Gulf states ‘paying the price’ for a war they didn’t start<\/a><\/p>\nWhen the Iran war ends, Gulf nations will not only have to repair the economic and physical damage caused by Iran’s retaliatory campaign, but will also have to learn to live with a regime that analysts say is “less predictable and more violent than it was two months ago”.<\/p>\n
Within hours of the ceasefire being announced, Iran said it would be closed again following a heavy Israeli bombardment of Lebanon.<\/p>\n
In the lead-up to the talks, Mr Trump said Iran was doing a “dishonourable” job of letting oil pass through the strait, adding “this is not the agreement”.<\/p>\n
Iran is demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz and seeking to charge fees to shipping companies for passage through the waterway.<\/p>\n
Iranian officials have also suggested that sea mines have been laid in the south of the strait.<\/p>\n
As talks were getting underway, the US military said two of its ships had travelled through the strait, and it had begun “setting conditions” to clear sea mines.<\/p>\n
Those claims were denied by Iranian state media, although marine data received the position of a “US Government Vessel” at the strait on Saturday afternoon.<\/p>\n
If the US is moving navy ships in, it would mark a significant development.<\/p>\n
On social media, Mr Trump said the US was “now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favour to Countries all over the World”.<\/p>\n
Hundreds of tankers are still stuck in the Gulf, although there has been some movement in the strait over the past 48 hours, with three super-tankers passing through on Saturday.<\/p>\n
In his press conference before leaving Pakistan, Vice-President JD Vance didn’t speak at all about the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
After the negotiations, Tasnim reported an Iranian source who said that if the US didn’t agree to a “reasonable deal”, “there will be no change in the situation in the Strait of Hormuz”.<\/p>\n
Frozen assets<\/p>\n
In the lead-up to negotiations, Iranian officials also said another of their red lines was the unfreezing of Iranian assets.<\/p>\n
An Iranian source had told the Reuters news agency that the US had agreed to release money held in Qatar and other foreign banks.<\/p>\n
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Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, special envoy for peace missions, stood behind JD Vance as he addressed the media.\u00a0 (Retuers: Jacquelyn Martin)<\/p>\n
That was then denied by a US official.<\/p>\n
Billions of dollars were frozen in 2018, stemming from Iranian oil sales, after Mr Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran during his first term as president.<\/p>\n
Iranian state TV and officials say Tehran, in addition to seeking the release of assets overseas, is also seeking payment of war reparations.<\/p>\n
Iran’s nuclear program<\/p>\n
This leaves us with the substantive issues that Mr Trump said led him to war with Iran in the first place.<\/p>\n
Yesterday, he said a good deal from the talks for him was “no nuclear weapon”, adding “that’s 99 per cent of it.”<\/p>\n
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Satellite image shows buildings at Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre before Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last year. (Planet Labs PBC\/Reuters)<\/p>\n
Mr Vance doubled down on that in the press conference on Sunday morning, talking about a nuclear weapon as the only example of where the US and Iran couldn’t reach an agreement.<\/p>\n
“We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” he said.<\/p>\n
“That is the core goal of the president of the United States, and that’s what we’ve tried to achieve through these negotiations.”<\/p>\n
It’s worth noting that before this war, Oman’s top diplomat, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, who was involved in the earlier negotiations between Iran and the US, said Iran had agreed to “never have a nuclear material that would create a bomb”.<\/p>\n
On social media, a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei, said discussions had been held over “various dimensions of the main negotiation topics”.<\/p>\n
“The nuclear issue, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war against Iran and in the region,” he said.<\/p>\n
“The success of this diplomatic process depends on the seriousness and good faith of the opposing side, refraining from excessive demands and unlawful requests, and the acceptance of Iran’s legitimate rights and interests.”<\/p>\n
Will a ceasefire hold?<\/p>\n
The ceasefire was agreed to for two weeks from April 8, which buys more time for some of these issues to play out.<\/p>\n
However, the ceasefire is shaky.<\/p>\n
An Iranian government spokesperson said on state TV that they were negotiating “with our finger on the trigger”.<\/p>\n
Mr Trump had said the only reason the Iranians “are alive today is to negotiate”.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister has said it’s “imperative” that the parties “continue to uphold their commitment to the ceasefire”.<\/p>\n
There are other efforts to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and it remains to be seen how Iran will respond if US warships cross the strait.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the world has been left with a stark image.<\/p>\n
At the end of his brief press conference after the negotiations, the US vice-president tapped the lectern, turned heel and walked out.<\/p>\n
The question of “are we going back to war?” shouted at him was left unanswered.<\/p>\n
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