{"id":613596,"date":"2026-04-17T20:09:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:09:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/613596\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T20:09:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:09:09","slug":"trail-blazers-vs-spurs-is-portland-ready-for-wemby-series-keys-schedule-and-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/613596\/","title":{"rendered":"Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: Is Portland ready for Wemby? Series keys, schedule and prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Western Conference\u2019s second-seeded San Antonio Spurs will take on the seventh-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs<\/a>. It\u2019s the first time these teams have squared off in the postseason since the 2014 Western Conference semifinals<\/a>, which the Spurs<\/a> won in five games.<\/p>\n

San Antonio\u2019s other starting big man in that series, lining up alongside Tim Duncan? A Brazilian guy by the name of Tiago Splitter \u2014 who\u2019s now the interim head coach of the Trail Blazers. It\u2019s a small world, after all.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

Schedule<\/a> | Odds<\/a> | Spurs breakdown<\/a> | Blazers breakdown<\/a>
Head-to-head<\/a> | Matchup to watch<\/a> | Key question<\/a> | Prediction<\/a><\/p>\n

East previews: 76ers-Celtics<\/a> \u2022 Hawks-Knicks<\/a> \u2022 Raptors-Cavaliers<\/a>
West previews: Timberwolves-Nuggets<\/a> \u2022 Rockets-Lakers<\/a> \u2022 Trail Blazers-Spurs<\/p>\n

Series schedule (all times Eastern)<\/p>\n

Game 1: Portland<\/a> at San Antonio<\/a> on Sunday, April 19 (9 p.m., NBC)
Game 2: Portland at San Antonio on Tuesday, April 21 (8 p.m., NBC)
Game 3: San Antonio at Portland on Friday, April 24 (10:30 p.m., Prime Video)
Game 4: San Antonio at Portland on Sunday, April 26 (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
*Game 5: Portland at San Antonio on Tuesday, April 28 (time and network TBD)
*Game 6: San Antonio at Portland on Thursday, April 30 (time and network TBD)
*Game 7: Portland at San Antonio on Saturday, May 2 (time and network TBD)<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

*if necessary<\/p>\n

Everything to know for the NBA playoffs: Predictions, series previews, X-factors<\/a><\/p>\n

Series odds<\/p>\n

(Via BetMGM<\/a>)<\/p>\n

San Antonio Spurs (-2500)
Portland Trail Blazers<\/a> (+1000)<\/p>\n

What we know about the Spurs<\/p>\n

They\u2019re arguably the NBA\u2019s most balanced team \u2014 third in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass<\/a>, joining the Celtics<\/a> as the only teams in the top five on both ends of the floor. They\u2019re also the league\u2019s hottest squad, going a scorching 30-4 and outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per 100 possessions since the start of February<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Everything starts with Victor Wembanyama<\/a>, the 22-year-old world-breaker whose ascent returned San Antonio to the ranks of the league\u2019s elite.<\/p>\n

After missing the final two months of the 2024-25 season following the discovery of a blood clot in his right shoulder<\/a>, Wembanyama returned with his sights set on establishing himself as one of the NBA\u2019s most dominant forces. The 7-foot-4 (allegedly<\/a>) center did just that, averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, a league-leading 3.1 blocks and 1 steal in 29.2 minutes per game. He traded in some of his more speculative 3s for more physical play in the paint; he smothered even more of the half-court on defense; he bent the game around him, cementing his standing as not only a lock for Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA First Team, but a likely top-three finish in MVP voting.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

What makes the Spurs so dangerous, though, is that while their dominance starts with Wembanyama, it doesn\u2019t end there.<\/p>\n

De\u2019Aaron Fox<\/a> provided exactly the high-level No. 2 scorer and primary ball-handler the Spurs hoped he\u2019d be when they traded for and re-signed him, smoothly shifting between focal point and complement while turning in arguably the best two-way play of his career. Stephon Castle<\/a> built on his Rookie of the Year campaign by becoming a better scorer and two-way playmaker\u00a0\u2014 one of just nine players in the league<\/a> this season to average at least 16 points and seven dimes per game, a list replete with All-Stars. Dylan Harper<\/a>, the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, immediately got into the lane like a 10-year vet and smashed through the rookie wall, averaging just under 13-4-4 in 24 minutes per game on 57\/40\/78 shooting splits over the final three months<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With Wembanyama at the center of the frame, the three-headed backcourt monster constantly pounding the paint and pushing the pace, and everyone from Julian Champagnie<\/a> to Luke Kornet<\/a> starring in their roles, everything fell into place in San Antonio. The overall record and underlying metrics say the Spurs have been the NBA\u2019s second-best team, behind only the defending champion Thunder. But good luck telling the Spurs \u2014 who, y\u2019know, beat Oklahoma City<\/a> four<\/a> times<\/a> this<\/a> season<\/a> \u2014 that they\u2019re second to anybody.<\/p>\n

What we know about the Trail Blazers<\/p>\n

After several meandering seasons, Splitter \u2014 who took the reins in Portland<\/a> after Chauncey Billups<\/a> was arrested and indicted<\/a> as part of a federal investigation into illegal gambling \u2014 got the Blazers back to the playoffs on the strength of a simple yet effective identity: Give Deni Avdija<\/a> the ball, get out of the way and get back on defense.<\/p>\n

The offensive leap that began in the relative anonymity of Washington<\/a> hit a new level, as Avdija averaged career highs in scoring and facilitating en route to his first All-Star selection. The only other players to average as many points, rebounds and assists per game as Avdija this season were Nikola Joki\u0107 and Luka Don\u010di\u0107<\/a> \u2026 which is, y\u2019know, pretty decent company.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

The Blazers needed Avdija to shoulder a monster offensive workload due to a rolling raft of injuries on the perimeter. Returning hero Damian Lillard<\/a> hasn\u2019t suited up \u2014 outside of All-Star Weekend<\/a>, anyway \u2014 as he rehabilitates a ruptured Achilles tendon. A right calf strain<\/a> kept offseason addition Jrue Holiday<\/a> sidelined from mid-November through mid-January; left Achilles tendinitis put Jerami Grant<\/a> in street clothes for 14 games. A torn hamstring<\/a> put Scoot Henderson<\/a> on the shelf for fourth months; as soon as he got back, multiple left leg injuries<\/a> cost Shaedon Sharpe<\/a> the next two.<\/p>\n

The result was extreme reliance on Avdija \u2014 top 20 in usage rate<\/a>, touches per game<\/a> and average time of possession<\/a>, in the 99th percentile in on-ball rate<\/a> \u2014 and an offense that rarely functioned all that smoothly: 20th in offensive efficiency<\/a> (though league-average in Deni\u2019s minutes<\/a>), 29th in team field-goal percentage<\/a> and dead last in turnover rate<\/a>. Portland worked to counteract that by creating extra possessions, with center Donovan Clingan<\/a> leading the way to a top-three offensive rebounding rate, and with an active, aggressive, near-top-10 defense<\/a> featuring ball-pressuring menaces like Holiday, Toumani Camara<\/a> and Matisse Thybulle<\/a> producing the NBA\u2019s seventh-best opponent turnover rate.<\/p>\n

That grind-it-out style helped Portland stay afloat, finish over .500 for the first time in five years despite a negative point differential<\/a> and earn a spot in the play-in tournament. From there, the Blazers went into Phoenix and blitzed past the Suns, with Avdija capping the best game of his career \u2014 41 points, seven rebounds, 12 assists, directly producing 71 of the Blazers\u2019 114 points \u2014 with a signature hard drive and finish:<\/p>\n

The Blazers are an understandably heavy underdog, but they might also be a livelier one than the full-season numbers suggest. Since February\u2019s trade deadline, they\u2019re 20-12 with the NBA\u2019s fourth-stingiest defense<\/a>. Their new starting lineup \u2014 Avdija, Holiday, Henderson, Camara and Clingan \u2014 is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 25 points in 94 minutes<\/a>. Their second unit is starting to jell, with the now-healthy Grant and Sharpe joining Thybulle, Robert Williams III<\/a> and Kris Murray<\/a> in a long, athletic group with some two-way juice.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

And, after a midseason lull while dealing with a nagging back injury, Avdija \u2014 averaging 27-7-7 over his last 10 games \u2014 is playing like the kind of star teams need to shine brightest at this time of year. Continuing to shine against this Spurs defense, though, will be an awfully tall order.<\/p>\n

Head-to-head<\/p>\n

The Spurs won the season series, 2-1. They knocked off Portland in November, scoring a 115-102 win<\/a> that eliminated the Blazers from NBA Cup play. Fox and Avdija both starred, putting up matching monster lines: 37 points, six rebounds, eight assists. But while Avdija sputtered down the stretch, going 2-for-8 from the free-throw line in the fourth quarter, Fox shined in the clutch, scoring 14 in the final frame, including an 8-for-8 mark from the stripe to seal the win.<\/p>\n

The Blazers returned serve in January, eking out a 115-110 win<\/a> behind a 29-10-10 triple-double from Avdija, a 24-point, 12-rebound double-double from Clingan and five 3-pointers from Camara. Even with all that Portland production, though, the Spurs had a chance to take the lead with just over a minute left \u2026 but a missed pull-up by Fox, followed by a made pull-up by Avdija, helped the Blazers score one of just eight victories for a visitor to San Antonio this season.<\/p>\n

San Antonio finished the season series last week with a 112-101 win<\/a>, as Fox turned in another strong showing against the Blazers. (For the season, he averaged 27 points, 6.3 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 3 steals in 34.1 minutes per game against Portland on 48\/44\/90 shooting splits.)<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

But while Portland\u2019s starters showed out \u2014 29-6-6 for Avdija, double-doubles for Holiday and Clingan, a 20-point showing for Henderson, 18 with four triples for Camara \u2014\u00a0the Spurs emphatically won the battle of the benches, with Sixth Man of the Year candidate Keldon Johnson<\/a> (20 points, eight rebounds, two steals, an assist and a block in 29 minutes) doubling up Portland\u2019s reserves by himself.<\/p>\n

Injuries impacted the matchups. Castle missed two of the three meetings for San Antonio. Henderson and Grant missed two of three for Portland, who were also without Holiday, Williams and Thybulle in its lone win.<\/p>\n

The biggest literal and figurative absence, though, was Wembanyama, who missed all three games against the Blazers this season, and whom Portland hasn\u2019t seen since Dec. 21, 2024<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 a night when he lit them up for 30 points in 30 minutes and blocked a career-high-tying 10 shots:<\/p>\n

I might be going out on a limb, but I think Wemby might change the matchup.<\/p>\n

Matchup to watch<\/p>\n

Avdija vs. Wembanyama in the paint.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

The battle for the real estate in front of the rim is something that Tom Haberstroh and I discussed at length on this week\u2019s episode of The Big Number<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Nobody in the NBA drove to the basket<\/a>, generated free-throw attempts on drives<\/a> or delivered assists off drives<\/a> this season more than Avdija did. His relentless rim pressure is the organizing principle of Portland\u2019s offense. The Blazers ranked fifth in the NBA this season in the share of their shots that came at the rim and fourth in the share of their shots that came from beyond the arc, according to Cleaning the Glass<\/a>, and were third in fouls drawn on drives<\/a> and 10th in assists at the rim per game<\/a> \u2014 all of which flows directly from Avdija\u2019s persistent attacking.<\/p>\n

His ability to consistently bulldoze past defenders at the point of attack, get to his strong right hand and put his even-stronger-left-shoulder into a retreating would-be stopper creates a ton of scoring chances directly at the cup \u2014 one likely to end in either a bucket, a trip to the charity stripe or a reset for a Blazers squad that, led by Clingan and Williams, finished first in second-chance points per game<\/a>. It also produced lots of opportunities for his teammates to feast on kickouts, with Avdija\u2019s penetration drawing defensive attention and opening up passing lanes for either a quick catch-and-shoot launch \u2014 only five teams scored more points per game than Portland on spot-up shots<\/a>, according to Synergy \u2014 or another drive past a step-slow closeout, keeping the blender whirring.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not a particularly pretty offense, but it does have a certain brutal elegance: We\u2019re betting that if we keep pounding our battering ram into your castle gate, eventually it\u2019s going to smash open, and we\u2019ll be able to come in and take whatever we want.<\/p>\n

The thing is, San Antonio isn\u2019t just guarded by a gate. It\u2019s defended by a dragon.<\/p>\n

The Blazers took more than 35% of their shots at the rim<\/a>. Against Wembanyama, though, Spurs opponents took just 26% of their shots there<\/a>; that would\u2019ve been the NBA\u2019s second-lowest mark this season<\/a>. They scored just 38 points per 100 possessions in the paint<\/a> and shot just 47.5% inside the arc with Wembanyama on the floor<\/a> \u2014 both very, very far below what the NBA\u2019s worst interior attacks managed over the course of the full season.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

And as excellent as the Blazers are at generating second chances, Wemby and Co. are just as good at limiting them; he led the league in defensive rebounding rate<\/a> among individual defenders, the Spurs led the league in defensive rebounding rate among teams<\/a>, and they held opponents to just 13.7 second-chance points per game, fourth-fewest in the NBA<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When Wembanyama suited up against the Blazers last season, he primarily guarded Portland\u2019s centers: either Clingan or Deandre Ayton<\/a>. Johnson did dabble a bit, though, with him guarding Camara \u2014 a cross-match aimed at allowing him to roam off a not-that-threatening shooter in favor of being able to lurk around the paint and strike fear into the hearts of would-be drivers \u2026 like, for example, the league\u2019s most prolific driver.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen whether Johnson decides to play it straight or switch up the matchups. If he does, it\u2019ll be interesting to see how Splitter counters, what mismatches he thinks that might open up for a Blazers perimeter corps that, thanks to improvements from its youngsters and the arrival of Holiday, has more scoring and playmaking chops than last year\u2019s model.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

That, to me, is the biggest chess match on the board: Can the Blazers find a way to get Wembanyama out of the paint, whether by inviting him into the initial pick-and-roll and trying to beat him to the spot or by involving him in some prefatory screen-the-screener actions to try to make him navigate traffic away from the play? If they can\u2019t, will Avdija \u2014 justifiably confident in his ability to bust defenses up by driving harder and harder, again and again \u2014 be able to win his share of the races to the rim against the league\u2019s premier interior defender? And if he can\u2019t, can a Blazers team that finished the regular season shooting just 34.8% on jumpers, according to Synergy\u2019s tracking \u2014 29th in the NBA, ahead of only the Brooklyn Nets<\/a> \u2014 knock down enough outside shots to make this a series?<\/p>\n

(Here\u2019s where we note that in the Blazers\u2019 one win over the Spurs this season, they went 19-for-45, 42.2%, from 3-point range \u2026 and in their two losses, they went a combined 21-for-73, 28.8%.)<\/p>\n

Key question<\/p>\n

Can the Blazers take care of the ball?<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

I mentioned it up top: The Blazers ranked dead last in the NBA in turnover rate<\/a> this season, coughing up the ball on 16.8% of their offensive possessions, and allowed a league-high 21.4 points per game off those miscues<\/a>. That\u2019s a recipe for disaster for a team like Portland \u2014 one that is excellent at getting stops in the half-court<\/a>, but typically very bad at getting buckets in the half-court<\/a>. When you can\u2019t really match the other guys\u2019 firepower, you need to both maximize the chances you do get and refrain from giving them even more.<\/p>\n

When the Blazers have been able to do that, they\u2019ve been pretty damn good. Counting their play-in victory, in games where they\u2019ve registered a turnover rate of 15% or fewer \u2014 which, for context, is still a below-average level of ball security; Chicago<\/a> and Detroit<\/a> tied for 21st in the NBA at 15%<\/a> this season \u2014 they\u2019re 19-7, according to Cleaning the Glass<\/a>. That\u2019s a 60-win pace.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

However, that still leaves 57 games in which they\u2019ve turned it over on more than 15% of their offensive trips. And in those games, the Blazers are just 24-33 \u2014 a 35-win pace. That\u2019s a pretty massive difference.<\/p>\n

(In fairness to Portland, myriad backcourt injuries that led to Avdija being on the ball a career-high 35% of the time<\/a> and more than 1,000 minutes for two-way rookie guard Caleb Love<\/a> help explain a lot of those elevated turnover numbers. When the Blazers have had Avdija, Holiday and Henderson on the floor, they\u2019ve taken care of the ball at a league-best rate<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

In a series like this, against an opponent like the Spurs \u2014 who finished with the third-lowest opponent turnover rate in the NBA this season, tending toward a more conservative defensive style befitting a team that can funnel everything into the world\u2019s best rim deterrent \u2014 coming down on the wrong side of the possession game is something the Blazers can ill afford. In two wins over Portland during the regular season, San Antonio turned 34 turnovers into 47 points; in the Blazers\u2019 lone win, they committed just 11 turnovers, leading to only nine Spurs points.<\/p>\n

An awful lot has to go right for the Blazers to have a chance of pulling what would be, by all accounts, a gargantuan upset. One pretty good first step? Limit your self-inflicted wounds and don\u2019t give away extra possessions. The Spurs really don\u2019t need the charity; they can inflict plenty of wounds just fine all by themselves.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Spurs in five<\/p>\n

Between Avdija\u2019s physical driving, Clingan\u2019s bulk on the interior, the positional size the Blazers can bring to bear across the perimeter, the quality defenders they can throw at Fox, Castle and Harper, and the quality of their depth, I don\u2019t think this is going to be a comfortable matchup for San Antonio. I do think it\u2019s one they\u2019ll be able to withstand, though, finishing off a tough but quick series and moving on to bigger and better things.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Western Conference\u2019s second-seeded San Antonio Spurs will take on the seventh-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the first…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":613597,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[574],"tags":[64,63,726,1902,5997,17431,2870,27164,5127,7222,12835,12839,16112,12266,5667,12842,7225,7217,35183,25467,297876,11473,15609,218448,590,13799,3906,5673,7640,4621,150705,12837,7234,7233,85,24942,12848,267261,28021,7229,12838],"class_list":{"0":"post-613596","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-basketball","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-basketball","11":"tag-blazers","12":"tag-brooklyn-nets","13":"tag-caleb-love","14":"tag-celtics","15":"tag-chauncey-billups","16":"tag-chicago","17":"tag-damian-lillard","18":"tag-deaaron-fox","19":"tag-deandre-ayton","20":"tag-deni-avdija","21":"tag-detroit","22":"tag-donovan-clingan","23":"tag-dylan-harper","24":"tag-jerami-grant","25":"tag-jrue-holiday","26":"tag-julian-champagnie","27":"tag-keldon-johnson","28":"tag-kris-murray","29":"tag-luka-doncic","30":"tag-luke-kornet","31":"tag-matisse-thybulle","32":"tag-nba","33":"tag-nba-playoffs","34":"tag-nikola-jokic","35":"tag-oklahoma-city","36":"tag-portland","37":"tag-portland-trail-blazers","38":"tag-robert-williams-iii","39":"tag-san-antonio","40":"tag-scoot-henderson","41":"tag-shaedon-sharpe","42":"tag-sports","43":"tag-spurs","44":"tag-stephon-castle","45":"tag-the-blazers","46":"tag-the-spurs","47":"tag-toumani-camara","48":"tag-victor-wembanyama"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/613596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=613596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/613596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/613597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=613596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=613596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=613596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}