{"id":628163,"date":"2026-04-24T16:06:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T16:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/628163\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T16:06:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T16:06:09","slug":"something-has-changed-in-australia-the-voters-of-farrer-may-tell-us-what-and-how-much-farrer-byelection-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/628163\/","title":{"rendered":"Something has changed in Australia. The voters of Farrer may tell us what, and how much | Farrer byelection 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">On the main strip of Holbrook, Marcia and Chris Wright are having an afternoon beer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The unassuming town sits almost halfway between Sydney and Melbourne, hundreds of kilometres down or up the Hume Highway.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The quintessential Riverina town \u2013 best known for its on-land submarine, which cost $100,000 in the mid-1990s \u2013 is one of many in the region where Pauline Hanson\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/one-nation\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">One Nation<\/a> is looking for support in the Farrer byelection on 9 May.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Marcia and Chris, who turned 74 and 80 respectively in April, are from the foothills of Woomargama, a 20-minute drive down the road. They have always voted Labor, including at last year\u2019s federal election.<\/p>\n<p>Retirees Marcia and Christopher Wright are among many in the electorate wanting alternative representation to the major parties.  Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But something has changed in the past 12 months. Marcia says people aren\u2019t joining them at the pub as often for their afternoon schooner \u2013 which has cost them $9 each \u2013 preferring to stay home and save money.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIt\u2019s just gone up so much; you\u2019re not getting as much as what you used to,\u201d Marcia says, looking at her half-empty glass of beer. It\u2019s also true of her weekly shopping bill.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIt\u2019s just a joke. Country people like to come and have a drink \u2026 but people aren\u2019t going out as much as they used to.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Like others Guardian Australia spoke to in the electorate, the retirees are fed up with the major parties and looking for someone else to represent Farrer.<\/p>\n<p><a data-name=\"placeholder\" href=\"https:\/\/interactive.guim.co.uk\/embed\/iframes\/2025\/04\/new-seat-embeds\/farrer\/index.html\" class=\"dcr-1eupayo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Farrer seat graphic<\/a>Coalition \u2018don\u2019t have a voice here any more\u2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">On paper, Farrer is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/coalition\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Coalition<\/a> heartland \u2013 the electorate has always voted for a National or Liberal since it was established in 1949.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But following <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/feb\/13\/sussan-ley-to-quit-politics-byelection-liberal-party-leadership-spill\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sussan Ley\u2019s resignation in February<\/a> after 25 years as its MP, the rural south-western NSW seat is at the centre of an unorthodox political battle.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The frontrunners are like chalk and cheese. But more importantly, neither is from one of the major parties.<\/p>\n<p>David Farley, the One Nation candidate for Farrer, has a background advocating for water security. Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">There\u2019s David Farley, a local agribusiness consultant, who is selling One Nation\u2019s message to farmers, small business owners and disaffected Coalition supporters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The 69-year-old was once a Nationals member but has since changed his allegiance to One Nation because it has more \u201cpolitical courage and political tenacity\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/view-from-the-hill-its-a-chilly-campaign-for-matt-canavan-in-farrer-280583#:~:text=A%20uComms%20poll,on%20respondents%E2%80%99%20preferences.\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">limited polling carried out in the seat<\/a> suggests his main opponent is the independent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/apr\/20\/farrer-byelection-michelle-milthorpe-independent-profile-one-nation\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Michelle Milthorpe<\/a> \u2013 a 47-year-old teacher, backed by the Voices of Farrer and partly funded by Climate 200, who shaved Ley\u2019s lead down to 6.2% at the federal election last May.<\/p>\n<p>Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe is pushing for a royal commission into water management across the Murray-Darling basin. Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Trailing behind are the Coalition\u2019s candidates \u2013 local Liberal councillor Raissa Butkowski and the Nationals\u2019 army veteran Brad Robertson.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">A host of minor party candidates, including the Greens\u2019 Richard Hendrie, and independents are unlikely to make a dent in the final result.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The field is packed but in a rarity for modern Australian political history, neither of the major parties is expected to win. Labor has decided not to run.<\/p>\n<p><a data-link-name=\"standard link button Primary\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-ignore=\"global-link-styling\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/email-newsletters?CMP=copyembed&amp;CMP=emailbutton\" class=\"dcr-svb9qg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201c[The Coalition] haven\u2019t got a voice here any more,\u201d says 66-year-old Deniliquin shop owner Jennifer Pate, who has long voted for either a Nationals or Liberal candidate but now wants to give One Nation a go.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThe farmers and all that don\u2019t stand by them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A seat divided<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Four hundred metres from where Marcia and Chris are finishing their schooners, Farley is soon to hold a meet-and-greet at the town\u2019s other pub.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It\u2019s 4.30pm, and there\u2019s little activity in the small town. Despite the buzz about the byelection within Canberra\u2019s bubble, there\u2019s not a corflute in sight.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Marcia blames the federal government for the tougher times. The 74-year-old is no fan of the prime minister or Labor\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n<p>The Holbrook Hotel. Locals say costs are going up in the area.  Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI don\u2019t think it goes down to the man. It\u2019s just their policies,\u201d she says. \u201cThis green thing [climate change] \u2026 Yeah, we\u2019re not with it. Are they going to put a windfarm here somewhere?\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Marcia and Chris say they\u2019ll be voting for One Nation. The main reason? What Hanson is saying about immigration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Marcia says she\u2019s seen too much homelessness on the streets of Albury, the nearest major town, and wants Australia to solve the crisis before supporting more immigration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Further up the main road, and across from where the One Nation event will be held, is Jess Russell, a 32-year-old veterinarian who\u2019s just finished her grocery shopping.<\/p>\n<p>One Nation has gained popularity in the electorate through its opposition to immigration, bureaucratic corruption and renewable energy. Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">She says she\u2019s backing Milthorpe because she\u2019s \u201cnot quite as right wing as everyone else\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The redevelopment of the nearby struggling Albury hospital is her biggest concern.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Like many other voters Guardian Australia spoke to, Russell wants to see a new hospital built that can support the growing population.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But she is also worried about raising her two young children in polarising times, pointing to the politicisation of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/ng-interactive\/2024\/jul\/29\/abortion-laws-bans-by-state\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">women\u2019s health care in the US<\/a> as an example.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI just stay away from anything super right leaning, because it\u2019s just not where Australia should be heading,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">As the afternoon turns to early evening, a slow trickle of people enters the Holbrook Hotel\u2019s beer garden. The venue fills with about 40 people by 6.30pm, mostly older couples, One Nation faithful and some younger families.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Farley arrives late, but his confidence in discussing water policy, due in part to his decades working in the industry, quickly commands the audience.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The One Nation candidate is most convincing when he speaks about his own experience. Farley was once the Australian Agricultural Company\u2019s chief executive and spent decades working in agricultural industries, including cotton.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But it\u2019s the One Nation talking points \u2013 opposition to immigration, bureaucratic corruption and renewable energy \u2013 that get the crowd most enthused.<\/p>\n<p>\u2018We can\u2019t lose the water\u2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Before Farley\u2019s bid for a seat his most public work involved being the chair of Speak Up 4 Water \u2013 a local advocacy group for water security, concerned about how water buy-backs and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.speakup4water.com\/post\/why-are-we-ignoring-impacts-of-climate-change\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">climate change could affect<\/a> the region\u2019s ability to produce food.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Climate change science may be at odds with some of Farley\u2019s potential future colleagues, but water buy-backs are a hot topic for many farmers in the region.<\/p>\n<p>Grain storage silos along the Riverina Highway near Albury.  Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201c[Australia is] a land of drought and flooding rains,\u201d Farley tells Guardian Australia. \u201cWe\u2019ve weakened our drought resilience. We\u2019ve weakened our flood resilience with the policies we\u2019ve got at the moment. We\u2019ve also weakened our food-growing ability.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Milthorpe agrees water buy-backs are an issue but is pushing for a royal commission into water management across the Murray-Darling basin to get answers that a government review might not.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe need to realise that our farmers and productive land are also part of that wetland environment, so separating them completely is just not working,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe need a more integrated approach, using lived experience from those who have been doing this for a long time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In Albury, the Liberals\u2019 Butkowski says a more urgent response is needed \u2013 one a royal commission can\u2019t achieve.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The community lawyer turned councillor says millions spent on non binding royal commission recommendations would be better used improving water catchment infrastructure and demanding greater transparency from the federal water authority.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThe buy-backs are killing our regional communities, and they need to stop,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Despite hoping to succeed Ley, Butkowski says she\u2019s not \u201cSussan\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Sheep graze in a paddock in Gerogery, a small town in NSW near the Victorian border. Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Butkowski, as a relative unknown in the huge rural electorate, has a lot of catching up to do, in addition to convincing disillusioned Liberal voters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">One of those people is Jennifer from Deniliquin, who is sympathetic to the Liberals but thinks One Nation will better represent Farrer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Deniliquin, best known as the home of the annual ute muster festival, sits along the Murray River and is surrounded by water-intensive industries such as cotton and dairy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Jennifer and her husband, Wayne, say they supported Ley because they \u201cdidn\u2019t have much choice\u201d as they were traditionally Nationals voters (the Coalition parties generally agree not to run against a sitting member, but this time both parties have fielded a candidate). Now she says \u201ca lot of us will go and try One Nation\u201d because of the water buy-back issues.<\/p>\n<p>Jennifer Pate in Deniliquin says she is impressed by Pauline Hanson\u2019s direct manner.  Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe\u2019re classed as a food bowl here, this whole great area, and we can\u2019t lose the water,\u201d she says. \u201cWe lose the water? The town dies. It becomes a ghost town.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Jennifer says she doesn\u2019t know much about Farley but she likes Hanson\u2019s \u201cbluntness\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cShe speaks her mind, and I like a person who speaks their mind.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">She says she doesn\u2019t know the Nationals candidate, Brad Robertson.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Jennifer believes Milthorpe is a good spokesperson for the region but wouldn\u2019t have the same sway as a member of One Nation.<\/p>\n<p>Growing demographics<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">For farmers and those relying on irrigators, the water question is about food security.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But for others, like the Greens candidate, Richard Hendrie, it\u2019s just as much about the environment.<\/p>\n<p>Richard Hendrie, the Greens candidate for  Farrer, walks his assistance dog, Havoc, along the Murray River in Albury.   Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Hendrie, a veteran and mental health advocate, is one of the few who believes that without more buy-backs there will be no water, let alone food security, in the region.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThe idea that water has to be treated as a commodity, or something that you make a profit out of, or something that you treat as an investment, has to end,\u201d Hendrie says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI\u2019m actually for buy-backs. It\u2019s the cheapest, most direct way of ensuring river health.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cIf you don\u2019t have a healthy Murray-Darling Basin, you\u2019re not going to have healthy farms or healthy farming communities.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In one of Albury\u2019s main streets, Renae Larkin, 27, and Isaac Campbell, 25, are walking their two dogs.<\/p>\n<p>The Murray River in Albury.  The government\u2019s plan for the Murray-Darling Basin is a hot topic in the region.  Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The young couple came to Albury as students from Griffith, also in Farrer, and represent a growing demographic in the region.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Renae says the environment and housing affordability are their main concerns. A One Nation member for Farrer would leave her \u201cmortified\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI don\u2019t think it represents my beliefs at all,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Both suggest they\u2019ll vote for the Greens.<\/p>\n<p>Changing values<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">One Nation\u2019s rise in the last 12 months has coincided with \u2013 or potentially influenced \u2013 an increased focus on immigration levels for the Coalition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Butkowski, herself the daughter of a migrant, won\u2019t provide a figure but says the Liberals support a \u201cfirm but fair\u201d cut.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Milthorpe has argued immigration is essential to filling workplace shortages in healthcare and hospitality in the region, pushing for \u201cplace-based\u201d regional and rural immigration.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But in recent months, the conversation has turned to the identity of potential migrants.<\/p>\n<p>Albury seen from the Eastern Hill lookout. Housing affordability is a concern for young people in the regional city. Photograph: Ellen Smith\/The Guardian<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Hanson suggested in February Muslim immigration halt altogether, after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2026\/mar\/02\/pauline-hanson-expected-censure-motion-senate-australian-muslim-comments-ntwnfb\" data-link-name=\"in body link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">questioning whether there were any \u201cgood Muslims\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Farley has tried to qualify those comments, suggesting immigration should be selective but not arbitrarily curbed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">He argues for \u201cassimilation\u201d of immigrants into \u201cAustralian culture\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Asked to define what that is, Farley says Australia is an accepting \u201claconic, egalitarian society\u201d of \u201cfriendship and matesmanship\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cWe can\u2019t have people coming into Australia and trying to change Australia,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">If One Nation wins on 9 May, many will be left wondering how much it has already changed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On the main strip of Holbrook, Marcia and Chris Wright are having an afternoon beer. The unassuming town&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":628164,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[64,63,44],"class_list":["post-628163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628163","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=628163"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628163\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/628164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=628163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=628163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=628163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}