![\"\"](\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Screenshot-2026-04-28-at-11.01.25-am-copy.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nBetween the first and second years of the reformed scheme, a fire at the Grosvenor underground coal mine near Moranbah reduced emissions by more than twice the aggregate emissions reduction seen at ongoing facilities.<\/p>\n
Even the exceptionally small emissions reductions seen at safeguard facilities so far will not continue into later years. This may be the last inter-annual emissions reduction we see from safeguard facilities in the 2020<\/p>\n
In late 2025, the first gas from Santos\u2019s Barossa gas field was sent to the Darwin LNG terminal. Assuming that the operator can restrain emissions to the levels provided in its approval documents, at full production combined emissions will reach more than 4 million tonnes of greenhouse gas per year. <\/p>\n
This is more than eight times the size of the 500,000 tonne reduction seen across ongoing safeguard facilities between the first two years.<\/p>\n
While it is one of the larger new projects expected to come online, Barossa is just one of around 50 new coal and gas projects that are likely to begin production over the next decade. <\/p>\n Most of these new projects will avoid the more onerous requirements that apply to new safeguard facilities, sometimes via contrived means.<\/p>\n Rather than driving emissions reductions, the Safeguard Mechanism has driven extraordinary, increased and higher than anticipated demand for offset units. These have primarily come from methods with on-going, significant and unresolved integrity issues<\/p>\n Demand for credits from human-induced regeneration, landfill gas and avoided deforestation offset methods \u2013 each of which is subject to significant and as-yet-unaddressed integrity complaints \u2013 has increased between years. <\/p>\n These methods provided more than 80% of all ACCUs surrendered under the scheme in the second post-reform year. Between the first and second years, demand for offset units of all types increased by 50%.<\/p>\n While it is impossible to reliably quantify the total impact of these integrity issues, plausibly more than half of all offset credits issued under these methods provide low- to zero verifiable environmental benefit. <\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n