{"id":636667,"date":"2026-04-28T17:42:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T17:42:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/636667\/"},"modified":"2026-04-28T17:42:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T17:42:15","slug":"why-has-scoring-taken-a-nosedive-in-the-2026-nba-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/636667\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Has Scoring Taken a Nosedive in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?"},"content":{"rendered":"

NBA<\/a>NBA<\/a>Plus, the Pistons are on the ropes, LeBron stands alone, and more trends that jump out from the chaos of the first round\"\"Getty Images\/Ringer illustration\"\"<\/a>By Kirk Goldsberry<\/a>April 28, 3:21 pm UTC \u2022 7 min<\/p>\n

The 2026 NBA playoffs are 10 days old, and the first round is all over the place. The top seed in the East is on the ropes, and three other high seeds have found themselves in knockdown, drag-out battles. As the first round hits the homestretch, here are the biggest leaguewide trends and story lines that are jumping out to me.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Offense Has Taken a Nosedive<\/p>\n

We just watched the highest-scoring regular season since 1969-70, but suddenly nobody can score the ball. Teams have gone from scoring an average of 115.6 points per game in the regular season down to 106.8 points per game so far in Round 1 of the playoffs. Now, I know what you\u2019re thinking\u2014\u201cThis is the playoffs, it\u2019s always like this\u201d\u2014and, well, while that\u2019s kind of true, it\u2019s also not. The scoring drop-off this year is the biggest we\u2019ve seen in the modern era. Check it out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Those red lines seem to be getting longer and longer over time, meaning that the disconnect between our 82-game marathon and our two-month postseason sprint is also widening. Watching Orlando beat Detroit 94-88 on Monday night felt like seeing Ben Wallace and Tayshaun Prince smother Kobe Bryant in the 2004 Finals, a series so brutal that the NBA curbed hand-checking rules immediately afterward and ended up changing the league forever.<\/p>\n

On the chart above, check out the scoring increase that started in 2005.<\/p>\n

On Monday, Orlando won even though it made only 32.6 percent of its shots. On Sunday, Toronto beat Cleveland 93-89, despite shooting 32.0 percent from the floor.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So what is happening? Well, we haven\u2019t been transported back to 2004. I can tell because I\u2019ve logged seven hours of screen time on my phone already today. But in the playoffs, pace is down, transition offense is way down, and games are simply slower. We\u2019re also seeing a meaningful decline in 3-pointers. All told, teams are getting fewer shots per game and making a smaller share of them.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But part of this story has more to do with the regular season and the unprecedented amount of tanking we just endured. There were more bad defenses than ever this year, which elevated the value of an average possession to artificial levels. But those teams are all in Canc\u00fan now, and nobody gets to play the Wizards or Kings in May.\u00a0<\/p>\n

NBA Offensive Rating in the Regular Season vs. PlayoffsSeasonRegular SeasonPlayoffsDifference2025-26115.7111.0\u22124.72024-25114.5113.0\u22121.52023-24115.3113.5\u22121.82022-23114.8113.5\u22121.32021-22112.0111.2\u22120.8<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the thing: The great offensive depression is affecting some teams more than others, and no teams have been dragged down more than Denver and Detroit, two squads that were favored to advance out of Round 1 but are now on the verge of elimination.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"The Detroit Pistons\u2019 Jump-Shooting Dilemma\u00a0<\/p>\n

No team epitomizes the great scoring drop-off more than the top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons won 60 games this season because they were great on both ends of the court, pairing the league\u2019s second-ranked defense with its ninth-ranked offense. But that competent offense has simply disappeared against Orlando, which is the biggest reason Detroit is on the brink right now.<\/p>\n

The Pistons currently rank 16th (that\u2019s last) in these playoffs in offensive rating. Woof. Their offense is producing 17 fewer points per 100 possessions in Round 1 than in the regular season\u2014and it may prove to be this team\u2019s fatal flaw.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The woes have been particularly obvious from beyond the arc. Among all 16 playoff teams, Detroit currently ranks last in 3-point production; it ranks last in 3-point percentage and 14th in 3-point volume. In layman\u2019s terms, the Pistons don\u2019t shoot many 3s, and when they do, they don\u2019t make them. Last night, in a six-point defeat, they shot 6-of-30 from downtown.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to see this team advancing very far when it\u2019s yielding only 27 points per game on average from beyond the arc, while teams like Boston are more than doubling that figure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We used to wonder whether a jump-shooting team would ever win a title. Then the Warriors put those questions to bed. Ten years later, the question going forward is whether a poor shooting team will ever win a championship. The early results from this year\u2019s Detroit squad might be all the answer we need.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rudy Gobert Is Stifling the Denver Nuggets<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the defining stat of the Wolves-Nuggets series. Nikola Jokic has made only 22-of-54 when guarded by Rudy Gobert this series. In the second halves, it\u2019s been even crazier\u2014Jokic has now gone a stunning 8-of-30 against Gobert in the third and fourth quarters of these games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Minnesota\u2019s ability to slow down the NBA\u2019s best offense thus far in this series has everything to do with Gobert\u2019s ability to slow down the best offensive player in the world, while almost exclusively guarding him in single coverage.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, injuries to Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo have damaged the Wolves\u2019 chances of advancing, and the Nuggets cruised to a double-digit win in Game 5. But Gobert\u2019s master class in defending Jokic should not be forgotten, regardless of how the series plays out. He has been one of the top two French defenders in these playoffs, and we’ll get to the other Stifle Tower later on.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

LeBron James shoots during Game 3 against the Rockets<\/p>\n

Adam Pantozzi\/NBAE via Getty ImagesThe NBA\u2019s Only 200-Hour Man<\/p>\n

Rockets vs. Lakers features two of the greatest players ever\u2014and two of the league\u2019s most experienced postseason legends. Kevin Durant ranks second among all active players in total minutes of playoff action, with a staggering 6,934 minutes over his 18-year career. But here is the crazy part. After Game 4 of this first-round series, James has now tallied an absurd 12,218 total playoff minutes. That\u2019s 200 frickin\u2019 hours, man.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s 8.5 days of playoff action.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not normal. We\u2019ve run out of adjectives to describe LeBron\u2019s ridiculous career, so let\u2019s look at a chart instead.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Holy King James. This plot shows the all-time NBA leaders in playoff minutes and playoff points. As you can see, James is in his own galaxy, far away from the constellation of Hall of Famers. He isn\u2019t just leaving his legendary contemporaries in the dust\u2014he\u2019s also making the postseason totals of legends like Jordan, Kareem, and Duncan look downright normal.<\/p>\n

The kid from Akron has now accrued the most staggering postseason r\u00e9sum\u00e9 in NBA history\u2014and before the ring counters get in here and start yelling about how those players won more titles, just consider these tidbits:<\/p>\n

James has now won 187 total playoff games. That\u2019s more playoff wins than 21 NBA franchises have.\u00a0He\u2019s 41-14 in playoff series.He has won 79 percent of his closeout games, the highest mark in NBA history among players with a minimum of 25 games.His career playoff averages of 28.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.2 assists are better than his regular-season splits, and they\u2019re sustained over the equivalent of more than three full 82-game seasons, against playoff defenses and coaching staffs laser focused on slowing him down.\u00a0He\u2019s got more postseason assists than John Stockton and more postseason rebounds than Karl Malone.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But James isn\u2019t really thinking about this right now. He\u2019s turning back the clock, carrying the Lakers to a 3-1 lead over the Rockets, and trying to bide some time so his banged-up colleagues Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves can get back on the floor. If the Lakers can win one more game against Houston this week, LeBron and the Lakers will face the Thunder in Round 2, and James will just keep adding to his already incomparable playoff r\u00e9sum\u00e9.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Wemby Effect Hits the Playoffs<\/p>\n

Victor Wembanyama\u2019s playoff debut has been slowed\u2014but not derailed\u2014by the concussion he suffered in Game 2 of the Spurs\u2019 first-round series against the Trail Blazers. But after missing Game 3 in Portland, Wemby\u2019s back in the fold, and a few defensive numbers prove that the young Frenchman is already one of the most impactful players in the postseason.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yes, he leads the postseason in blocks per game, which is impressive, but Wemby\u2019s defensive impacts go far beyond that simple counting metric.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In his 79 minutes of action, the Spurs have had a ridiculous 95.8 defensive rating. For context, the Thunder\u2019s league-best mark in that metric was 106.5 during the regular season. Of course, the Blazers don\u2019t exactly have the league\u2019s most dynamic offense, but that doesn\u2019t make these numbers any less impressive, especially when we look at a few paint stats that capture the Wemby effect in a nutshell.\u00a0<\/p>\n

When Wembanyama is off the floor, the Blazers have won the paint battle, outscoring San Antonio 45.9 to 43.3 points per 100 possessions in the lane.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But with Wemby in the game, the Spurs score 49.1 paint points per 100, while Portland manages only a measly 36.8.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a familiar concept for Spurs fans. The team\u2019s legendary run began when David Robinson controlled this neighborhood. Then Mr. Robinson teamed up with Tim Duncan, launching a dynastic run that featured some of the most dominant rim protection the NBA has ever seen. I\u2019m not sure how to say d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu in French, but this updated version of Spurs dominance seems awfully familiar.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The East Is Breaking for Boston<\/p>\n

Before the playoffs began, we explored what historical trends<\/a> can teach us about this year\u2019s crop of playoff teams. The takeaway was simple: OKC, Boston, and San Antonio are in a tier above everyone else. Nothing we\u2019ve seen over the past 10 days has changed that, especially in the East, where only one team has breezed through Round 1 so far.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The East is breaking in Boston\u2019s favor. Detroit is struggling. New York and Cleveland are mired in first-round fights. Meanwhile, Boston is torching Philly with a brutal blend of rebounding and long-range shooting. The Celtics rank first in rebounding share this postseason, thanks in large part to their leading rebounder\u2014Jayson freaking Tatum\u2014who is averaging more than nine boards a game to go with his nine assists and 25 points per game. Sheesh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Look for Boston to put the Sixers away on Tuesday night and then put their feet up and await the winner of Hawks-Knicks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Kirk Goldsberry<\/p>\n

<\/a>Kirk Goldsberry is the New York Times\u2013bestselling author of \u2018Sprawlball.\u2019 He previously served as the vice president of strategic research for the San Antonio Spurs and as the lead analyst of Team USA Basketball. He\u2019s also the executive director of the Business of Sports Institute at the University of Texas. He lives in Austin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NBANBAPlus, the Pistons are on the ropes, LeBron stands alone, and more trends that jump out from the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":636668,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[557],"tags":[64,63,590,85],"class_list":["post-636667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nba","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/636667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=636667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/636667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/636668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=636667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=636667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=636667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}