Jonathan D. Cohen leads gambling policy for the American Institute for Boys and Men. He is the author of \u201cLosing Big: America\u2019s Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling.\u201d <\/p>\n
Last month, Major League Baseball announced a new partnership<\/a>, naming Polymarket as its official prediction market platform. Prediction markets allow users to stake money on the outcome of real-world events, everything from election outcomes to baseball games to whether Jesus Christ will return before 2027 (current odds: about 4 percent<\/a>).<\/p>\n MLB claims the partnership is about protecting the integrity of professional baseball. But the partnership is a risky one, less of a home run than the league asserts. Prediction markets stand to gain from collaboration with America\u2019s pastime, but the deal presents dangers for sports leagues and users alike.<\/p>\n Prediction markets exist in a legal gray area. Technically, they are investment platforms, regulated at the federal level. But they function like gambling platforms. And despite the wide array of things to bet on, most<\/a> of the money spent on these sites is wagered on the outcome of sporting events. <\/p>\n Because of their status as an investment platform, prediction markets are available in all 50 states, even those that have not yet taken the plunge on legal sports betting. And they can be accessed by anyone 18 and older, while in most states you must be over 21 to bet on sports. <\/p>\n The flouting of state gambling laws did not deter MLB commissioner Rob Manfred. The rationale for the deal with Polymarket resembles the logic that brought baseball into bed with traditional sports betting companies like FanDuel and DraftKings: If legal baseball betting is going to exist, MLB executives suggest<\/a>, the league wants to be as close to the operations as possible to monitor for wrongdoing by athletes. The specific terms of the deal are unknown, but one report claims the league may make as much as $300 million<\/a> over three years from its Polymarket partnership. <\/p>\n One would think Manfred had learned his lesson. The league is still dealing with the fallout of a major gambling scandal<\/a> involving two Cleveland Guardians pitchers who allegedly tipped off gamblers about specific pitches they would throw. Both have pleaded not guilty. They were indicted<\/a> in 2025, and alleged collusion may have entailed 250 pitches<\/a> over at least 48 games, beginning in 2023. The promise of legalization was strengthening the integrity of baseball. Instead, technologically supercharged sports betting has introduced a host of new vulnerabilities to America\u2019s game. <\/p>\n Prediction markets are even less equipped to deal with inside-information abuses. On paper, Polymarket claims that it polices insider trading. But for a platform described by its CEO as a \u201ctruth machine<\/a>,\u201d the best sources of truth are those who have the kind of inside information the company says it prohibits. Like the trader who made $400,000 with an auspiciously timed bet<\/a> that Nichol\u00e1s Maduro would be out of office just hours before the American raid to capture him. Or the $855,000 in bets<\/a> that the United States would attack Iran, placed the day before it began doing so. National intelligence agencies in Washington can\u2019t prevent inside information from leaking into prediction markets. Are we supposed to believe the Washington Nationals can? <\/p>\n Even platform users assume insider information is baked in. In a recent poll<\/a>, just 27 percent of prediction market users said they were confident that prediction markets could prevent people with nonpublic information from unfairly profiting. <\/p>\n Polymarket does not do much to police inside information, but it wants the public to think it cares about doing so. Prediction markets are trying desperately to legitimize themselves. This process involves integrating prediction-market odds into all corners of American life, from CNBC and CNN<\/a> to the Golden Globes<\/a>. It also entails partnerships with sports leagues as well as athletes like Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo<\/a>. <\/p>\n Polymarket is not just signing a partnership with the MLB for the right to use official team logos. The company wants to borrow baseball\u2019s legitimacy as a trusted American institution to help prevent its sports markets from being regulated out of existence by potential congressional <\/a>or legal<\/a> action<\/a>. <\/p>\n For all the concerns about the integrity of the game, nowhere in MLB\u2019s announcement of the partnership did the league mention its intention to protect fans from gambling-related harm. MLB\u2019s traditional sports betting partners do not do enough to protect users, but at least they provide optional tools <\/a>for gamblers to limit the time and money they spend on a gambling app. <\/p>\n Not prediction markets. There are no checks in place to stop someone from gambling \u2014 er, investing \u2014 away everything they have. The MLB is now in partnership with a company whose business model involves providing 18-year-olds with a supercharged, no-limit gambling app.<\/p>\n