{"id":596346,"date":"2026-04-09T19:56:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/596346\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T19:56:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T19:56:09","slug":"getting-it-started-will-these-early-mlb-stats-last-or-fade-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/596346\/","title":{"rendered":"Getting It Started: Will These Early MLB Stats Last or Fade Away?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a Major League Baseball<\/a> season, the numbers you see in April aren\u2019t necessary what will be there come September. The Opta preseason projections were out in front of some numbers and others now reflect atop or at the bottom of advanced leaderboards. Will they last?<\/p>\n

To the moon and beyond: The quick starters to the MLB season want to resemble Artemis 2 by pushing their numbers even further.<\/p>\n

The ones off to a slow start? Well, they\u2019re trying to dig some stats out of one of those newly discovered craters on the moon.<\/p>\n

The advanced data within the Opta leaderboards<\/a> and in projections<\/a> go beyond traditional MLB stats to help answer what\u2019s sustainable this season.<\/p>\n

The advanced data update throughout the season. Just two weeks into the 2026 campaign, we\u2019re looking at five examples that stand out \u2013 for better or worse.<\/p>\n

95<\/p>\n

Atlanta\u2019s win projection.<\/p>\n

Surprise, surprise? Well, no, don\u2019t be, it\u2019s sustainable, even with the Braves coming off a 76-86 season that was their first below .500 since 2017.<\/p>\n

The Opta preseason win projection<\/a> for the Braves was 93 (rounded up from 92.7 after all those preseason simulations), and that trailed only the Los Angeles Dodgers (99), who have won the last two World Series<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now, it would help first-year manager<\/a> Walt Weiss\u2019 team to get the injured Spencers back on the mound \u2013 Spencer Strider should be back much more sooner than Spencer Schwellenbach \u2013 but opposing pitchers don\u2019t necessarily like to navigate a Braves lineup that isn\u2019t even led by Ronald Acuna Jr. right now. Drake Baldwin, the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year, ranks sixth with a 190 RV+ (100 is league average for raw value<\/a>), and is tied for the most home runs (five) and has the most RBIs (15) in MLB.<\/p>\n

\"MLB<\/p>\n

77.5<\/p>\n

Toronto\u2019s win projection.<\/p>\n

So you want underachieving to help balance out the win projections? The Blue Jays are right there in the middle between 77 and 78, and it\u2019s looking more like they could go in either direction.<\/p>\n

Yeah, seriously. Vlad Jr. and Co. were oh-so-close to beating the Dodgers in the World Series, but they were only seventh in our model\u2019s AL preseason projections with 82.7 wins.<\/p>\n

Maybe salvaging a series-ending win to cap this week\u2019s rematch with the Dodgers will spur the Blue Jays (5-7) back to more even play. They had a 4-1 start (with a 5.2 run average), then a six-game losing streak (with a 1.8 run average). While some of their offensive numbers remain average, they\u2019re second from the bottom in extra-base hits (25) and run differential per game (-1.83).<\/p>\n

\"2026<\/p>\n

14<\/p>\n

Sandy Alcantara\u2019s RV-.<\/p>\n

That number is simply off the charts, and it\u2019s been forged with the league\u2019s most innings pitched (24.1). For contrast, last year\u2019s Cy Young Award winners also were off the charts with Pittsburgh\u2019s Paul Skenes delivering a 41 RV- and Detroit\u2019s Tarik Skubal a 44 RV-. OK, we\u2019ll term Alcantara\u2019s current number as off, off the charts.<\/p>\n

Lower than 100 league average is better for RV-, but the depth of Alcantara\u2019s number is not sustainable \u2013 nor are his 0.74 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and one extra base hit allowed (actually that didn\u2019t occur until he was into his 25th inning). You might think otherwise if you\u2019ve seen the movement of his four-seamer \u2013 he\u2019s 10th in strike+<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner hinted at a return to elite form over the final month and a half of last season, and it\u2019s looking like it\u2019s here to stay. He missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery, then opened last season with a disastrous 6-11 record, 6.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .272 batting average against in his first 23 starts.<\/p>\n

It all clicked in his final eight starts: 5-1\/2.68 ERA\/0.86 WHIP\/.185 BAA while he worked at least six innings in every outing.<\/p>\n

200<\/p>\n

The RV+ of five hitters.<\/p>\n

The young hitters have taken over in MLB. Surely, you keep hearing about rookies <\/a>such as Konnor Griffin, Keven McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt, who debuted this season and seem ready to realize all the hype.<\/p>\n

But other youth is represented among the five hitters who are above 200 RV+: Cincinnati\u2019s Sal Stewart (234, first), the New York Yankees\u2019 Ben Rice (206, third) and St. Louis\u2019 Jordan Walker (201, fifth), who\u2019ve all debuted in recent years and now have grabbed the cleanup spot in their respective lineup.<\/p>\n

Add in the aforementioned Drake Baldwin (190 RV+, sixth) down in Atlanta, and MLB has a bright future. Many of these younger hitters suggest the production will last.<\/p>\n

45<\/p>\n

Cal Raleigh\u2019s RV+.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not the worst RV+ among qualifying hitters (the Big Dumper would like to thank another backstop, Yainer Diaz, for his 17 RV+).<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s a stunning start for the runner-up for 2025 AL MVP coming off the first-ever 60-home run season by a catcher<\/a>. The Seattle Mariners slugger has one round-tripper and a .143 batting average with 21 strikeouts in 49 at-bats (Opta\u2019s XK% is a slightly more-kind 0.32).<\/p>\n

A switch-hitter, Raleigh is probably bound to pick up the hitting soon \u2013 just not as last year\u2019s level. But note the lack of hitting is contagious: the Mariners (an MLB-worst 4-9) are batting .184, which over a season would be worse than all be three teams (1932 Newark Bears, .169; 1884 Wilmington Quicksteps, .175; and 1884 St. Paul Saints, .180).<\/p>\n

Enjoy MLB stats? For more coverage, follow on social media at\u00a0Instagram<\/a>,\u00a0Bluesky<\/a>,\u00a0Facebook<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0X<\/a>.<\/p>\n