{"id":640946,"date":"2026-04-30T16:53:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T16:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/640946\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T16:53:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T16:53:14","slug":"the-numbers-that-show-the-thursday-night-draw-should-never-have-been-close","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/640946\/","title":{"rendered":"The numbers that show the Thursday night draw should never have been close"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Marc McGowan\" data-testid=\"author-avatar-image\" height=\"64\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1fd9e8feb443a3c0e7ff1305e00989af6ff0ed64.png\"  width=\"64\" class=\"sc-9a01536c-0 libeSR\"\/>Save<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-d1b14060-4 JmUoF\">You have reached your maximum number of saved items.<\/p>\n<p>Remove items from your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/goodfood\/saved\" class=\"sc-3f16ee48-12 sc-d1b14060-2 jyLmZI iQLtAb\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">saved list<\/a> to add more.<\/p>\n<p>AAA<\/p>\n<p>It was the Thursday night thriller that really shouldn\u2019t have been.<\/p>\n<p>An out-matched Collingwood team on paper had little right to be competitive with Hawthorn, let alone beat them \u2013 but almost did so any way despite losing many of the key metrics in a landslide.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Dylan Moore of the Hawks celebrates after he kicked a goal on the siren for the match to end in a draw.\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/4dbd51bf14b885718bc15b0da49b697474cc904e.jpeg\"  class=\"sc-d34e428-1 ldCIuB\"\/>Dylan Moore of the Hawks celebrates after he kicked a goal on the siren for the match to end in a draw.Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Coach Craig McRae even assumed that no one gave his team a chance.<\/p>\n<p>They led for most of the night in front of 76,632 fans at the MCG, only for Pies captain Darcy Moore to drop a mark he would normally swallow before conceding a sloppy high free kick to Dylan Moore, who steered through a goal after the siren <a class=\"inline-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/sport\/afl\/afl-round-eight-live-collingwood-take-on-hawthorn-in-mcg-blockbuster-20260430-p5zsdw.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">to leave the sides to settle for a draw<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>That accurate Moore finish, from inside 30 metres, was a rare one for the Hawks, who amassed more behinds (15) than goals (13) as Collingwood kicked 15.3 to make up for being beaten up in clearance and at the contest.<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell called it an \u201coutlier\u201d performance, given his players have typically been potent with their opportunities this season.<\/p>\n<p>The 15th of those behinds was crucial \u2013 a miss off Massimo D\u2019Ambrosio\u2019s left boot that sliced the Magpies\u2019 lead to six points with about 40 seconds left. A Tom Barrass mark moments later won the Sherrin back for the Hawks, to set in motion a dramatic climax.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Massimo D\u2019Ambrosio faces the Pies.\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/3545da78e89825aecb3c5c2ef5712cac99f27201.jpeg\"  class=\"sc-d34e428-1 ldCIuB\"\/>Massimo D\u2019Ambrosio faces the Pies.Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI said to the boys, \u2018We didn\u2019t win tonight, but we definitely didn\u2019t lose\u2019,\u201d McRae said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think it\u2019s important to acknowledge that we played some really good footy against arguably the best team in the competition \u2026 we\u2019re definitely [glass] half full, and top me up because we\u2019ve got a bit more coming.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The result was a statistical improbability.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Craig McRae after Thursday night\u2019s draw.\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1a78fd76cca6d9865c1fbdb994a43c4a7cb63b68.jpeg\"  class=\"sc-d34e428-1 ldCIuB\"\/>Craig McRae after Thursday night\u2019s draw.Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>The Magpies had 75 fewer disposals, and trailed woefully in inside 50s (34-62), clearances (23-39, including 5-19 out of the centre) and contested possessions (105-134), yet repeatedly made the most of their scoring chances.<\/p>\n<p>Take the last quarter: Hawk Josh Weddle fluffed a set shot from barely 20 metres out, directly in front, only for Jamie Elliott to drill a superb goal at the other end from right on the 50-metre arc after he ran as close to the mark as possible to ensure he made the distance.<\/p>\n<p>Related Article<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/sport\/afl\/afl-round-eight-live-collingwood-take-on-hawthorn-in-mcg-blockbuster-20260430-p5zsdw.html\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"sc-cba76dee-0 hdiTqm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The Pies are only five points ahead at halftime, as a resurgent Hawthorn looms\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1777567993_819_2fefb86b0101c0906f8cc1a95d25fbcb2df4bbfb.jpeg\"  class=\"sc-d34e428-1 ioInpc\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The opening stages of the second half also encapsulated a strange night of football.<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn failed to score from eight consecutive inside 50s to begin the third term before ruthlessly efficient Collingwood kicked back-to-back goals via Elliott and Will Hayes from their two chances that followed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t know how to give a name to the emotion \u2013 it was certainly odd,\u201d Mitchell said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a part of me that thinks you look at the numbers, and you\u2019re like, \u2018How do we come away with only two points?\u2019, and then with two minutes to go, [you think], \u2018How did we get two points?\u2019. I\u2019m unsure how to feel. To me, that\u2019s one of the great beauties of sport.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There was controversy in the last few minutes, too.<\/p>\n<p>A 50-metre penalty against Hawk Cam Mackenzie gifted Steele Sidebottom a crucial goal, not long after Nick Watson was somehow not rewarded for a chase-down tackle on Billy Frampton in Hawthorn\u2019s attacking 50.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Jamie Elliott of the Magpies celebrates after scoring a goal.\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/4ce75ebc805d74bb0d1ffdb1a2fbc8cabf63670e.jpeg\"  class=\"sc-d34e428-1 ldCIuB\"\/>Jamie Elliott of the Magpies celebrates after scoring a goal.Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Mitchell opted to sidestep offering his opinion on them, but Connor Macdonald, who starred with 28 disposals and three goals, was surprised that Watson did not receive a free kick.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI kicked it down there, and thought, \u2018How good is this? We just got a free kick; we might kick a goal here\u2019, but I guess the umpires didn\u2019t see it that way, and we had to quickly move on,\u201d Macdonald told The Age.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere was a lot going on, and it was another good experience for us. You\u2019ve just got to try and be calm in those situations. I think we did a good job to end up drawing it, but it\u2019s a weird feeling.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood champion Nick Daicos won a match-high 34 disposals playing under duress and Dan Houston was superb with 32 touches of his own, while Hawks co-captain Jai Newcombe gathered 28 disposals and won nine clearances to be best afield.<\/p>\n<p>Related Article<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/sport\/afl\/compromised-draft-why-ross-lyon-says-afl-changes-fail-20260430-p5zsms.html\" tabindex=\"-1\" class=\"sc-cba76dee-0 hdiTqm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Nik Cox in action for Essendon.\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/d2cddf6e4543498201a08006730c0905f5e879bc.jpeg\"  class=\"sc-d34e428-1 ioInpc\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Elliott finished with three goals, while Watson was box-office viewing, as usual.<\/p>\n<p>With one incredible burst of speed in the first half, Watson swooped on the loose ball, tapped it forward, gathered at pace, evaded a diving Jack Crisp\u2019s tackle attempt, and blasted through a goal from point-blank range. He also put on the afterburners, and was similarly opportunistic, to slot his second a quarter later.<\/p>\n<p>Then, with the three-quarter-time siren fast approaching, Watson created something from nothing along the boundary line to help Calsher Dear beat the buzzer and give the Hawks a two-point edge at the last break.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen he did that handball thing, just before three-quarter-time, I was like, \u2018Far out, I\u2019m glad he\u2019s playing on our team\u2019,\u201d Mitchell said of Watson. \u201cI don\u2019t know how you stop him.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood defender Harry Perryman\u2019s night ended late in the first half because of a hamstring injury, while Sidebottom (hand), Darcy Cameron (ankle), Elliott (back) and Daicos came off at different stages.<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn backman James Sicily also nursed a sore ankle in the last quarter, but Mitchell was optimistic he would be fit to make the trip west to face Fremantle next Thursday night.<\/p>\n<p>Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. <a class=\"inline-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/newsletter-signup?newsletter=real-footy&amp;utm_source=EditorialArticle&amp;utm_medium=ArticleText&amp;utm_campaign=Newsletters\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Save<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-d1b14060-4 JmUoF\">You have reached your maximum number of saved items.<\/p>\n<p>Remove items from your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theage.com.au\/goodfood\/saved\" class=\"sc-3f16ee48-12 sc-d1b14060-2 jyLmZI iQLtAb\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">saved list<\/a> to add more.<\/p>\n<p>From our partners<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Save You have reached your maximum number of saved items. Remove items from your saved list to add&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":640947,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-640946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/640946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=640946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/640946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/640947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=640946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=640946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=640946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}