{"id":61213,"date":"2025-08-12T00:17:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T00:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/61213\/"},"modified":"2025-08-12T00:17:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T00:17:13","slug":"rba-live-updates-interest-rate-cut-expected-at-reserve-banks-august-meeting-asx-to-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/61213\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA live updates: Interest rate cut expected at Reserve Bank’s August meeting, ASX to fall"},"content":{"rendered":"

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:24pmReserve Bank to hand down interest rate decision 2:30pm AEST\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

The Reserve Bank board will wrap up its two-day monetary policy meeting and deliver its August interest rate decision at 2:30pm AEST today.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the central bank will release its latest economic forecasts in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.<\/p>\n

At 3:30pm AEST, governor Michele Bullock\u00a0will hold a press conference.<\/p>\n

We’ll have full coverage, market reaction and analysis throughout the day here on the blog and across ABC platforms.<\/p>\n

Drop us a comment or question if there’s anything you’d like\u00a0 discussed.<\/p>\n

6m agoTue 12 Aug 2025 at 12:09amTrump’s executive order extending China tariff deadline published\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Just in time for the local share market open, along with some other major indices in our time zone, the White House has now published the executive order extending the deadline on the higher tariffs on China to November 10.<\/p>\n

Here’s the detail:<\/p>\n

The United States continues to have discussions with the [People Republic of China] to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns.<\/p>\n

Through these discussions, the PRC continues to take significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters.<\/p>\n

Based on this additional information and recommendations from various senior officials, among other things, I have determined that it is necessary and appropriate to continue the suspension effectuated by Executive Order 14298 until 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on November 10, 2025.<\/p>\n

20m agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 11:56pm<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfa5Finance report with Daniel Ziffer\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Just five minutes until the ASX opens \u2014 catch up on how we got here with Daniel Ziffer’s finance report:<\/p>\n

Loading…<\/p>\n

42m agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 11:33pm<\/p>\n

Debt relief now vs higher house prices\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

as a homeowner, I’m not keen on a rate cut. I’m drowning in debt and would save $200\/month with a 25bp cut, but I know I want to upgrade my home in the future. I’ll never be able to do that if prices keep going up every time we get a cut.<\/p>\n

– concerned<\/p>\n

Thanks for your comment \u2014 the catch-22 of the Australian property market.<\/p>\n

Commonwealth Bank\u00a0economists updated their home price forecasts recently:<\/p>\n

“We now expect growth of 6 per cent in 2025 (previously 4 per cent) and 4 per cent in 2026 (previously 5 per cent),” they wrote.<\/p>\n

“The upward revision this year reflects current market momentum, a still sound labour market and strong real household disposable incomes.<\/p>\n

“However, given our forecast for a relatively shallow interest rate cycle, easing population growth and continued headwinds in the construction sector, this home price upswing is still expected to be relatively modest and taper out in 2026.”<\/p>\n

The CBA forecast is conditional on the RBA cutting rates by 25 basis points today, and by another 25bp in November.<\/p>\n

If the RBA cuts rates again after that, in early 2026, it could see a stronger rise in property prices than they’re forecasting.<\/p>\n

They note Australia’s housing affordability woes are far from over, in this situation.<\/p>\n

“There is little cause for celebration,” they say.<\/p>\n

Here’s analysis from Gareth Hutchens:<\/p>\n

58m agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 11:18pm<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcacShare your views in the comments\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

If you joined us here on the blog during last month’s interest rate decision, welcome back. Are you trusting the forecasts and market pricing this time around, after July’s surprise decision?<\/p>\n

You can share your views on what an interest rate cut would mean for you \u2014 whether you’re a home loan borrower, a saver, an investor, a renter, a retiree, an aspiring home buyer\u2026 or if you’re here for other news, you can leave us a comment or ask a question too.<\/p>\n

Hit the comment button above \u2b06\ufe0f<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 11:14pm<\/p>\n

CNBC Washington correspondents hadn’t seen text of executive order on China tariffs\"Michael<\/p>\n

So, I am still digging around on this.<\/p>\n

I have looked at the X profiles of the CNBC reporters looking at the China tariff story.<\/p>\n

This came out four hours ago from the network’s senior Washington correspondent Eamon Javers:<\/p>\n

His colleague Megan Cassella posted a similar update around the same time:<\/p>\n

Neither have posted any X posts since.<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 11:08pm<\/p>\n

The reports of a Chinese tariff order come from a ‘White House official’\"Michael<\/p>\n

Digging further into this coverage of an executive order extending lower (still 30%) US tariffs on Chinese imports, it seems these come from the statements of an unnamed “White House official”.<\/p>\n

This is what US financial news service CNBC is reporting:<\/p>\n

\"CNBCCNBC coverage of US China tariff extension (CNBC)<\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal is reporting the same, as are the news wire services.<\/p>\n

Said order has not yet appeared on the White House website, but we’ll keep monitoring.<\/p>\n

It must be said, these are very reputable news services all reporting the same thing, so it seems clear that the White House has put out the message that the order has been signed.<\/p>\n

Maybe there is a technical difficulty with uploading the document? In the meantime, we’ll keep an eye on the White House website.<\/p>\n

You can too, if you’re interested. It’s a webpage worth looking at, if nothing else, just for the titles of the executive orders Donald Trump has signed so far.<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 11:06pm<\/p>\n

Reporting season rolls on\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

In non-RBA news, ASX-listed companies continue to reveal their profit results as reporting season rolls on \u2014 it’s still in the slower stages, compared to the upcoming onslaught of next week.<\/p>\n

Life360, Seven West Media and Seven Group\u00a0are on today’s agenda.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow, Commonwealth Bank\u00a0will be the major focus for market-watchers.<\/p>\n

You can search for companies and sectors you’re interested in using the calendar:<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 10:58pmRate cuts are coming, but are they too late?\"Samuel<\/p>\n

Having dashed hopes for some much-needed respite from cost-of-living pressures three weeks ago, it would be a brave RBA that again denies households a rate cut today, writes\u00a0chief business correspondent Ian Verrender.<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 10:57pm<\/p>\n

Still waiting on publication of US executive order extending lower Chinese tariffs\"Michael<\/p>\n

While all the reports are that US president Donald Trump has already signed an executive order extending the lower tariff rates on Chinese imports (still 30%, but lower than the 145% that was in place), as of 8:50am AEST the order was still not published on the White House website.<\/p>\n

That’s slightly odd, given that the order taking over policing in Washington DC, also signed this morning, is up on the website.<\/p>\n

\"WhiteWhite House executive orders website (White House)<\/p>\n

I am assuming it’s just taking a while to be uploaded, but worth watching.<\/p>\n

We’ll keep an eye on the website and update you through the morning.<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 10:53pm<\/p>\n

Market pricing, economist forecasts see rate cut as sure thing\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

If you saw last month’s headlines ahead of the Reserve Bank board’s surprise decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.85 per cent<\/a>, you might be reluctant to put too much weight behind forecasts, but here they are regardless.<\/p>\n

All 40 economists polled by Reuters expect the cash rate to be cut to 3.6 per cent\u00a0this afternoon.<\/p>\n

Of the 38 economists who were forecasting where the cash rate will sit at the end of 2025, 35 expect it to be 3.35 per cent \u2014 indicating a further interest rate cut on top of the one forecast today.<\/p>\n

As for how financial markets are seeing it, interest rate derivatives\u00a0pricing according to LSEG Refinitiv indicates a 97.3 per cent chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut, as of 8:50am AEST.<\/p>\n

1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 10:36pm<\/p>\n

Should EV owners pay their ‘fair share’ of road use?\"Samuel<\/p>\n

Infrastructure Partnerships Australia is the latest to convene its own roundtable looking at specific measures to increase the tax take, setting its sights on the introduction of a road user charge for electric vehicles.<\/p>\n

The think tank’s chief executive, Adrian Dwyer, says the plan is to modernise the system so everyone who uses the road pays their “fair share”.<\/p>\n

Currently, drivers pay about 51 cents a litre in fuel excise when they fill up at the petrol or diesel bowser, but that excludes EV drivers.<\/p>\n

Under the distance-based road user tax proposal, which Infrastructure Partnerships Australia has long called for, EV drivers would pay about 5 cents per kilometre to use the road.<\/p>\n

Loading…1h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 10:33pmMillions spent on ski resorts to combat competition and climate change\"Samuel<\/p>\n

Alpine operators are making substantial investments in infrastructure, accommodation and hospitality venues, betting on a growing population, increasingly diverse snow-lovers and improved snowmaking technology that is extending seasons.<\/p>\n

Watch this story by business reporter Dan Ziffer.<\/p>\n

Loading…<\/p>\n

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 10:04pm<\/p>\n

How has the RBA’s cash rate been tracking?\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

Economist forecasts and market pricing are pointing to an\u00a00.25 percentage point cut\u00a0this afternoon \u2014 that\u00a0would take it from 3.85 per cent\u00a0to 3.6 per cent.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0last time\u00a0the cash rate sat at 3.6 per cent\u00a0was in April 2023.<\/p>\n

Here’s how it has tracked:<\/p>\n

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:46pmInflation easing means a rate cut is seen as a ‘done deal’\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

At last month’s Reserve Bank meeting, the monetary policy board was split on whether to cut interest rates or keep them on hold.<\/p>\n

The majority voted to hold fire on a rate cut, with governor Michele Bullock pointing to the then-upcoming quarterly inflation data as key to its wait-and-see approach.<\/p>\n

Well, at the end of July we got the data. Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 2.1 per cent in the June quarter, down from 2.4 per cent in the March quarter.<\/p>\n

The “trimmed mean” measure of inflation, which is the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, eased from 2.9 to 2.7 per cent between March and June, which broadly matches the central bank’s forecasts from May.<\/p>\n

David Bassanese, BetaShares chief economist, said the decline in trimmed mean inflation reflected broad-based easing in goods, services, and housing-related inflation.<\/p>\n

“Although this is a touch higher than the Reserve Bank’s May forecast of 2.6 per cent, my view is ‘near enough is good enough’ and an August rate cut now seems a done deal,” he said after the release of the data.<\/p>\n

You can read more from business reporter Gareth Hutchens, who will be joining us on the blog later today:<\/p>\n

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:44pmTrump extends China’s 125pc tariff deadline for another 90 days\"Samuel<\/p>\n

A tariff truce between Beijing and Washington has been extended another 90 days.<\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order extending a pause in sharply higher US tariffs on Chinese imports.<\/p>\n

China said it was hoping to see “positive” signals from the US administration.<\/p>\n

If it is not extended, US tariffs on Chinese goods will shoot up to 145 per cent, with Chinese tariffs on US imports set to hit 125 per cent.<\/p>\n

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:43pmWall Street down as investors eye inflation data and US-China trade\"Samuel<\/p>\n

Wall Street’s main indexes ended lower on Monday as investors anxiously await inflation data this week to assess the outlook for interest rates and eye US-China trade developments.<\/p>\n

Investors expect the recent shakeup at the US Federal Reserve and signs of labor market weakness could nudge the central bank into adopting a dovish monetary policy stance later this year, fueling much of the optimism.<\/p>\n

July’s consumer inflation report is due on Tuesday, and investors anticipate that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by about 60 basis points by December, according to data compiled by LSEG.<\/p>\n

“The inflation data is starting to embody the more direct tariff impacts on the consumer, raising concern that inflation will remain sticky,” said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management.<\/p>\n

“Lower inflationary readings and slower growth numbers are needed to support the case for lower rates.”<\/p>\n

A US official told Reuters the\u00a0semiconductor majors had agreed to give the United States government 15% of revenue from sales of their advanced chips to China.<\/p>\n

Analysts said the levy\u00a0could hit\u00a0the chipmakers’ margins and set a precedent for Washington to tax critical US exports, potentially extending beyond semiconductors.<\/p>\n

Separately, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order extending a pause in sharply higher US tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days, a White House official said.<\/p>\n

Enabling semiconductor sales to China was an integral issue in the agreement Washington and Beijing signed this year, which expires on Tuesday. Trump\u00a0lauded\u00a0China’s cooperation in talks at a White House press conference on Monday.<\/p>\n

Reporting by Reuters<\/p>\n

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:35pm<\/p>\n

Market snapshot\"SamuelASX 200 futures: -0.1% to 8,783 pointsAustralian dollar: Flat at 65.12 US centsS&P 500: -0.3% to 6,373 pointsNasdaq: -0.3% to 21,385 pointsFTSE: +0.4% to 9,129 pointsEuroStoxx: -0.2% to 568 pointsSpot gold: -1.4% to $US3,344\/ounceBrent crude: +0.2% to $US66.69\/barrelIron ore:\u00a0+1.4% to $US103.55\/tonneBitcoin: -0.1% to $US118,759<\/p>\n

Price current around 7:30am AEST<\/p>\n

Live updates on the major ASX indices:<\/p>\n

2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:22pm\ud83d\udd14RBA decision to be delivered at 2:30pm AEST\"Stephanie<\/p>\n

The countdown is on until the August interest rates decision and you’re in the right place.<\/p>\n

As well as our usual markets and business news updates, we’ll be bringing you comprehensive coverage of the\u00a0Reserve Bank board’s latest rates decision\u00a0at\u00a02:30pm AEST\u00a0today.<\/p>\n

That’ll be across all platforms, including here on the blog and on\u00a0ABC News Channel<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Loading2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:22pmASX to fall\"Samuel<\/p>\n

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday’s markets live blog, where we’ll bring you the latest price action and news on the ASX and beyond.<\/p>\n

A tumble on Wall Street overnight sets the tone for local market action today.<\/p>\n

The Dow Jones index dropped 0.5 per cent, the S&P 500 lost 0.3 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.3 per cent.<\/p>\n

ASX futures were down 13 points or 0.1 per cent to 8,783 at 7:00am AEST.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the Australian dollar flat at 65.12 US cents.<\/p>\n

Brent crude oil was up 0.2 per cent, trading at $US66.69 a barrel.<\/p>\n

Spot gold dropped 1.7 per cent to $US3,342.45.<\/p>\n

Iron ore rose 1.4 per cent to $US103.55 a tonne.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2h agoMon 11 Aug 2025 at 9:24pmReserve Bank to hand down interest rate decision 2:30pm AEST The Reserve…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61214,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[2001,64,63,166,2009,99,2005,164,49448,49447,5465,5626,160,2010,21131,2006,49446,14825,7054,21923,16776,2002,1491],"class_list":["post-61213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-asx","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-dollar","tag-bitcoin","tag-business","tag-dow-jones","tag-economy","tag-home-loan","tag-home-loan-rate","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-live-blog","tag-live-update","tag-mortgage","tag-nyse","tag-rate-cut","tag-rates","tag-rba","tag-reporting-season","tag-reserve-bank","tag-share-market","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61213\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}