There are a million ways to tease apart a playoff series. You can cherry-pick fancy stats (which I\u2019ve done!), but the reality is, you\u2019re guessing about what\u2019s going to be most important. Will it come down to puck possession? Forecheck chances? Or maybe the penalty kill? Goaltending or toughness? Which ultimate strength perseveres over time?\u00a0<\/p>\n
There\u2019s pressure, experience and a whole host of other factors that can impact the outcome, including injuries.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In the end, we can\u2019t know for sure what will win the day. But as we dive into each playoff series \u2014 after the teams involved have played 82 games apiece \u2014 we\u2019ve got an idea which trends are meaningful.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Using those, I\u2019m here to offer what are flat-out opinions on what will happen in Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Below are my picks, with a paragraph or two on what influenced my thinking most.<\/p>\n
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators<\/a> (Game 1 – Saturday on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ – Coverage starts at 2:30 p.m. ET)<\/p>\n Pick: Hurricanes in seven<\/p>\n Why: The vast majority of people have been picking Ottawa here, and I get that, they\u2019ve been red hot. But I instinctively get my back up at the idea that the team that steadily built 113 points with solid underlying numbers is being treated as the underdog. I\u2019m suspicious of the argument that the thing that submarined the Senators this season (goaltending) is somehow a solved problem come playoffs because Linus Ullmark had a good two weeks. I also have trouble buying that the things that lifted the Canes to the league\u2019s third-best goal differential have gone away.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Sens have had an awesome year as a team and can definitely win this series \u2014 I love their D and their depth up front \u2014 but Carolina is a handful, every line skates, their D makes plays and defends, and I just think it\u2019s going to be super tight. Yes, the Canes have goaltending questions of their own and many think the Sens can out-grit them, but the Canes have ample playoff experience and home-ice advantage could matter. If the Sens win Round 1, all bets are off. But Round 1? It\u2019s gonna be a nailbiter.<\/p>\n Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers (Game 1 – Saturday on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ – Coverage starts at 8 p.m. ET)<\/p>\n Why: Sometimes a group just isn\u2019t ready. When I look at the Flyers, I see important pieces on the upswing that are still so young, like Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone and Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale. This is going to be great experience for them. In the Penguins, I still see Sid and Geno, still see Letang and Karlsson.<\/p>\n Of course, there\u2019s so much more to it than the advantages of age and experience, as the Flyers have Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim and a goalie, in Dan Vladar, who can be great, while the Pens have their own question marks (goaltending) and youth. But I just think to win, you need your most important people ready for the big moments, and I don\u2019t think the Flyers are quite there yet.\u00a0<\/p>\n