Major League Baseball’s regular season is beginning to wind down, with just more than a month and a half remaining on the calendar. Soon, all of our attention will be on the postseason races.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But, before that becomes the case, we figured we’d take advantage of this last chance before November to check in on this winter’s free-agent class is shaping up. Below, then, you’ll find our current assessment of the potential top 10 free agents, ranked in order of descending expected average annual value.<\/p>\n
Do note that these rankings are almost guaranteed to change by the time the offseason arrives: be it because of performance, injury, or merely us guessing wrong on certain opt-out decisions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tucker has been mired in a slump that may be attributable, to some unknowable extent, to a finger injury he suffered in June. He remains the top prospective free agent in this class thanks to his well-rounded game. He doesn’t pass the Black Ink Test — he doesn’t tend to find himself near the top of many statistical leaderboards — but he’s a well-above-average hitter, baserunner, and defender who ought to clear the five-win threshold for the fourth time in five tries. Only two outfielders have signed free-agent contracts worth more than $40 million annually: Juan Soto<\/a> ($51 million) and Aaron Judge<\/a> ($40 million); Tucker has a chance to become the third.\u00a0<\/p>\n The three-year pact Bregman signed with the Red Sox over the winter could be more reasonably described as three one-year agreements standing atop each other while wearing a trenchcoat. He can re-enter the free-agent market either this or next winter if he so chooses, forgoing a $40 million salary in either ensuing season. Bregman will presumably take advantage after a season that has him on pace to set new career-high marks in both pulled fly ball rate and hard-hit percentage (up nearly seven percentage points from last year) — if only to land a longer term.<\/p>\n Bellinger has a player option for next year worth $25 million. It’s probably fair to envision him bailing following a third consecutive above-average season. Bellinger isn’t necessarily for everyone: he’s continued to trade pure exit velocity for higher in-zone contact rates, with his slugging output stemming from a pull-happy approach that may not result in as many home runs in ballparks that are less favorable to lefty hitters. Still, it helps that Bellinger is also a skilled defender capable of manning first, either outfield corner, and even some action in center.\u00a0<\/p>\n Valdez likely took notice of the eight-year, $218 million pact Max Fried<\/a> signed last winter with the New York Yankees. If you compare the two over the three-year stretch heading into their free agencies, then you’ll learn that Fried posted the better ERA+ and strikeout-to-walk ratio but that Valdez provided more innings pitched. Will that allow him to clear a $27 million AAV over a similarly long term? Stay tuned. Even if not, Valdez ought to appeal to teams seeking a reliably above-average lefty who can both strike out a batter per inning and coerce 60% ground balls.<\/p>\n Bichette won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until next March, making him the youngest player in the group. He’s rebounded from a down year, again showcasing his strong contact chops and 20-plus-homer strength. The defensive side of Bichette’s game is more open to interpretation, as he’s consistently graded as a below-average performer. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if a few teams are interested in him as a second baseman. That doesn’t mean he’ll end up at the keystone, at least in the short term, but it could help inform how his winter plays out.<\/p>\n Who’s ready for another round of Alonso discourse? He may well establish a new career high in OPS+ this season, making it unlikely that he exercises his $24 million player option. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s conquered the ghouls and goblins who haunted his free agency last offseason, nor does it mean he’s going to find the kind of lucrative long-term contract that he would’ve been a few decades ago. Rather, Alonso’s general profile (a 30-something right-right first baseman) and brow-raising underlying statistics (despite a reduced strikeout rate, his in-zone contact rate has declined by nearly six percentage points) could again limit his outlook to a shorter-term arrangement worth between $27 and 30 million annually.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cease came into the season with a real opportunity to solidify himself as the headliner of this winter’s free-agent starter class. He’s failed in that effort to date, but he ought to receive a nice payday all the same thanks to an electric arsenal and strong underlying measures. Keep in mind, Walker Buehler<\/a> received a $21 million contract last winter despite having a worse season (and worse bill of health), suggesting that Cease should beat that, likely by a significant amount.\u00a0<\/p>\n Another southpaw undoubtedly heartened by Max Fried’s payday. Su\u00e1rez isn’t quite on Valdez’s level, be it in terms of quantity or quality, but he’s an above-average starter doing his finest work following some tweaks to his pitch mix. He’s upped his changeup and cutter usage at the expense of his curveball and four-seamer, leading him to generate weaker contact (albeit while also coercing fewer ground balls).<\/p>\n Su\u00e1rez, well on his way to a second career 40-homer season, was the top offensive player moved at the deadline. He’s likely to have his game nitpicked more this winter than he did over the summer, with teams keying in on his age (he’s 34), swing-and-miss tendencies, and defensive inadequacies. Alex Bregman and Kris Bryant<\/a> are the only third basemen to sign for more than $20 million annually in the last five years. Su\u00e1rez could join that list on a short-term arrangement.\u00a0<\/p>\n 10. Kyle Schwarber<\/a>, OF\/DH, Philadelphia Phillies<\/p>\n Schwarber is going to be a fascinating case study. Teams generally do not spring for this profile, that being a 30-something bat-only player with serious swing-and-miss tendencies, but he’ll enter the market on the heels of a banner season. Furthermore, Schwarber has a demonstrated track record of elite strength, elite barrel control, and elite strike-zone judgement. Outside of Shohei Ohtani<\/a>, who is an exception for obvious reasons, no designated hitter has ever topped $20 million annually. Schwarber seems certain to break that glass ceiling this offseason.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Major League Baseball’s regular season is beginning to wind down, with just more than a month and a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60233,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[5154,64,63,21598,5156,5158,7310,6108,6105,46672,29673,9848,5163,5152,16051,591,48938,48937,48936,1830,2704,1831,2365,22730,1189,5162,85,5161],"class_list":["post-60232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-alex-bregman","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-bo-bichette","tag-boston-red-sox","tag-chicago-cubs","tag-cody-bellinger","tag-dylan-cease","tag-eugenio-suarez","tag-fa","tag-framber-valdez","tag-free-agency","tag-houston-astros","tag-kyle-schwarber","tag-kyle-tucker","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-fa","tag-mlb-free-agency","tag-mlb-free-agent","tag-new-york-mets","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-pete-alonso","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-ranger-suarez","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-seattle-mariners","tag-sports","tag-toronto-blue-jays"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60232\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}