

Natalia Tan said many of her peers were now opting for universities in Asia. (Supplied: Natalia Tan)<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a 2025 report from consultancy group HighMark Group in China found more Chinese students are choosing universities in Asia.<\/p>\n

Natalia Tan, who chose to study law at China’s Peking University in 2019, said tuition fees in Australia were already expensive when she had been considering her options.<\/p>\n

Ms Tan said many of her peers were now opting for universities in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or South Korea.<\/p>\n

She said the customs and culture were more familiar in those countries, so “it was easier to adapt”.<\/p>\n

Peking University’s juris doctor program also ranked higher than Australian universities’ programs, she added.<\/p>\n

\"Student<\/p>\n

Australian universities are expanding overseas. (Supplied: Pexels.com)<\/p>\n

Since 2019, the number of Chinese universities in the world’s top 100 has surged, according to major rankings.<\/p>\n

Top universities in China, including Tsinghua, Peking University and Fudan have all improved significantly.<\/p>\n

Moody’s analyst Mr Circosta said the rise in the competitiveness of Chinese institutions would likely continue to reduce demand for overseas education.<\/p>\n

Studying in Australia encourages ‘open-mindedness’\"a<\/p>\n

Iris Yu is studying law in Sydney. (Supplied: Iris Yu)<\/p>\n

Chinese students already in Australia say there are benefits to studying here.<\/p>\n

Iris Yu is set to complete her bachelor’s degree in law at the end of this year.<\/p>\n

“The main purpose of studying in Australia was that I wanted to go out and see the world, to experience it for myself,” Ms Yu said.<\/p>\n

“Sydney is quite international, and I have made friends from all over the world.”<\/p>\n

For Ms Yu, three years in Australia have provided a lesson in “open-mindedness”\u2014 a quality she believes is a “deep-level” takeaway that can only be gained through immersion.<\/p>\n

“These are things that can only be truly experienced after living abroad, especially in Australia, for a period of time.”<\/p>\n

How Australian universities are responding\"Peking<\/p>\n

More Chinese universities are ranking among the top universities in the world. (Supplied)<\/p>\n

In response to questions about the Moody Rating’s forecast, Universities Australia chief executive Luke Sheehy said international education in Australia was a major success story.<\/p>\n

“It’s essential that we protect and strengthen this sector through stable, predictable policy settings that keep Australia competitive,” Mr Sheehy said.<\/p>\n

Analysts said universities needed to diversify their income sources, and not rely so heavily on international students.<\/p>\n

“Diversification matters \u2026 but it takes time and certainty,” Mr Sheey said.<\/p>\n

“It should strengthen the sector, not come at the expense of long-standing relationships.”<\/p>\n

\"Universities<\/p>\n

Universities Australia chief executive officer Luke Sheehy says diversifying requires time and certainty. (ABC News)<\/p>\n

Professor Li urged Australia to be proactive if it wanted to continue attracting international students \u2014 which some critics have described as “cash cows”.<\/p>\n

“If we don’t take action, this ‘cash cow’ is going to die,” she said.<\/p>\n

She suggested expanding transnational education by delivering Australian degrees in China or other countries.<\/p>\n

“That allows more students to access [Australian] education without the full cost of studying abroad,” she said.<\/p>\n

China has recently approved a record number of joint education programs, including several involving Australian institutions.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Australian universities are expanding offshore campuses in Asia, including in Malaysia and Vietnam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Chinese students remain the largest international student cohort in Australia, and they continue to provide the lion’s share…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":570669,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1724,64,63,26722,99,512,4690,32445,39600,280281,230410,181,29365,4693,280280,27697,29166,58312,28747,5327,16876,6620,22473],"class_list":["post-570668","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-asia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-birth-rate","tag-business","tag-china","tag-chinese","tag-costs","tag-decline","tag-declining-population","tag-decrease","tag-employment","tag-fees","tag-job","tag-lodgement","tag-numbers","tag-prospect","tag-ranking","tag-revenue","tag-students","tag-universities","tag-university","tag-visa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570668\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/570669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}