{"id":572332,"date":"2026-03-29T15:37:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T15:37:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/572332\/"},"modified":"2026-03-29T15:37:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T15:37:19","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-sunday-six-prop-bets-to-make-as-low-scoring-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/572332\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Sunday: Six prop bets to make as low scoring expected"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyMar 29, 2026, 04:00 PM<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Sunday’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Nico Hoerner<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+123)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Hoerner’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to study power) grades out in the fourth percentile at 87.6 mph.<\/p>\n

Edouard Julien<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+109)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Julien is at a disadvantage, facing the leagues ninth-deepest LF fences given that he hits fly balls to the opposite field at a 37.5% rate (96th percentile).<\/p>\n

Gary Sanchez<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+140)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.24 EV
One reason to bet this: The Chicago White Sox<\/a> outfield defense grades out as the fourth-best today.<\/p>\n

Sunday’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Tatsuya Imai<\/a> | OVER 5.5 K (+102)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.22 EV
One reason to bet this: Houston grades out as the No. 4 venue in the league for strikeouts.<\/p>\n

Connelly Early<\/a> | UNDER 6.5 K (-155)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.65 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system expects Connelly Early to be limited by a pitch count of 85 today.<\/p>\n

Shota Imanaga<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-173)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Wrigley Field has the seventh-highest fences in the league..<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

OPP.<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Bailey Ober<\/p>\n

@ BAL<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

42.1<\/p>\n

-4.00<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-4.00<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

8.64<\/p>\n

-21.02<\/p>\n

Shane Baz<\/p>\n

vs. MIN<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

57.9<\/p>\n

-4.69<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-114<\/p>\n

-4.69<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

11.07<\/p>\n

Seth Lugo<\/p>\n

@ ATL<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

43.3<\/p>\n

-1.32<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

-1.32<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.80<\/p>\n

-2.03<\/p>\n

Grant Holmes<\/p>\n

vs. KC<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

56.7<\/p>\n

-6.61<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

-6.61<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-7.09<\/p>\n

MacKenzie Gore<\/p>\n

@ PHI<\/p>\n

+139<\/p>\n

41.1<\/p>\n

-1.87<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-109<\/p>\n

-1.87<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

7.79<\/p>\n

-15.93<\/p>\n

Jesus Luzardo<\/p>\n

vs. TEX<\/p>\n

-168<\/p>\n

58.9<\/p>\n

-5.98<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-119<\/p>\n

-5.98<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

6.45<\/p>\n

Luis Morales<\/p>\n

@ TOR<\/p>\n

+129<\/p>\n

44.9<\/p>\n

2.64<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

2.64<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O +100<\/p>\n

8.82<\/p>\n

-17.10<\/p>\n

Eric Lauer<\/p>\n

vs. ATH<\/p>\n

-156<\/p>\n

55.1<\/p>\n

-9.45<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

-9.45<\/p>\n

U -120<\/p>\n

7.34<\/p>\n

Jose Quintana<\/p>\n

@ MIA<\/p>\n

+159<\/p>\n

39.4<\/p>\n

1.40<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+108<\/p>\n

1.40<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

8.26<\/p>\n

-8.04<\/p>\n

Max Meyer<\/p>\n

vs. COL<\/p>\n

-194<\/p>\n

60.6<\/p>\n

-7.78<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-140<\/p>\n

-7.78<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

-1.10<\/p>\n

Connelly Early<\/p>\n

@ CIN<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

59.1<\/p>\n

3.77<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

3.77<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

8.78<\/p>\n

-5.24<\/p>\n

Rhett Lowder<\/p>\n

vs. BOS<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

40.9<\/p>\n

-14.37<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

-14.37<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-3.54<\/p>\n

Carmen Mlodzinski<\/p>\n

@ NYM<\/p>\n

+149<\/p>\n

38.8<\/p>\n

-3.96<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+101<\/p>\n

-3.96<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

8.05<\/p>\n

-10.31<\/p>\n

Nolan McLean<\/p>\n

vs. PIT<\/p>\n

-181<\/p>\n

61.2<\/p>\n

-4.63<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-131<\/p>\n

-4.63<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

1.07<\/p>\n

Anthony Kay<\/p>\n

@ MIL<\/p>\n

+141<\/p>\n

45.7<\/p>\n

10.57<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-104<\/p>\n

10.57<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

8.36<\/p>\n

-1.78<\/p>\n

Brandon Sproat<\/p>\n

vs. CWS<\/p>\n

-171<\/p>\n

54.3<\/p>\n

-14.23<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-125<\/p>\n

-14.23<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-7.34<\/p>\n

Jack Kochanowicz<\/p>\n

@ HOU<\/p>\n

+149<\/p>\n

43.1<\/p>\n

6.70<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

6.70<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -105<\/p>\n

8.84<\/p>\n

-18.64<\/p>\n

Tatsuya Imai<\/p>\n

vs. LAA<\/p>\n

-181<\/p>\n

57.0<\/p>\n

-11.28<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-135<\/p>\n

-11.28<\/p>\n

U -115<\/p>\n

9.05<\/p>\n

Steven Matz<\/p>\n

@ STL<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

47.4<\/p>\n

-12.20<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+106<\/p>\n

-12.20<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -102<\/p>\n

7.64<\/p>\n

-17.62<\/p>\n

Dustin May<\/p>\n

vs. TB<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

52.6<\/p>\n

4.22<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-137<\/p>\n

4.22<\/p>\n

U -118<\/p>\n

7.89<\/p>\n

Jake Irvin<\/p>\n

@ CHC<\/p>\n

+203<\/p>\n

31.4<\/p>\n

-7.77<\/p>\n

+2.0<\/p>\n

-127<\/p>\n

-7.77<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

9.22<\/p>\n

-16.14<\/p>\n

Shota Imanaga<\/p>\n

vs. WSH<\/p>\n

-252<\/p>\n

68.6<\/p>\n

-2.84<\/p>\n

-2.0<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

-2.84<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

8.15<\/p>\n

Slade Cecconi<\/p>\n

@ SEA<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

46.2<\/p>\n

1.88<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-128<\/p>\n

1.88<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

8.05<\/p>\n

-7.68<\/p>\n

Emerson Hancock<\/p>\n

vs. CLE<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

53.8<\/p>\n

-9.12<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-101<\/p>\n

-9.12<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

-1.17<\/p>\n

Top betting trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

Top Betting Trends<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels<\/a> Team Total UNDER<\/p>\n

On the road, the Angels team total has gone under in seven straight games. (+7.30 Units \/ 87% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +100<\/p>\n

Miami Marlins<\/a> Moneyline<\/p>\n

The Marlins’ moneyline has won in 11 of their past 15 games, (+9.50 Units \/ 57% ROI). Current odds: -194<\/p>\n

Chicago Cubs<\/a> 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line<\/p>\n

The Cubs’ run line has won in 14 of their past 20 games at home. (+7.75 Units \/ 33% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +105<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyMar 29, 2026, 04:00 PM CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":572333,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,85],"class_list":["post-572332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=572332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572332\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/572333"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=572332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=572332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=572332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}