Gas producers on ‘best behaviour’ despite energy chaos<\/a><\/p>\n War in the Middle East roiled energy markets but Australian gas prices are strikingly subdued. Experts say intervention by Canberra may explain why.<\/p>\n It stated climate targets announced by about 130 countries since late 2024 have altered projections for future fossil fuel demand.<\/p>\n It also said as demand from gas-importing countries “plateaus or declines” in the future, global LNG markets will experience structural oversupply after a huge wave of new export capacity \u2014 led by the US and Qatar \u2014 comes online by 2030.<\/p>\n It warned that most of Australia’s existing long-term LNG export contracts will expire between the mid-2030s and 2040, and when the contracts roll off, Australia’s major gas projects will be exposed to a very different world.<\/p>\n For that reason, the report said, Australia’s existing LNG export contracts may represent the “upper bound” of what our gas exporters can sustainably sell internationally.<\/p>\n “This has broader implications for Australia’s economy,” the report said.<\/p>\n “If export revenues from LNG decline, alongside similar structural pressures on other fossil fuel exports such as coal, Australia’s trade profile could shift materially by the mid-2030s.”<\/p>\n The war-driven energy crisis will hasten the shift<\/p>\n Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG, accounting for roughly a fifth of global LNG trade. LNG is Australia’s third-largest export behind iron ore and coal.\u00a0<\/p>\n Government to wave big stick at gas exporters<\/a><\/p>\n It is the first time the government has taken a step towards using the powers it has to limit exports, and it comes at a time when the profits from those exports appear set to surge.<\/p>\n The report, released on Tuesday, said since Australia exports more than 80 per cent of the gas it produces, Australia’s energy revenue was uniquely exposed to the policy decisions of its trading partners.<\/p>\n It said the war in the Middle East had driven short-term price spikes for LNG and crude oil, but it could also hasten the structural shift that is already underway in Asia’s energy markets.<\/p>\n “We’re seeing leaders across Asia announcing major renewable energy programs in response to the energy security shock,” the report’s lead author Anita Talberg said.<\/p>\n “Our analysis shows that this was already the direction of travel; the crisis might just compress the timeline.<\/p>\n “Australia’s energy future isn’t determined in Canberra, but in Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul and Jakarta, and those governments are moving towards renewable energy.”<\/p>\n In recent weeks, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has directed the construction of 100 gigawatts of solar “as quickly as possible<\/a>“, citing the need for stronger energy resilience and independence.\u00a0<\/p>\n He said his country needs to better exploit its huge geothermal resources<\/a>.<\/p>\n South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said his country must “swiftly transition to renewable energy” and relying on fossil fuel energy was “extremely dangerous for the future<\/a>“.<\/p>\n Anita Talberg says Australia’s energy future is determined in Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul and Jakarta. (ABC News: Barrie Pullen)<\/p>\n Australia’s gas dilemma in a transforming global market<\/p>\n The Climate Resources report analysed the long-term outlook for global LNG markets under three different global warming scenarios consistent with warming of 1.6 degrees Celsius, 1.8C and 2C.<\/p>\n It applied a “demand-led” framework to focus on total gas demand in the future.<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/342ec0f9ecbe92117ce556813abac10e.jpeg\")
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