Formula 1 drivers and teams now have a lot more information to base contract decisions on than even a few months ago.<\/p>\n
The competitive order under the new regulations is much less of a ‘black box’ now, with many of the burning pre-2026 questions answered – questions like whether Mercedes would again nail an engine regulations change (yes), whether Red Bull-Ford will struggle as a nascent power unit manufacturer (no) and whether Aston Martin-Honda would finally emerge as a true contender (oof).<\/p>\n
But how will this influence the driver market? The Race F1 Podcast’s panel of Edd Straw, Jon Noble and Scott Mitchell-Malm gathered in a special episode to outline and debate the scenarios doing the rounds in the paddock – and try their hand at mocking up a 2027 grid.<\/p>\n
Red Bull<\/p>\n
Red Bull is expected to be the biggest newsmaker when it comes to the possibility of changes at the front of the field.<\/p>\n
Its talisman driver, four-time F1 champion Max Verstappen, is known to be seriously contemplating a break from F1<\/a>, disillusioned with the current technical regulations.<\/p>\n Verstappen has a clause in his Red Bull contract that would enable him to go free at the end of the season, though a scenario in which he renegotiates with Red Bull to remain a representative of the brand while taking time away from racing feels a lot more logical.<\/p>\n “He’s the lynchpin,” says Jon of Verstappen’s role in the driver market. “I was speaking to someone in the paddock in Shanghai, they reckoned that the explosion point would be what Max Verstappen does. That everything would be calm until Max makes a decision.<\/p>\n “I think I will commit to Max not being in F1 next year.”<\/p>\n There is “a real chance” of that, Scott concurs, though Edd “would err” on the side of Verstappen remaining on the grid in 2027.<\/p>\n Given his relatively assured start to the season, Isack Hadjar is strong favourite to keep his seat regardless of what happens with Verstappen – so the biggest intrigue is, if Verstappen does step aside, how Red Bull would navigate the situation?<\/p>\n This would depend on whether it believes Verstappen would come back. If not, it would surely try for a big-name replacement – but if Red Bull can count on Verstappen for 2028 and beyond, an in-house option like Arvid Lindblad to hold the fort in the meantime feels like the path of least resistance.<\/p>\n Projected line-up: Isack Hadjar – Arvid Lindblad<\/p>\n Mercedes<\/p>\n Like the year before, Toto Wolff’s long-standing interest in Verstappen is the only real x-factor that could sway Mercedes from the path of straightforward continuity.<\/p>\n But Verstappen’s genuine brand loyalty to Red Bull, and the nature of his current grievances having more to do with F1 regs than Red Bull’s disappointing 2027 chassis, are two big marks against such a scenario.<\/p>\n “I still think that if Verstappen steps away, it’s with a kind of Red Bull return in mind,” Scott reckons. And Jon concurs, admitting he “can’t see a scenario where Max ends up at Mercedes next year”.<\/p>\n A 2027 with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli in the cars thus seems almost certain – though complications could still arise depending on how peacefully a 2026 title fight they currently look like monopolising plays out.<\/p>\n Projected line-up: George Russell – Kimi Antonelli<\/p>\n Ferrari<\/p>\n Predicting a Lewis Hamilton-for-Ollie Bearman swap at Ferrari in 2027 was the simplest thing at the end of last year, given the misery of Hamilton’s late-season, but the seven-time champion looks “reset” and more competitive in these early days of the new regulations.<\/p>\n And while Scott is among those “not convinced” that Charles Leclerc will be a Ferrari ‘lifer’, he sees no alternative destinations that would be a clear upgrade or even a sideways move as early as 2027.<\/p>\n Projected line-up: Charles Leclerc – Lewis Hamilton<\/p>\n McLaren<\/p>\n The intra-McLaren title fight of 2025 wasn’t always the smoothest (though also never anywhere near as messy as it could’ve been), and rumours do surface monthly that Oscar Piastri and his camp aren’t necessarily the happiest with their standing – though Piastri himself has never done anything to give this public credence.<\/p>\n If Red Bull has to plan long-term for a post-Verstappen project, then Piastri “can be a great Red Bull target” says Scott, recalling that he had already been on the organisation’s radar in the past, albeit under different leadership.<\/p>\n But in any case, 2027 might just be too early. Jon is among those who “can’t see any change happening at McLaren” next year.<\/p>\n Projected line-up: Lando Norris – Oscar Piastri<\/p>\n Aston Martin<\/p>\n Aston Martin could’ve found itself at the centre of a real silly season frenzy if it had had a start to 2026 befitting of a Honda works partner taking an Adrian Newey-designed chassis into battle.<\/p>\n