{"id":619701,"date":"2026-04-20T18:27:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T18:27:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/619701\/"},"modified":"2026-04-20T18:27:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T18:27:11","slug":"2026-nfl-draft-our-favorite-bets-ahead-of-thursday-nights-first-round","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/619701\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NFL Draft: Our favorite bets ahead of Thursday night’s first round"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 2026 NFL Draft<\/a> is almost here, and the Las Vegas Raiders<\/a> will be on the clock to start Round 1 beginning this Thursday in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. There are plenty of mock drafts out there, but not many articles about betting on the NFL Draft. We know that Fernando Mendoza (-10000 favorite to go No. 1 overall at BetMGM<\/a>) is going first to the Raiders, but there is a lot of uncertainty after that.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t worry, we\u2019re here to help.<\/p>\n

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Yahoo Sports writers Nick Bromberg and Frank Schwab check in with a few of their favorite wagers ahead of Round 1.<\/p>\n

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.<\/p>\n

Favorite exact draft slot bet inside the top 10<\/p>\n

Nick Bromberg: Can I interest you in the odds for a couple of Ohio State linebackers who could head to the New York metro area? Arvell Reese is -300 to go No. 2 to the New York Jets<\/a> (assuming they hold onto that selection). It\u2019s easy to see how Reese\u2019s combination of talents and all-around projection as an edge rusher would make the Jets pick him ahead of someone like Texas Tech\u2019s David Bailey.<\/p>\n

At No. 5, Reese\u2019s teammate Sonny Styles<\/a> is +200 to go to the New York Giants<\/a>. After trading Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for the No. 10 pick<\/a>, the Giants can easily take Styles to immediately slot in the starting lineup before taking a player like Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 10.<\/p>\n

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Frank Schwab: I am on board with the idea of the Cardinals taking an offensive lineman at No. 3 overall, but figuring out which lineman is the tough assignment. The play here is Miami<\/a>\u2019s Francis Mauigoa at 12-1, but also make sure you get a little bit of Monroe Freeling at 50-1.<\/p>\n

Favorite team and first position drafted bet<\/p>\n

NB: The odds for the position of the player first drafted by the Chiefs<\/a> seem all out of whack to me. The second favorite is an offensive lineman at +250. Kansas City<\/a> has a fair amount of needs along the defensive line, in the secondary and even at wide receiver. Assuming Josh Simmons<\/a> returns to the lineup after his season-ending wrist injury, the Chiefs\u2019 offensive line should be one of the better units in the league.<\/p>\n

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Those needs are why you should throw a few bucks at either a defensive lineman or edge rusher at +225 or a wide receiver at +300. Could Caleb Downs<\/a> be the pick at No. 9 if Reese, Bailey and Rueben Bain Jr. are all off the board? Sure. Safety is 10-1. But I\u2019d put my money on one of those edge rushers still being available at No. 9.<\/p>\n

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FS: One comment from Carolina Panthers<\/a> general manager Dan Morgan about possibly taking a receiver in the first round<\/a> for a third straight year pushed those odds to +250, and receiver is the favorite to be the Panthers\u2019 first pick. I don\u2019t buy it. Offensive lineman is a possibility, but instead I\u2019ll go to safety at +525. Dillon Thieneman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren are both in the range of No. 19, when the Panthers pick, and they have a need there. It matches up pretty well, especially considering the odds.<\/p>\n

Which team will draft Jeremiyah Love?<\/p>\n

NB: There\u2019s some value to be had if you\u2019re convinced Love will go to the Titans. He\u2019s currently +110 to be picked by the Titans and -125 to go No. 4 overall. It\u2019s hard to see someone trading up to No. 4 to get him \u2014 unless the Commanders think they need to get ahead of the Giants at No. 5 \u2014 so if you think that Love is heading to Nashville, bet him to go to Tennessee<\/a> specifically at +110 odds and not to go No. 4.<\/p>\n

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I\u2019m thinking the Commanders (+250) are the best play, however. With the Giants having two top-10 picks, Styles is in line to be their first pick if he\u2019s still available. That could pave the way for Love to drop a couple spots to No. 7.<\/p>\n

FS: By the time last year\u2019s draft rolled around, the drumbeat on the Raiders taking running back Ashton Jeanty<\/a> was undeniable, even if it made little sense for a rebuilding team with many holes. So, we don\u2019t want to make the same mistake and ignore everyone mocking Love to the Titans at No. 4. But would Tennessee, with a defensive-minded head coach, really pass on Bailey or Reese for a running back, if they have that choice? That seems a bit hard to believe.<\/p>\n

The odds of Love to the Titans are just +110, and I don\u2019t have enough conviction on that being the pick. I do think a team with an extra top-10 pick could use one on a difference-making running back though. While I get Nick\u2019s argument for Styles at No. 5, they did just sign Tremaine Edmunds<\/a> to a three-year, $36 million deal and Micah McFadden<\/a> was re-signed too. I\u2019m liking the Giants to take Love at +650.<\/p>\n

Which team will draft Ty Simpson<\/a>?<\/p>\n

NB: This is a tough one for me given the potential strength of the 2027 quarterback class. Simpson spent four years at Alabama, but he was just a starter for one. Is anyone going to use a first-round pick on Simpson or will he be waiting until Friday for his name to be called?<\/p>\n

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The Cardinals are the obvious favorites given their quarterback room, but it\u2019s easy to see the Jets taking a flier if he\u2019s still available at the start of the second round. New York at +250 might be the play. They have the first pick of the second round. Arizona picks second on Friday night.<\/p>\n

FS: The Cardinals are significant favorites to draft Simpson at -175. I\u2019m not sure it makes much sense for Arizona, which will have a prime pick in 2027 for a much better quarterback class \u2014 but the Cardinals aren\u2019t exactly known for their sound decisions. I guess that\u2019s the best bet for Simpson, but there\u2019s no value in the odds.<\/p>\n

So for a longer shot, how about the Browns at 15-1? They have an extra pick in the first round, 24th overall, thanks to the Travis Hunter<\/a> trade. Their apparent favorite to start at quarterback might be Deshaun Watson<\/a>, which \u2026 ugh. Take a piece of the Browns taking Simpson and get ready to add yet another name to that Browns QB jersey.<\/p>\n

Favorite long shot to be a top-10 pick?<\/p>\n

NB: Outside of Fernando Mendoza, who doesn\u2019t have any odds listed, eight players have odds at -115 or better to be chosen inside the top 10. They are Love, Styles, Downs, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Mauigoa, Bain, and Mansoor Delane. That leaves just one more spot for a player who could be considered a long shot to jump into the top 10 unless any of those players fall out.<\/p>\n

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That makes this a hard selection. I\u2019ll go with Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy at +700. Teams are always looking for cornerbacks, and McCoy clocked a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at his pro day. Assuming teams are comfortable with his medical records after he missed the 2025 season because of a torn ACL, there\u2019s plenty to like in his game and his attributes to make him a high pick.<\/p>\n

FS: I mentioned him before, but Georgia\u2019s Monroe Freeling seems like a good play at +900. He\u2019s a high-upside player at a premium position from a program that has produced a bunch of NFL stars. Most teams have at least one problematic spot on the offensive line, so just about any team in the top 10 outside of the Raiders at No. 1 or the Jets at No. 2 (who do have two good offensive tackles) could be in play to take a tackle. Also, former NFL coach Mike Tice loved him when he sat down to talk <\/a>to Yahoo Sports\u2019 Nate Tice about offensive linemen, and I trust that he\u2019s not alone. Freeling is a good value play.<\/p>\n

Will Rueben Bain Jr. be picked before or after his draft position O\/U of 9.5?<\/p>\n

NB: Before, but just barely. I can\u2019t see any way the Chiefs don\u2019t pick an edge rusher if one of the top three are available. And Bain is flexible enough to immediately start on the edge and move inside next to Chris Jones<\/a> on passing downs to be a useful chess piece for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his attempt to generate more pressure with the front four.<\/p>\n

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FS: I trust Nick when it comes to Chiefs knowledge, so he\u2019s probably right that Bain won\u2019t get past Kansas City at No. 9. Still, it\u2019s also easy to see Bain as a draft faller, due to his arm length and the off-field issues<\/a> that have been reported this month. I\u2019ll take under 9.5, just because Bain was such a dominant college player at a valuable position and before the pre-draft process started this offseason he was a good bet to go as high as No. 2 overall. But I don\u2019t have too much confidence in it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2026 NFL Draft is almost here, and the Las Vegas Raiders will be on the clock to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":619702,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[17076,133474,1281,64,63,5360,133465,1257,5386,9101,128653,21977,55397,103353,133442,54979,147338,65950,13521,1250,5140,93005,241700,1242,1235,593,300488,33875,133452,133467,85,973,3750,217782,1285,169846,76895],"class_list":{"0":"post-619701","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-2026-nfl-draft","9":"tag-arvell-reese","10":"tag-ashton-jeanty","11":"tag-au","12":"tag-australia","13":"tag-bengals","14":"tag-caleb-downs","15":"tag-carolina-panthers","16":"tag-chiefs","17":"tag-chris-jones","18":"tag-david-bailey","19":"tag-deshaun-watson","20":"tag-dexter-lawrence","21":"tag-fernando-mendoza","22":"tag-francis-mauigoa","23":"tag-frank-schwab","24":"tag-jordyn-tyson","25":"tag-josh-simmons","26":"tag-kansas-city","27":"tag-las-vegas-raiders","28":"tag-miami","29":"tag-micah-mcfadden","30":"tag-monroe-freeling","31":"tag-new-york-giants","32":"tag-new-york-jets","33":"tag-nfl","34":"tag-nick-bromberg","35":"tag-offensive-lineman","36":"tag-rueben-bain-jr","37":"tag-sonny-styles","38":"tag-sports","39":"tag-tennessee","40":"tag-the-cardinals","41":"tag-the-nfl-draft","42":"tag-travis-hunter","43":"tag-tremaine-edmunds","44":"tag-ty-simpson"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}