will be shut down for the rest of the season<\/a>. Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell, Evan Rodrigues, Niko Mikkola and Uvis Balinskis all not playing does a lot for Florida\u2019s loss probability.<\/p>\nJust how big is the difference? Florida\u2019s roster on Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators had a Net Rating of minus-57.2, one of the five worst marks in the league. With a fully healthy roster, that shoots up to plus-37.8, a top-five mark. (They still won 6-3.)<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll never know whether any of those players would\u2019ve been \u2018playoff healthy,\u2019 but either way, it\u2019s the best course of action for an elite team in an off-year with a top-10 pick hanging in the balance. The Panthers currently have an 89 percent chance of hanging on to it.<\/p>\n
5. New roles for Dahlin and Power<\/p>\n
Since the Olympic break, all eyes have been on Rasmus Dahlin, who has snuck into the Norris conversation with some otherworldly play. He has 19 points in 18 games and a 60 percent xG rate to go with 74 percent of actual goals. Those are big changes at five-on-five, specifically in terms of chance generation, where the Sabres have gone from 2.81 xGF\/60 to 3.64 with Dahlin on the ice.<\/p>\n
A lot of that is on Dahlin, one of the game\u2019s best defensemen, but there\u2019s been a shift in usage underneath the hood that\u2019s aided that: shifting shutdown responsibilities to Owen Power. Since the break, Power has faced the toughest assignments for the Sabres and not far off some of the meatiest minutes in the league. That\u2019s shifted Dahlin\u2019s focus toward a more offensive slant (similar to how Roman Josi, Victor Hedman and Quinn Hughes have been used in the past) and the results certainly speak for themselves.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not sure whether Power is up for the challenge yet (47 percent xG), but it\u2019s worth letting him grow into it if this is what the Sabres are getting out of Dahlin as a result.<\/p>\n
6. Karlsson is still at his best<\/p>\n
Two Erik Karlsson facts from an extremely impressive season:<\/p>\n
First, he\u2019s on pace for a plus-2.2 Defensive Rating, which would be a career best. Rarely has Karlsson been pushed into matchup duty, but that\u2019s been exactly the case this season on a pair with Parker Wotherspoon. He\u2019s thrived, earning 59 percent of actual goals and 52 percent of expected goals. Relative to teammates, it\u2019s the first time in his career he\u2019s been on the ice for fewer expected goals against and goals against. Doing that in a difficult context is impressive.<\/p>\n
Second, he hasn\u2019t really had to sacrifice production to do so. Over his past 10 games, that\u2019s been put in hyperdrive at five-on-five. In that time, Karlsson has scored 12 points at five-on-five, good for 4.05 points per 60, a top-15 mark in the league \u2014 and not just among defensemen. Even wilder: It\u2019s the first time Karlsson has scored over four points per 60 over any 10-game stretch over his entire career.<\/p>\n
7. Mantha\u2019s rising market value<\/p>\n
The Pittsburgh Penguins took a strong gamble on Anthony Mantha in free agency last season with a one-year, $2.5 million \u201cshow me\u201d contract. Well, he\u2019s sure shown everyone with a career year, scoring 30 goals and 58 points in 75 games. But the biggest thing he proved is that he can stay healthy.<\/p>\n
Last year, our contract model would\u2019ve pegged his value at $4.7 million on a one-year deal, expecting a plus-1.2 Net Rating. Essentially, it expected a decent middle-six winger when healthy with the caveat that availability was a big enough issue to warrant a discount. Mantha\u2019s current market value for next season: $7.5 million with a projected Net Rating of plus-6.3. Talk about a return on investment.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not to say Mantha will command that much; his injury track record is still spotty. But he\u2019s proven himself as a legitimate top six winger and the going rate for that is a lot pricier than the $2.5 million he\u2019s currently earning.<\/p>\n
8. Drysdale emerging as a legitimate top-four guy<\/p>\n
One of the major criticisms of Jamie Drysdale in his first few seasons was his weak defensive play. Whether he was thrown to the wolves in tough minutes with the Anaheim Ducks or sheltered with the Philadelphia Flyers, Drysdale struggled to limit chances and goals against relative to his context. In 70 games last year, Drysdale had a minus-4.8 Defensive Rating and, for his career, was at minus-8.2 per 82 games. That would be one of the lowest marks in the league.<\/p>\n
While some young defenders show more defensive aptitude early, there are many who need time to develop and we\u2019re starting to see the fruits of that labor with Drysdale. He did well in sheltered minutes through the first half of the season and was promoted to the top four in late January. He\u2019s taken off ever since.<\/p>\n
Among regulars, Drysdale leads the Flyers\u2019 defense with a 57 percent xG rate, allowing just 2.07 xGA\/60, an elite mark that has carried over on the scoreboard. His Defensive Rating this season: plus-1.1 in 71 games. This feels like a genuine breakthrough for the 23-year-old and that\u2019s a big deal for Philadelphia\u2019s future.<\/p>\n
9. Hischier\u2019s defensive game has returned<\/p>\n
The post-break New Jersey Devils have been a very different team. Jack Hughes has been a big part of that, looking even better than his vintage self (apologies for questioning that two weeks ago) with 27 points in 17 games. Perhaps just as important, though, is that Nico Hischier has looked closer to himself, too.<\/p>\n
Hischier is scoring at a point-per-game pace and the underlying process looks a lot stronger with a 58 percent xG rate aided by allowing just 2.31 xGA\/60. That\u2019s nearly 0.5 fewer expected goals against per 60 compared to where he was before the break.<\/p>\n
10. Cole Hutson\u2019s debut<\/p>\n
The good: Cole Hutson has five points in seven games with Washington. They may all be on the power play, but that\u2019s not a bad thing for a team whose power play has been struggling. Hutson has shown some similar puck-moving flash to his brother Lane and looks like a future game-changer.<\/p>\n
The bad: The production may be there, but there\u2019s still a lot of room to grow at five-on-five. Defensively, he\u2019s been solid enough, but the Capitals are generating just 2.03 xGF\/60 with Hutson on the ice, close to a team low since he\u2019s arrived. Given his raw talents, finding the right risk\/reward balance is the next step in unlocking his strengths.<\/p>\n
11. Carlson thriving in Anaheim<\/p>\n
I loved the John Carlson fit in Anaheim and he\u2019s showcasing exactly why. He\u2019s averaging over 25 minutes, has nine points in eight games and is dominating at five-on-five with 58 percent of expected goals. On the power play is where he\u2019s shone most with the Ducks landing in the top 10 since the trade with 9.2 goals per 60, up from a 26th-ranked 6.2 before his arrival. All of that is good for a team-leading average Game Score of 1.48.<\/p>\n
12. The Kings under DJ Smith<\/p>\n
The Kings fired Jim Hiller on March 1 and those expecting a new coach bump have been met with the same mixed bag. The Kings are 5-5-4 under DJ Smith with a slightly worse xG rate \u2014 and that\u2019s with Artemi Panarin playing every game, a luxury Hiller didn\u2019t have. The Kings still have a strong shot to make the playoffs, thanks in part to a weak schedule, but it\u2019s time to get their act together. This roster shouldn\u2019t be this bad.<\/p>\n
13. Pettersson sinking to further lows at five-on-five<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to evaluate anyone on the sinking ship in Vancouver, but it\u2019s also hard to ignore how much further Elias Pettersson\u2019s production is dwindling at five-on-five. Since the trade deadline, he has just two points in 12 games and hasn\u2019t scored a five-on-five goal since Jan. 13. From that point forward, he\u2019s earned just 1.16 points per 60.<\/p>\n
14. Josi getting crushed defensively<\/p>\n
The Nashville Predators are miraculously in the playoff hunt, but are notably getting buried in Roman Josi\u2019s minutes with just 35 percent of expected goals in March. And they\u2019ve received similar results on the scoreboard, too. The big issue is Josi has been stuck in his own end a lot, allowing 3.83 xGA\/60. That\u2019s the second-worst mark in the league ahead of only Chicago\u2019s Alex Vlasic.<\/p>\n
15. Does Broberg have more offense to show?<\/p>\n
The Blues hit a home run when they took a gamble on Philip Broberg with an offer sheet; he\u2019s turned into a legitimate No. 1 defenseman at 24 years old thanks to his defensive acumen. The big question for him is whether he has an offensive gear to go along with it.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the main thing currently separating Broberg from many of the franchise defensemen who have won Stanley Cups \u2014 they do it all. The Gustav Forsling trajectory works too if the defensive game is that good, but the lack of offense is generally an exception to the rule.<\/p>\n
The Blues have seemingly been looking into that by promoting Broberg to run the top power play after the trade deadline. The personal results so far are great: Broberg has eight points in 12 games at all strengths and has been a factor on every power-play goal scored with 7.7 points per 60. But in terms of helping the team, it\u2019s still a work in progress. During that time, the Blues rank 25th in GF\/60 and dead last in xGF\/60.<\/p>\n
16. Colorado power play since the deadline<\/p>\n
No shock here, Colorado\u2019s power play is on fire since adding Nazem Kadri. Since the deadline, the Avalanche are third in the league, scoring 11.7 goals per 60 with the man advantage. The top unit itself is up to 14.5 goals per 60. That\u2019s not quite at the same level as Edmonton\u2019s top unit this year (15.9 goals per 60), but it\u2019s in the ballpark. For the best five-on-five team in the league, that\u2019s a game-changer.<\/p>\n
Data via Hockey Stats, Hockey Stat Cards, Evolving Hockey and NHL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Montreal Canadiens\u2019 core has come under a fair bit of scrutiny over the years \u2014 not because…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":580693,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[556],"tags":[64,63,5790,575,85],"class_list":{"0":"post-580692","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-montreal-canadiens","11":"tag-nhl","12":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=580692"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/580692\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/580693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=580692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=580692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=580692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}