{"id":597523,"date":"2026-04-10T08:38:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T08:38:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/597523\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T08:38:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T08:38:19","slug":"why-the-phrase-super-el-nino-makes-australian-climate-scientists-roll-their-eyes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/597523\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the phrase \u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Frightening headlines predicting a Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> or even a Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> amp up anxiety levels for farmers and residents of bushfire-prone regions. <\/p>\n

But these phrases are not particularly accurate. The phrase \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d makes climate scientists like me roll our eyes. <\/p>\n

Why? Let\u2019s find out.<\/p>\n

What is El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n

The El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation <\/a> is a natural and reoccurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean which can influence the chance of different weather affecting Australia. <\/p>\n

When sea surface temperatures near the Americas are warmer than usual and the trade winds<\/a> blowing from east to west across the equator weaken, climatologists call this pattern an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o events typically ramp up in winter and spring, and decay towards the end of summer and start of autumn.<\/p>\n

During El Ni\u00f1o, we tend to experience warmer than usual temperatures and reduced winter-spring rainfall in Australia\u2019s east. <\/p>\n

We pay attention to El Ni\u00f1o and its opposite, La Ni\u00f1a, because this climate pattern has the biggest influence<\/a> on year-to-year rainfall and temperature differences in eastern Australia. Drought is a key concern for farmers and rural residents, and some of the largest droughts<\/a> of the past 40 years took place during El Ni\u00f1o years. <\/p>\n

But problems can arise if we expect El Ni\u00f1o to be the only factor dictating our weather.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Average spring temperature (L) and rainfall anomalies (R) during an El Ni\u00f1o.
\n Ruby Lieber<\/a>, CC BY<\/a><\/p>\n

Why call an El Ni\u00f1o \u2018super\u2019?<\/p>\n

One El Ni\u00f1o can be stronger or weaker than others. Scientists monitor El Ni\u00f1o using the Nino3.4 index<\/a>, a measure of how much warmer (or cooler) than usual the ocean is in a region in the East Pacific. This region is the best at representing changes<\/a> in the Pacific which can indicate El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

When ocean temperatures are 0.8\u00b0C warmer than usual in that region, and the trade winds have sufficiently weakened, the Bureau of Meteorology can declare an El Ni\u00f1o has arrived. (The United States uses 0.5\u00b0C as the figure). <\/p>\n

A \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d is when the region\u2019s ocean temperatures rise 2\u00b0C, roughly two standard deviations<\/a> above normal (about a 2.5% chance of happening). While scientists first coined<\/a> the term, the evocative phrase has become a favourite of media commentators.<\/p>\n

But Australian forecasters don\u2019t use these terms, as it doesn\u2019t matter that much for our weather if the index goes over 2\u00b0C. What matters much more is whether an El Ni\u00f1o is present or not. <\/p>\n

Why? When we measure the strength of the El Ni\u00f1o, we are really only referring to ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific. But this figure is not very well correlated<\/a> with less rain in eastern Australia. It also only captures ocean changes and doesn\u2019t reflect the El Ni\u00f1o atmospheric changes<\/a> which influence the weather systems<\/a> that actually bring rain to Australia.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

During the \u2018strong\u2019 1997\u201398 El Ni\u00f1o (a), rainfall didn\u2019t change much. But during the \u2018weak\u2019 2002\u201303 El Ni\u00f1o (b), major rainfall deficits emerged.
\n Bureau of Meteorology and Climate Extremes<\/a>, CC BY<\/a><\/p>\n

That\u2019s not all. The Ni\u00f1o3.4 Index is just one of many<\/a> indications of how Australia\u2019s upcoming weather is likely to look. One index can\u2019t tell the whole story. Relying on it is like looking at the BMI<\/a> of a bodybuilder and declaring them obese.<\/p>\n

Readers may wonder how scientists can define El Ni\u00f1o using an ocean temperature threshold when oceans are getting steadily warmer under climate change. Won\u2019t we end up with constant El Ni\u00f1o? <\/p>\n

This is a good question. It\u2019s why the Bureau of Meteorology last year introduced a relative Ni\u00f1o index<\/a>, to give scientists a way to account for warming due to climate change. <\/p>\n

Should we believe winter and spring forecasts?<\/p>\n

A Southern Hemisphere autumn in the Pacific Ocean is sort of like January in your average Australian office job. As you slowly ease into the work year, you set a bunch of optimistic goals which may or may not eventuate. <\/p>\n

Over autumn, the Pacific Ocean is similarly noncommittal. It can indicate future outcomes that don\u2019t always happen.<\/p>\n

Meteorologists have a term for this. It\u2019s called the Autumn Predictability Barrier<\/a>. What it means is that El Ni\u00f1o forecasts are the least reliable<\/a> during autumn. <\/p>\n

So while forecasts of the Pacific Ocean<\/a> might be pointing towards an El Ni\u00f1o, history warns us<\/a> to take forecasts made in autumn for later in the year with a big lump of salt. <\/p>\n

At present, the European<\/a>, US<\/a> and Australian<\/a> model forecasts of Ni\u00f1o3.4 indicate a strong El Ni\u00f1o might develop. But this isn\u2019t conclusive. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Forecast from March 2026 of the Ni\u00f1o3.4 Index. Red lines indicate different model forecasts.
\n ECMWF<\/a>, CC BY<\/a><\/p>\n

The forecasts made in March 2017 are worth looking at. Here, models confidently predicted a moderate and long-lasting El Ni\u00f1o, similar to forecasts in March 2026. What happened instead was a short-lived, weak El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Forecast from March 2017 of the Ni\u00f1o3.4 Index. Red lines indicate different model forecasts and the dashed line indicates what actually happened.
\n ECMWF<\/a><\/p>\n

How should we think of El Ni\u00f1o forecasts?<\/p>\n

As a scientist who has researched seasonal forecasts of Australian rainfall, my advice is to ignore autumn headlines warning of a potentially catastrophic \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d. <\/p>\n

These get more clicks than more accurate headlines pointing out long-term forecasts at this time of year are uncertain. It\u2019s worth waiting until the end of autumn or early winter before taking El Ni\u00f1o forecasts too seriously. <\/p>\n

The current gold standard for Australian seasonal forecasts are the Bureau of Meteorology\u2019s long-range forecasts<\/a>. But even here, these forecasts become quite uncertain more than a month in the future. It\u2019s important to regularly check for updated forecasts.<\/p>\n

Will we get an El Ni\u00f1o this year? The only scientifically accurate answer as of April 9 2026 is \u201cmaybe\u201d. It\u2019s way too early to say anything other than that an El Ni\u00f1o is more likely to form this year than a La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Frightening headlines predicting a Super El Ni\u00f1o or even a Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o amp up anxiety levels for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":597524,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[64,63,75,128],"class_list":{"0":"post-597523","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-science"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=597523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/597524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=597523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=597523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=597523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}