{"id":611537,"date":"2026-04-16T21:24:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T21:24:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/611537\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T21:24:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T21:24:14","slug":"2026-nba-playoff-x-factors-the-players-who-can-swing-a-series-on-every-team","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/611537\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NBA playoff X-factors: The players who can swing a series on every team"},"content":{"rendered":"

The NBA Playoffs<\/a> are here! For every team, there is one player who can swing the series, for better or worse. Let\u2019s look at one X-factor for every team:<\/p>\n

West: OKC<\/a> \u2022 SAS<\/a> \u2022 DEN<\/a> \u2022 LAL<\/a> \u2022 HOU<\/a> \u2022 MIN<\/a> \u2022 POR<\/a> \u2022 PHX\/GSW<\/a>
East: DET<\/a> \u2022 BOS<\/a> \u2022 NYK<\/a> \u2022 CLE<\/a> \u2022 TOR<\/a> \u2022 ATL<\/a> \u2022 PHI<\/a> \u2022 ORL\/CHA<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Dillon<\/p>\n

(Dillon Marshall\/Yahoo Sports Illustration)<\/p>\n

WESTERN CONFERENCE<\/p>\n

Jalen Williams is back, but something is off. Last year Williams took a career-high 29% of his shots from 3, averaging nearly five attempts per game and making 37% of them. That evolution \u2014 from midrange specialist to genuine perimeter threat \u2014 was one of the reasons Oklahoma City<\/a> won the championship. Defenses couldn’t sag off him anymore. But this season he made only 29.9% of his 3s with under 17.3% of his shots coming from behind the line. He has retreated inside the arc. Even his midrange jumper isn\u2019t falling as often at 41% down from 46% last year and 49% the year prior. He is not the same player who helped close out the Finals.<\/p>\n

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Some of this is almost certainly the injuries. Williams dealt with a procedure in the offseason on his shooting wrist and then two hamstring strains that cost him most of the second half of the season. That kind of lower-body damage affects a shooter’s base, his lift, the trust he puts into his legs when he rises up.<\/p>\n

But at some point, OKC will need the version we saw last year. And if they don\u2019t get it, then Ajay Mitchell<\/a>, Jared McCain<\/a>, or Isaiah Joe<\/a> better be ready to step up in the backcourt.<\/p>\n

The Spurs have a lot of X-factors on their team. Luke Kornet<\/a> could come in and play in two-big lineups next to Wemby<\/a>. Stephon Castle<\/a> can seemingly drop a 40-point triple double any night. Carter Bryant<\/a> is a secret Swiss Army Knife that comes off the bench. Julian Champagnie<\/a> is inevitably gonna have the Julian Champagnie game. And then there’s Dylan Harper, who just turned 20 and at 6-foot-5 clearly has superstar potential when you watch him power his way into the paint for layups inside. He\u2019s so crafty in the paint, and so strong as a ball-handler, there\u2019s really nothing you can do.<\/p>\n

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The reason I\u2019ve argued since pre-draft that I preferred Kon Knueppel<\/a> for the Spurs is because of his elite shooting compared to Harper\u2019s shaky shooting. Well, as of late Harper is elite at shooting. Over his last 32 games, he shot 45.6% from 3, and granted it was on a low volume, it\u2019s an incredibly impressive development for him. His shot looks fluid, and he\u2019s even shooting a better percentage from the line and from midrange too.<\/p>\n

So all indicators are looking positive for Harper, which is what makes him the X-factor: Wemby was a 29 minute per game guy during the season. He didn’t play over 40 minutes once. Who’s going to help fill the gaps when Wemby is on the bench? A lot of the time, it\u2019s going to have to be Harper. And he looks capable.<\/p>\n

After Cam Johnson went 0-for-6 against the Wolves in early March<\/a>, he said this: \u201cJust feeling a little stuck. \u2026 Every time that I felt down \u2026 every time that’s happened, I’ve been able to turn it around in some way, somehow.\u201d<\/p>\n

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At the time, the Nikola Joki\u0107\/Cam Johnson dribble handoff combo was producing just 0.84 points per handoff, worst on the team. Joki\u0107 runs one of the best dribble-handoff operations in basketball history. But Johnson couldn\u2019t get going.<\/p>\n

Since then? 1.16 points per handoff for the duo. Second to only Jamal Murray<\/a>. It\u2019s working. Johnson has fixed himself just as he predicted he would. And if this continues, he could swing a game and a series. If he starts struggling again? Welp, this Nuggets run may not last long.<\/p>\n

The true X-factor in Los Angeles<\/a> is the health of their best player: Luka Don\u010di\u0107<\/a>. Without him, the Lakers could get bounced by the Rockets with ease. With him, they have the upside to beat anyone. A Grade 2 hamstring typically requires three-to-six weeks of recovery, but Luka flew to Europe for specialized treatment to try to make it back for the playoffs. That treatment working is really all that matters for LA’s deep playoff hopes.<\/p>\n

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But if Don\u010di\u0107 is unable to return during the first round, the key to the Lakers getting through the Rockets could be their defense with Ayton at the center of it. JJ Redick<\/a> has leaned heavily on zone defense as of late, and it has worked. The Lakers have run the fourth-most zone defense in the league and allowed opponents to post only a 104.5 offensive rating, the best of the 21 teams to log at least 100 zone plays.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Rockets have posted the ninth-worst offensive rating against zone defense this season. If Ayton can anchor this Los Angeles defense, while also using his size to score scrappy points in the paint on offense, the Lakers might be able to sneak past Houston<\/a>, giving Don\u010di\u0107 and Austin Reaves<\/a> enough time to recover before the second round.<\/p>\n

Ever since Sheppard got inserted into Houston\u2019s starting lineup he\u2019s averaging 15.5 points on 41% from 3 on 8.5 attempts. He\u2019s the highest-volume 3-point shooter on the team. And he\u2019s averaging double the assists to turnovers with 4.3 assists to only two turnovers. The Rockets need his shooting to space the floor, especially against a Lakers team that will be playing a lot of zone.<\/p>\n

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To go deep into the playoffs, the Rockets will need Sheppard to catch fire and win a game or two though. He’s hit 30 twice this year. Can he hit 35? Can he hit 40? Houston’s offense might need it.<\/p>\n

Anderson is 32 years old. He\u2019s even slower now than he was when he entered the NBA with the nickname of Slow Mo. He averages 4.6 points. On paper, he doesn\u2019t seem all that important as a castaway acquired by the Timberwolves before the trade deadline. Until you look at what happens when he plays center.<\/p>\n

Minnesota has a 110.2 defensive rating with Rudy Gobert<\/a> on the floor. Without Gobert, that number balloons to 119.8. That has been an issue for years since the bench frontcourt of Naz Reid<\/a> and Julius Randle<\/a> struggles. But in the minutes without Gobert and with Anderson at center, the Wolves have posted a 107.1 defensive rating. It\u2019s a sample of a hair under 200 minutes, but the results have been consistent enough to notice.<\/p>\n

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Especially when the Wolves were able to mount a historic comeback against Houston. Gobert fouled out with nine seconds left so Anderson had to play all of overtime, and Minnesota was able to be aggressive with traps and switches, helping off Amen Thompson<\/a> and sending two at Kevin Durant<\/a>. The Wolves have blitzed more, and they\u2019re sending way more switches with Anderson.<\/p>\n

Kyle Anderson at C<\/p>\n

Rudy Gobert at C<\/p>\n

Switch %<\/p>\n

36%<\/p>\n

15%<\/p>\n

Points Per P&R Allowed<\/p>\n

0.89<\/p>\n

0.87<\/p>\n

Defensive Rating<\/p>\n

107.1<\/p>\n

110.2<\/p>\n

The Wolves switch 36% of screens when Anderson is on the floor. Up from 15% when Gobert is out there without Anderson. With Anderson at the 5, Minnesota has a connected, switchable frontcourt that keeps the defense intact.<\/p>\n

Anderson is Minnesota\u2019s X-factor because there\u2019s no guarantee this translates to the playoffs. He is a 15-minute per game older guy after all. But the fact Minnesota has a functional answer when Gobert sits increases their odds of making a run.<\/p>\n

Avdija is the best player on the Blazers. But he\u2019s also their X-factor. The Spurs are better than anyone at preventing opponents from getting into the paint. Well, that is precisely what Avidja excels at. In Portland<\/a>\u2019s three games against San Antonio<\/a> this year, Victor Wembanyama played in none of them. But a worrisome stat for the Blazers is how Avdija has performed against similarly dominant interior defenders.<\/p>\n

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Avdija posted a 52.1% effective field goal percentage in all games this season. But when Rudy Gobert or Chet Holmgren<\/a> were on defense, that number was just 35%. On drives to the basket, the Blazers scored 1.06 points per drive by Avdija on the year. But with Rudy or Chet out there, that number fell to 0.94.<\/p>\n

The presence of Wemby will turn Deni into more of a playmaker. If he can find openings to score inside, while also spraying the ball around to shooters, maybe Portland can make this a series. But the Blazers were 28th in 3-point percentage on the year. Odds are, the series will simply be a lesson in how far they must go.<\/p>\n

There is a version of Jalen Green that is a genuine co-star next to Devin Booker<\/a> \u2014 the guy we saw score 36 vs. Indiana<\/a> and 34 vs. Toronto<\/a> on back-to-back nights \u2014 and there is a version of him that is an expensive, inefficient volume shot-chucker \u2014 like the guy who went 3-for-17 vs. Minnesota. So, the star or the bust \u2026 which one shows up?<\/p>\n

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Warriors X-factor: Kristaps Porzi\u0146\u0123is<\/p>\n

Steph Curry<\/a> is back, but Steph alone can\u2019t pull off a miracle in a first-round matchup against OKC. He\u2019ll need some help. Which makes Golden State\u2019s X-factor: Porzi\u0146\u0123is. At 7-2, Porzi\u0146\u0123is offers something no other Warriors big man does: the combination of a credible post threat and floor-stretching range that forces defenses into impossible decisions alongside Curry. They\u2019ve barely played together though. And there\u2019s no guarantee that KP can even stay on the floor.<\/p>\n

Porzi\u0146\u0123is missed time with illness and the conditioning issues because of what he says is POTS, a chronic condition that affects blood flow and heart rate. He thinks the issues have been resolved though and has played in every game to close the season without any apparent problems.<\/p>\n

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If he can stay on the floor, maybe the Warriors can win a game in a series. But more importantly for the long term, he needs to fit. And thus far he has not expressed much enthusiasm over staying in Golden State for the long term.<\/p>\n

EASTERN CONFERENCE<\/p>\n

When Cade Cunningham<\/a> suffered a collapsed lung, I wondered if they\u2019d blow the 1-seed. But Cade\u2019s time off might\u2019ve been a blessing in disguise. It forced Jalen Duren<\/a> into a heavier offensive load, so we got to see him reach a new level. And Jenkins got moved into the starting lineup, and he was awesome.<\/p>\n

Jenkins averaged 19 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists as a starter before Cade\u2019s return. Two of his best games came against playoff teams: 30 and 8 against the Lakers, 26 and 8 against the Wolves. Detroit doesn\u2019t need Jenkins to be Cade, but the fact he can get so hot and provide a spark on a larger volume shows he can help win a game and a series if the moment demands it.<\/p>\n

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The Celtics lost Porzi\u0146\u0123is, Al Horford<\/a>, Luke Kornet, Jrue Holiday<\/a>, and Jayson Tatum<\/a>. They were supposed to be cooked. Instead, they\u2019re contenders because they\u2019ve answered every big question, such as: What happens at the center spot? The answer: Queta.<\/p>\n

What Queta does on offense is what the Celtics need a center to do: screen, roll, catch in traffic, and finish. And Queta does every single one of those things at a high level, scoring 1.2 points out of ball screens. Off-ball, Queta\u2019s screening is integral to springing open shooters. Queta has also anchored Boston\u2019s defense with chasedown blocks on the break, active help defense, and quick feet on the perimeter.<\/p>\n

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The Celtics are posting an elite 108.8 defensive rating with Queta on the floor. But not without him at 117.5. After averaging 25 minutes per game, will he need to play 30? Boston will need to slow down a ton of bigs in the playoffs and more sophisticated gameplans to make a deep run. The Celtics will always score no matter who\u2019s on the floor, but there\u2019s no one on the bench who can defend the way he can. If Queta keeps excelling, Boston is a championship team.<\/p>\n

The question that has followed Towns his entire career is whether his game translates to the playoffs. Especially on defense. One game that is gonna stick in my mind came in a Knicks win over the Grizzlies in early April. New York led by 17 points at halftime, then Memphis<\/a> started hunting KAT every single possession. After Memphis scored points off a lob dunk, an isolation, a spot-up triple, and then a one-on-one 3 in his face, Towns got pulled.<\/p>\n

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If KAT\u2019s getting exposed by a tanking Grizzlies<\/a> team \u2026 what\u2019s gonna happen in the playoffs? That\u2019s what makes him the X-factor. If he\u2019s locked in, playing strong defense, the Knicks have a chance. If not, they won\u2019t last long.<\/p>\n

Donovan Mitchell<\/a> and James Harden<\/a> will provide the majority of scoring for Cleveland. But we all know how streaky Harden is. There will come a day that the Cavs will need scoring from elsewhere. One night, it might be a big shooting night from Max Strus<\/a> or Dean Wade<\/a>. Another night, it\u2019ll have to be Mobley.<\/p>\n

This season, Mobley shot 30% on catch-and-shoot 3s, 28% on dribble-jumper 3s, and 37% on pull-up 2-pointers. He ranked in the 25th percentile in spot-up situations, the 40th percentile out of pick-and-rolls, and the 64th percentile on post-ups. The Cavaliers will probably have no issues disposing of the Raptors in the first round, but in Round 2 against the Pistons and beyond, Mobley has to be better.<\/p>\n

Quickley is all beat up. He missed time with plantar fasciitis. He didn\u2019t look quite like himself after his return in April. Now he has a right hamstring strain. But the Raptors need him to keep up with the Cavaliers. In 70 games this year, he averaged 16.4 points per game and shot 37.4% from 3 while displaying dynamic scoring talent with and without the ball in his hands.<\/p>\n

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If Quickley isn\u2019t able to produce, this will be a quick series. And if he doesn’t, it’ll raise more questions about his ability at only 6-2 and 190 pounds to both stay durable and produce in April. He’s played in the playoffs twice \u2014 both times with the Knicks \u2014 and in each opportunity his scoring efficiency numbers fell off a cliff. Time to prove he can produce on the biggest stage.<\/p>\n

Alexander-Walker is Atlanta\u2019s X-factor because to make a deep run the Hawks will need a superstar perimeter presence. And as of late, he\u2019s looking like one. He averaged nearly 25 points on 50\/40\/90 from the field over his last six weeks \u2014 up from 19.8 points per game previously. He\u2019s excelling at all his usual things as an elite shooter off the catch who can attack closeouts and get into the paint. But his on-ball usage is up now too.<\/p>\n

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Atlanta started feeding Alexander-Walker more pick-and-rolls and running him through more dribble-handoff actions with the intent to get the ball in his hands. And it\u2019s working. Better than it ever has. He\u2019s getting into the paint on self-created drives to the rim, and scoring with his off-hand. He looks effortless getting into his pull-up. Everything looks easy. And if this continues, who knows how far the Hawks could go.<\/p>\n

Joel Embiid<\/a> will miss the start of if not the entire first-round series against the Celtics because of surgery on his appendix. So odds are Philadelphia<\/a>\u2019s season is over. But if the Sixers hang on, and if Embiid comes back, it\u2019s gonna be because they replenished his scoring elsewhere. Tyrese Maxey<\/a>, Paul George<\/a>, and VJ Edgecombe<\/a> will handle most of that. But there needs to be another guy. There will need to be a Quentin Grimes Game. He goes through stretches where he scores 28, 31, 25, and 27 points, taking 20 shots a game, looking like an aggressive on ball-scoring star. Then he\u2019ll have games where he scores zero on only four shots, and five points on seven shots. It\u2019s puzzling. If the Sixers get a good version of Grimes, maybe he can be the X-factor that swings a game or two their way.<\/p>\n

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What a waste of a season in Orlando. They gave up five firsts for Desmond Bane<\/a> yet stayed in the bottom 10 in both 3-point attempts and percentage. Paolo Banchero<\/a> didn\u2019t get better \u2014 if anything he got worse. And Franz Wagner had another injury-riddled season, appearing in less than half the games. But it\u2019s not a coincidence they rattled off a win streak as soon as he returned. That\u2019s what makes him the X-factor: The Magic won\u2019t go anywhere without his downhill attacking, connective passing, and versatile defense. With him, they can at least compete.<\/p>\n

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Nobody ever talks about Diabat\u00e9. He\u2019s unbelievable as a defensive player: 31 bigs have defended at least 1,000 pick-and-rolls, Moussa has switched on 30% of those. That\u2019s the second-most in the NBA behind only Bam Adebayo<\/a>. He\u2019s able to switch on the guards, he\u2019s able to switch onto forwards. He has a number of chase-down blocks. He\u2019s always hustling in the passing lanes. He\u2019s running hard up the floor in transition. And his production will be one of the keys to the Hornets being a real threat in the East. Which makes him their X-factor. Because the Hornets just don\u2019t score. They defend too. And Moussa is a huge part of that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The NBA Playoffs are here! For every team, there is one player who can swing the series, for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":611538,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[557],"tags":[12993,5551,42158,7218,64,30097,63,16111,1664,19704,3893,12996,5670,3894,17603,174374,233324,12839,16112,1662,12989,7214,7224,23659,12842,39603,19711,5552,17422,5145,7220,36175,12268,149502,19701,5669,12831,3901,1173,68172,7230,63857,37975,7217,35183,74678,20449,7216,5662,32218,481,7232,11473,15609,60869,733,5665,32206,74679,590,13799,32203,1666,12846,5673,5548,12985,19710,31650,5136,9688,7185,7640,4621,16102,12994,60872,12837,10549,85,17205,12848,3018,3920,17602,52204,9694,218316],"class_list":{"0":"post-611537","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nba","8":"tag-ajay-mitchell","9":"tag-al-horford","10":"tag-amen-thompson","11":"tag-atlanta-hawks","12":"tag-au","13":"tag-austin-reaves","14":"tag-australia","15":"tag-bam-adebayo","16":"tag-boston-celtics","17":"tag-cade-cunningham","18":"tag-cam-johnson","19":"tag-carter-bryant","20":"tag-charlotte-hornets","21":"tag-chet-holmgren","22":"tag-cleveland-cavaliers","23":"tag-daniss-jenkins","24":"tag-dean-wade","25":"tag-deandre-ayton","26":"tag-deni-avdija","27":"tag-denver-nuggets","28":"tag-desmond-bane","29":"tag-detroit-pistons","30":"tag-devin-booker","31":"tag-donovan-mitchell","32":"tag-dylan-harper","33":"tag-evan-mobley","34":"tag-franz-wagner","35":"tag-golden-state-warriors","36":"tag-grizzlies","37":"tag-houston","38":"tag-houston-rockets","39":"tag-immanuel-quickley","40":"tag-indiana","41":"tag-isaiah-joe","42":"tag-jalen-duren","43":"tag-jalen-green","44":"tag-jalen-williams","45":"tag-jamal-murray","46":"tag-james-harden","47":"tag-jared-mccain","48":"tag-jayson-tatum","49":"tag-jj-redick","50":"tag-joel-embiid","51":"tag-jrue-holiday","52":"tag-julian-champagnie","53":"tag-julius-randle","54":"tag-karl-anthony-towns","55":"tag-kevin-durant","56":"tag-kon-knueppel","57":"tag-kyle-anderson","58":"tag-los-angeles","59":"tag-los-angeles-lakers","60":"tag-luka-doncic","61":"tag-luke-kornet","62":"tag-max-strus","63":"tag-memphis","64":"tag-minnesota-timberwolves","65":"tag-moussa-diabate","66":"tag-naz-reid","67":"tag-nba","68":"tag-nba-playoffs","69":"tag-neemias-queta","70":"tag-new-york-knicks","71":"tag-nickeil-alexander-walker","72":"tag-oklahoma-city","73":"tag-oklahoma-city-thunder","74":"tag-orlando-magic","75":"tag-paolo-banchero","76":"tag-paul-george","77":"tag-philadelphia","78":"tag-philadelphia-76ers","79":"tag-phoenix-suns","80":"tag-portland","81":"tag-portland-trail-blazers","82":"tag-quentin-grimes","83":"tag-reed-sheppard","84":"tag-rudy-gobert","85":"tag-san-antonio","86":"tag-san-antonio-spurs","87":"tag-sports","88":"tag-steph-curry","89":"tag-stephon-castle","90":"tag-team","91":"tag-toronto","92":"tag-toronto-raptors","93":"tag-tyrese-maxey","94":"tag-vj-edgecombe","95":"tag-wemby"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/611537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=611537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/611537\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/611538"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=611537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=611537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=611537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}