{"id":606670,"date":"2026-04-14T17:22:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T17:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/606670\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T17:22:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T17:22:21","slug":"mlb-betting-tips-for-tuesday-lean-on-martes-power-expect-mets-to-struggle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/606670\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB betting tips for Tuesday: Lean on Marte’s power, expect Mets to struggle"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Derek CartyApr 14, 2026, 11:20 AM ET<\/p>\n

Close<\/a>Derek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.<\/p>\n

Multiple Authors<\/p>\n

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice<\/a> | WS odds<\/a> | Fantasy Buzz<\/a><\/p>\n

Today’s top batter prop bets<\/p>\n

Ketel Marte<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.64 EV<\/p>\n

Gunnar Henderson<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+462)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.27 EV<\/p>\n

Wyatt Langford<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+578)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.74 EV<\/p>\n

Paul Goldschmidt<\/a> | UNDER 0.5 H (+190)
Projection: 41% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.03 EV<\/p>\n

Graham Pauley<\/a> | OVER 0.5 RBI (+309)
Projection: 29% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.32 EV<\/p>\n

Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n

Michael McGreevy<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-106)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.97 EV<\/p>\n

Jeffrey Springs<\/a> | OVER 4.5 K (-149)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.52 EV<\/p>\n

Joey Cantillo<\/a> | UNDER 2.5 ER (-140)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.69 EV<\/p>\n

Nolan McLean<\/a> | UNDER 5.5 K (-107)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.02 EV<\/p>\n

Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/a> | UNDER 1.5 ER (+111)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.87 EV<\/p>\n

THE BAT X: Team Projections<\/p>\n

PITCHER<\/p>\n

MONEY
LINE<\/p>\n

PROJ.
WIN%<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

RUN
LINE<\/p>\n

OV<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

GAME
TOTAL<\/p>\n

O\/U<\/p>\n

xRUNS<\/p>\n

VALUE %<\/p>\n

Merrill Kelly<\/p>\n

+139<\/p>\n

41.4<\/p>\n

-2.08<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-109<\/p>\n

-4.63<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -107<\/p>\n

9.19<\/p>\n

-13.37<\/p>\n

Trevor Rogers<\/p>\n

-168<\/p>\n

58.6<\/p>\n

-5.83<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-119<\/p>\n

-7.50<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

4.52<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cole Ragans<\/p>\n

-102<\/p>\n

47.3<\/p>\n

-5.59<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+122<\/p>\n

-10.91<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -103<\/p>\n

7.78<\/p>\n

-15.55<\/p>\n

Framber Valdez<\/p>\n

-118<\/p>\n

52.7<\/p>\n

-3.32<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-159<\/p>\n

-2.48<\/p>\n

U -117<\/p>\n

6.00<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Riley Martin<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

49.2<\/p>\n

6.89<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-125<\/p>\n

3.48<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -112<\/p>\n

10.63<\/p>\n

-1.59<\/p>\n

Aaron Nola<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

50.9<\/p>\n

-13.01<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-104<\/p>\n

-16.62<\/p>\n

U -108<\/p>\n

-7.54<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Robbie Ray<\/p>\n

-105<\/p>\n

48.5<\/p>\n

-5.70<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+117<\/p>\n

-8.66<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -110<\/p>\n

10.08<\/p>\n

0.59<\/p>\n

Brady Singer<\/p>\n

-115<\/p>\n

51.5<\/p>\n

-3.34<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-152<\/p>\n

-3.99<\/p>\n

U -110<\/p>\n

-9.68<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miles Mikolas<\/p>\n

+153<\/p>\n

43.2<\/p>\n

7.73<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+105<\/p>\n

3.57<\/p>\n

9.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

10.43<\/p>\n

-3.61<\/p>\n

Mitch Keller<\/p>\n

-186<\/p>\n

56.8<\/p>\n

-11.71<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-137<\/p>\n

-14.40<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-5.45<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reid Detmers<\/p>\n

+153<\/p>\n

44.9<\/p>\n

12.86<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+105<\/p>\n

10.17<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O +100<\/p>\n

9.47<\/p>\n

-5.50<\/p>\n

Ryan Weathers<\/p>\n

-186<\/p>\n

55.1<\/p>\n

-14.83<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-137<\/p>\n

-19.97<\/p>\n

U -120<\/p>\n

-3.29<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Max Meyer<\/p>\n

+135<\/p>\n

45.5<\/p>\n

6.20<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

3.24<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

9.58<\/p>\n

3.23<\/p>\n

Reynaldo Lopez<\/p>\n

-163<\/p>\n

54.5<\/p>\n

-11.56<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-117<\/p>\n

-15.26<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-12.17<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Shane McClanahan<\/p>\n

-143<\/p>\n

54.0<\/p>\n

-7.44<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-111<\/p>\n

-9.42<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

8.61<\/p>\n

-0.22<\/p>\n

Noah Schultz<\/p>\n

+119<\/p>\n

46.1<\/p>\n

-0.29<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-116<\/p>\n

-2.52<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-8.92<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sonny Gray<\/p>\n

-136<\/p>\n

59.2<\/p>\n

4.20<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-108<\/p>\n

2.98<\/p>\n

8.0<\/p>\n

O -115<\/p>\n

8.35<\/p>\n

-11.14<\/p>\n

Mick Abel<\/p>\n

+113<\/p>\n

40.8<\/p>\n

-14.91<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

-14.70<\/p>\n

U -105<\/p>\n

2.44<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kevin Gausman<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

49.4<\/p>\n

2.10<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-153<\/p>\n

1.73<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

7.54<\/p>\n

-4.36<\/p>\n

Jacob Misiorowski<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

50.6<\/p>\n

-10.41<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+117<\/p>\n

-16.50<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-4.49<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Joey Cantillo<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

50.1<\/p>\n

-7.34<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+106<\/p>\n

-10.58<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.39<\/p>\n

-15.80<\/p>\n

Michael McGreevy<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

49.9<\/p>\n

-1.08<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-137<\/p>\n

-2.10<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

6.53<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Michael Lorenzen<\/p>\n

+159<\/p>\n

35.9<\/p>\n

-9.27<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

+108<\/p>\n

-11.95<\/p>\n

8.5<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

9.45<\/p>\n

-2.77<\/p>\n

Colton Gordon<\/p>\n

-194<\/p>\n

64.2<\/p>\n

-1.54<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

-140<\/p>\n

-1.14<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-6.19<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

MacKenzie Gore<\/p>\n

-120<\/p>\n

57.1<\/p>\n

5.93<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

4.37<\/p>\n

9.0<\/p>\n

O -101<\/p>\n

8.61<\/p>\n

-21.59<\/p>\n

Jeffrey Springs<\/p>\n

+100<\/p>\n

42.9<\/p>\n

-15.56<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-135<\/p>\n

-14.98<\/p>\n

U -120<\/p>\n

11.10<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bryan Woo<\/p>\n

-122<\/p>\n

53.8<\/p>\n

-0.88<\/p>\n

-1.0<\/p>\n

+103<\/p>\n

-4.16<\/p>\n

7.0<\/p>\n

O -118<\/p>\n

7.87<\/p>\n

1.07<\/p>\n

Michael King<\/p>\n

+102<\/p>\n

46.2<\/p>\n

-8.03<\/p>\n

+1.0<\/p>\n

-134<\/p>\n

-7.81<\/p>\n

U -102<\/p>\n

-10.31<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nolan McLean<\/p>\n

+169<\/p>\n

33.9<\/p>\n

-10.77<\/p>\n

+1.5<\/p>\n

-126<\/p>\n

-9.26<\/p>\n

7.5<\/p>\n

O -108<\/p>\n

8.38<\/p>\n

0.71<\/p>\n

Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/p>\n

-207<\/p>\n

66.1<\/p>\n

-0.88<\/p>\n

-1.5<\/p>\n

+104<\/p>\n

0.80<\/p>\n

U -112<\/p>\n

-9.69<\/p>\n

Top Betting Trends<\/p>\n

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.<\/p>\n

New York Mets<\/a> 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have gone under for this bet in 14 of their last 20 contests. (+7.95 Units \/ 32% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -154<\/p>\n

San Diego Padres<\/a> Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in five straight games. (+6.30 Units \/ 126% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -136<\/p>\n

Minnesota Twins<\/a> Moneyline:
The Twins have won this bet in five consecutive home games. (+6.30 Units \/ 120% ROI). Current odds: +113<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Angels<\/a> Game Total OVER:
The Angels have won this bet in eight straight games. (+8.00 Units \/ 88% ROI). Current odds: 9 @ -105<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Derek CartyApr 14, 2026, 11:20 AM ET CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":606671,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,85],"class_list":["post-606670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/606670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=606670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/606670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/606671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=606670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=606670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=606670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}