A National League general manager, granted anonymity for his candor, recently offered this bold prediction:<\/p>\n
The Athletics will win the AL West.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s too early for fans to start making travel plans for West Sacramento in October \u2014 and for Major League Baseball, ahem, to start panicking about the logistics of playing postseason games in a minor-league park. But the GM reasoned that the Athletics\u2019 offense will be among the game\u2019s best. So, he figured, if the A\u2019s could just manage league-average pitching, they would stand a chance.<\/p>\n
The Seattle Mariners, despite their slow start, remain the division favorite. Entering Wednesday, Fangraphs gave them a 49.4 percent chance<\/a> of winning the West, with the Texas Rangers at 31.4 percent and the Athletics at only 8.8 percent. The A\u2019s, though, have yet to start hitting, ranking near the bottom of the league in runs. Their pitching, meanwhile, has been close to league average, at least in terms of expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA).<\/p>\n It\u2019s a long season. In both areas, the Athletics seem likely to perform to expectations. They\u2019re going to hit, that much seems fairly certain. Their pitching probably isn\u2019t as good as it looked when the A\u2019s went 5-1 in New York last week against the Yankees and Mets, winning three of those games by shutouts. But the early indications, at least, are encouraging.<\/p>\n Signing free-agent starters is difficult for the A\u2019s, unless they overpay the way they did with Luis Severino (three years, $67 million) or take advantage of a soft market the way they did with Aaron Civale (one year, $6 million). But two trades president of baseball operations David Forst made for starters are looking good.<\/p>\n Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez came from the Tampa Bay Rays in the same six-player deal in December 2024, an exchange in which the A\u2019s biggest loss to this point was pitcher Joe Boyle. J.T. Ginn was part of the two-player return from the New York Mets for Chris Bassitt in March 2022.<\/p>\n No one will confuse the Athletics\u2019 rotation with the Dodgers\u2019, but Springs has a 1.46 ERA in his first four starts. Severino has been inconsistent, Civale solid. Lopez and Ginn reasonably project as competent back-end types.<\/p>\n The A\u2019s bullpen is the bigger question. Yet, going back to last season, manager Mark Kotsay has proven adept at mixing and matching, getting the most out of what he has. Kotsay already has used three different relievers \u2014 Mark Leiter Jr., Hogan Harris and the nearly 300-pound Joel Kuhnel \u2014 to earn saves.<\/p>\n Again, it\u2019s early. The A\u2019s got off to a 20-16 start last season, then fell into a 3-24 rut from May 6 to June 4. They went 53-46 the rest of the way, ranking eighth in the majors after the All-Star break in runs per game.<\/p>\n An A\u2019s optimist would point out the team entered Wednesday 9-8 even though reigning AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz had hit only home run and Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker (currently on the IL) and Jacob Wilson all had OPSes below .565.<\/p>\n Still, the A\u2019s remain not only a long shot to win the division, but also stand slightly less than a one-in-four chance of even making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. If they pitch well and the Mariners falter, things might get interesting. Otherwise, the NL GM\u2019s prediction will be one to forget.<\/p>\n Pirates\u2019 Griffin: Here to stay<\/p>\n Konnor Griffin\u2019s offensive stats in his first 12 games \u2014 a .189 batting average, .279 on-base percentage and .522 OPS \u2014 aren\u2019t good. Neither are his Statcast metrics, except for his sprint speed, which ranks in the 96th percentile, and his bat speed, which ranks in the 80th.<\/p>\n Pittsburgh Pirates manager Don Kelly, however, said a demotion for the rookie shortstop is not under consideration.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t even know at what point that would enter the discussion,\u201d Kelly said Wednesday. \u201cThat\u2019s not even in the realm of possibility right now. He\u2019s going to be up here.\u201d<\/p>\n The Pirates demonstrated their commitment to Griffin last week by signing him to a nine-year, $140 million contract. And both inside and outside the Pittsburgh organization, baseball people marvel at Griffin\u2019s talent.<\/p>\n A case in point occurred Sunday at Wrigley Field, in the Pirates\u2019 series finale against the Chicago Cubs. Griffin went 1-for-11 with five strikeouts in the series. But one Cubs person noted how in his final at-bat, he ripped a 106.6-mph line drive to shortstop on a down-and-away 3-2 sweeper from Ethan Roberts that was well outside the strike zone.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s doing great, honestly,\u201d Kelly said. \u201cWe\u2019re talking about a 19-year-old kid who has, what, five games above Double A? He\u2019s learning. We know there\u2019s going to be a lot of development still in the big leagues.\u201d<\/p>\n Kelly cited another sequence from the Pirates\u2019 16-5 victory Monday over the Washington Nationals that showed Griffin\u2019s ability to disrupt a game. With the Pirates trailing, 1-0, Griffin drew a one-out walk off Cade Cavalli in the second inning to spark a four-run rally.<\/p>\n \u201cThe pitcher sped up, started throwing balls, trying to be quicker to have him not steal,\u201d Kelly said. \u201cIt wasn\u2019t a home run. But he changed the game because he got on base.\u201d<\/p>\n Griffin\u2019s range makes him an occasional difference-maker at short as well, even as he is still learning the nuances of the position. The Pirates view him as the whole package, makeup and all. And they expect him to only get better.<\/p>\n If only they had drafted Posey\u2026<\/p>\n Catcher Nick Fortes is off to a good start with the Tampa Bay Rays, batting .304 with a .790 OPS. If he can\u2019t entirely solve \u201cThe Curse of Buster Posey,\u201d perhaps he can point the Rays in the right direction at a position that has long haunted them.<\/p>\n The Rays took high-school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick of the 2008 draft<\/a>, bypassing Florida State\u2019s Posey, who went to the Giants at No. 5. Posey went on to a potential Hall of Fame career. The Rays have yet to find anything close to a franchise catcher.<\/p>\n Toby Hall, a ninth-round pick in 1997, is the Rays\u2019 career leader in bWAR by a catcher at 5.7. John Jaso, a 12th-rounder in 2003, is next at 4.0, followed by Mike Zunino, a trade acquisition from the Seattle Mariners, at 2.6. Zunino, at least, hit 33 homers and was an All-Star in 2021.<\/p>\n Fortes, acquired at last year\u2019s deadline for minor-league outfielder Matthew Etzel, probably is no more than a typical Rays stopgap. But The Athletic\u2019s Keith Law included two catching prospects in his Rays\u2019 Top 20<\/a> and also made mention of a third.<\/p>\n The Rays made Nathan Flewelling, 19, the 94th pick in 2024 out of a high school in Alberta, Canada. Law ranked him the Rays\u2019 sixth-best prospect and said he just missed inclusion in his overall top 100.<\/p>\n Caden Bodine, acquired last offseason in the Shane Baz trade, was No. 12 on Law\u2019s Rays list. Dominic Keegan, a fourth-rounder in 2022, did not crack Law\u2019s top 20 because of bat-speed concerns. Injuries also have slowed him. But the Rays love his makeup and still believe he has a chance.<\/p>\n Meet the Baltimore Mets<\/p>\n First baseman Pete Alonso and closer Ryan Helsley are the most prominent Baltimore Orioles who previously were New York Mets. But three other players who last were with the Mets organization \u2014 second baseman Jeremiah Jackson and relievers Anthony Nunez and Rico Garcia \u2014 also are making an early impact in Baltimore.<\/p>\n Jackson, who spent part of 2023 and \u201824 at Double A with the Mets after arriving in a trade from the Los Angeles Angels, signed with the Orioles as a minor-league free agent in November 2024. He didn\u2019t fare particularly well at Double A last season, but the Orioles pushed him to Triple A when they had an opening, and he hasn\u2019t stopped hitting since.<\/p>\n This week alone, Jackson hit two homers against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, including a grand slam, and another on Wednesday. The Orioles, dealing with injuries in both their infield and outfield, expect to have a place for him even after Jackson Holliday returns from hamate surgery. Jackson, 26, made 31 starts in right field last season.<\/p>\n \u201cHe can hit. He\u2019s got power. He has defensive tools and athleticism around the field,\u201d Orioles vice president of pro scouting Mike Snyder said. \u201cMechanically he had gone through a few different approaches with his swing, and sometimes that can lead to a short-term step back in performance. He was progressing each year, even if the offensive numbers were fluctuating. And we knew he was one to work hard and wouldn\u2019t shy away when his moment came.\u201d<\/p>\n Garcia, 32, has opened the season with nine scoreless innings, and he might be another example of a player finally coming into his own. For much of his career, teams passed him around on waivers. The Orioles, who claimed Garcia from the Mets last August, also had him in 2022. They are his seventh organization.<\/p>\n Nunez, 24, came to the Orioles as one of three relievers acquired at last year\u2019s deadline for center fielder Cedric Mullins. He has allowed just one run in 8 2\/3 innings thus far, and his back story is fascinating.<\/p>\n