Prosecutors allege the soldier \u2014 who took part in the January operation \u2014 turned a modest wager into more than $US400,000 ($560,000) on the prediction platform Polymarket.<\/p>\n
US soldier made $560k on Maduro removal bets<\/a><\/p>\n In the weeks leading up to Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro’s January 3 capture, Gannon Ken Van Dyke used sensitive classified information to make wagers on prediction market Polymarket.<\/p>\n The New York-based company, which counts Donald Trump Jr among its investors, says it flagged the suspicious trades and alerted authorities, insisting insider trading has “no place” on its platform.<\/p>\n But the case is fuelling bigger questions about prediction markets \u2014 fast-growing platforms where users can bet on the outcome of everything from sports and elections to crypto and armed conflicts.<\/p>\n Recent wagers tied to geopolitical flashpoints, including the fate of the US\u2013Israel war against Iran, have only intensified scrutiny.<\/p>\n Last month, researchers at Harvard University estimated that $US143 million in profits<\/a> on Polymarket may have come from users with insider knowledge \u2014 based on public blockchain data tracking bets on events ranging from Taylor Swift’s engagement to last year’s Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the Trump business behind Truth Social is also planning its own prediction market, Truth Predict<\/a>.<\/p>\n While banned in Australia, these platforms operate in a legal grey zone in the US \u2014 caught somewhere between finance and gambling \u2014 and now face mounting pressure in Washington over how, or whether, they should be regulated.<\/p>\n Here’s what we know about the murky world of speculative, 24\/7 transactions now filling the internet.<\/p>\n What are prediction markets?<\/p>\n Prediction markets let users trade on the likelihood of future events, and the scope of topics is vast.<\/p>\n On Polymarket there’s even a category devoted to the US president’s decisions, including when Donald Trump might lift the Strait of Hormuz blockade or even the colour of his tie on a given day.<\/p>\n Instead of traditional bets, users buy “event contracts”, usually framed as a Yes or No question.<\/p>\n The price sits between $0 and $1, effectively reflecting the market’s view of the probability. A contract trading at 70 cents, for example, suggests a 70 per cent chance the event will happen.<\/p>\n The Polymarket prediction platform allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, often framed as Yes or No questions. (Supplied: Polymarket)<\/p>\n Users can hold the contract until the outcome is known, or trade in and out as the odds change over time.<\/p>\n Proponents of prediction markets argue putting money on the line leads to more accurate forecasts.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, critics warn it can just as easily reward guesswork \u2014 or worse, privileged information.<\/p>\n Why this case matters<\/p>\n The Maduro case marks the first time the US Justice Department has brought insider trading charges involving a prediction market platform.<\/p>\n And it has amplified concerns that people with inside knowledge could exploit these markets.<\/p>\n There have already been signs of suspiciously well-timed bets on geopolitical events.<\/p>\n Kalshi is another major player in the prediction market industry. (AP Photo: Erin Hooley)<\/p>\n Earlier this month, the Associated Press reported<\/a> that a cluster of new accounts on Polymarket placed large wagers on a US\u2013Iran ceasefire in the hours \u2014 even minutes \u2014 before Donald Trump announced one.<\/p>\n In the lead-up to the outbreak of the Iran war in February, another account reportedly made about $US550,000 betting the US would strike Iran and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be removed from office.<\/p>\n “What is the statistical likelihood of anyone other than an insider trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement?” Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres said in an AP interview.<\/p>\n “There are two answers: God, or an insider trader. And something tells me that God is not placing bets around Donald Trump’s posts on Truth Social.”<\/p>\n Meanwhile, rival platform Kalshi last week fined and suspended three congressional candidates<\/a> for wagering on their own elections.<\/p>\n Who is placing these bets is often unclear. While platforms verify users behind the scenes, traders typically operate under pseudonyms.<\/p>\n That lack of transparency, combined with the speed and scale of trading, has regulators on edge.<\/p>\n A fast-growing, lightly regulated space<\/p>\n Prediction markets sit in a legal grey area in the US.<\/p>\n Because they’re structured as financial “event contracts”, they fall under federal oversight \u2014 rather than by individual states, as with traditional gambling.<\/p>\n That’s helped fuel rapid growth, with platforms expanding into politics, sport and global events.<\/p>\n Major players include Polymarket and Kalshi, alongside new entrants backed by sports betting companies and crypto firms.<\/p>\n Should gambling on war be allowed?<\/a><\/p>\n Gambling experts and US lawmakers raise concerns about online betting ethics and whether insider information is helping profiteers cash in on war.<\/p>\n In Australia, regulators have taken a harder line.<\/p>\n The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) deems platforms like Polymarket to be illegal, unlicensed gambling services<\/a>.<\/p>\n An ACMA investigation found nearly 1.9 million visits to the platform came from Australia in a six-month period beginning in November 2024.<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2f9e953b76cdbfa617f1a6b41bf422a9.jpeg\")
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