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<\/p>\n Email Link<\/p>\n \n EJ Antoni, President Donald Trump\u2019s pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is no longer considering suspending the monthly jobs report \u2014 one of the most crucial and historic measurements of US economic activity \u2014 after proposing the unprecedented action during an interview that published Tuesday.\n <\/p>\n \n Antoni will continue to publish monthly jobs numbers if confirmed, Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore told CNN Tuesday. Moore said he discussed the issue with Antoni, who has since backed off the notion.\n <\/p>\n \n Antoni had previously told Fox News Digital that the monthly jobs report should be suspended in favor of quarterly data, claiming the report is unreliable and frequently revised.\n <\/p>\n \n In an interview with Fox News Digital<\/a> that was published Tuesday but took place August 4, a week before his nomination, Antoni said the BLS should publish only quarterly data until BLS can ensure its monthly jobs data is more accurate.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cUntil it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,\u201d he told Fox. \u201cMajor decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Moore, who recommended Antoni for the BLS commissioner role, told CNN\u2019s Danny Freeman on Tuesday that the nominee changed his mind.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cI think it\u2019s a bad idea to do that. In fact I\u2019ve talked to EJ about it and he\u2019s not going to do that. We need monthly numbers,\u201d Moore said. \u201cNow what he\u2019s talking about is we do a quarterly number that\u2019s much more accurate than the monthly one and he\u2019s saying maybe \u2014 but he\u2019s backed off that. We\u2019re going to continue to do monthly numbers.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier on Tuesday acknowledged Antoni\u2019s suggestion to suspend the monthly jobs report but said the Trump administration intended on continuing to issue jobs numbers every month.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cI believe that is the plan, and that\u2019s the hope, and that these monthly reports will be data that the American people can trust,\u201d Leavitt said at a press briefing Tuesday.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump fired<\/a> former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer after the July jobs report showed weak growth that month and included revisions for May and June that were historically large. Trump claimed, without evidence, the revisions constituted a \u201cscam\u201d and a vendetta against his presidency.\n <\/p>\n \n Antoni told Fox he disagrees with Trump, saying he doesn\u2019t believe the BLS intentionally manipulated the jobs data. But Antoni has criticized the BLS\u2019 approach to data collection<\/a>, noting that revisions to monthly jobs reports have been significantly larger since the pandemic. However, the May and June revisions were not unprecedented.\n <\/p>\n \n May\u2019s jobs total was revised lower to 19,000, down from an initial estimate of 139,000 \u2014 a total revision of 120,000 jobs. For the June jobs total, the BLS on Friday said the US economy added just 14,000 jobs, down from a preliminary estimate of 147,000 \u2014 a revision of 133,000 jobs.\n <\/p>\n \n The BLS tracks each month\u2019s revisions<\/a> dating back to 1979, but introduced a new probability-based sample design for revisions in 2003. Between 1979 and 2003, the average monthly revision was 61,000 jobs. Since 2003, the average monthly revision is only a slightly more accurate 51,000 jobs.\n <\/p>\n \n The BLS gathers troves of data from all corners of the economy and produces scores of reports tracking economic activity over varying timeframes.\n <\/p>\n \n Especially these days, the economy moves fast, and businesses, investors and policymakers crave immediate but also detailed and trustworthy information.\n <\/p>\n \n However, while high-frequency data like the monthly jobs report provides a more timely look at employment activity, it also comes with some trade-offs: The initial survey-drawn estimates are not as comprehensive other measurements, such as the BLS\u2019 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is compiled from quarterly tax reports submitted by businesses to their states. (But, that particular measurement, while more robust, is heavily lagged: On September 9, the BLS will release county-level QCEW data for the first quarter of 2025).\n <\/p>\n \n Even so, scrapping the monthly jobs report would leave many flying blind as to how the economy is faring on a monthly basis, said Augustine Faucher, chief economist of The PNC Financial Services Group.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWhen we look at the jobs report in context; including the revisions, when we look at the industry mix; when we look at what\u2019s going on with average hourly earnings and weekly hours and so forth, all of that is very helpful in gauging where the economy is going,\u201d Faucher told CNN Tuesday in a phone interview. \u201cI don\u2019t think the fact that we\u2019ve had revisions, and even if the ones we got in July were larger than average, I don\u2019t think that\u2019s justification for not releasing the data on a monthly basis.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n He added: \u201cThe solution there is to improve the data, not to stop releasing it.\u201d\n <\/p>\n Mandated by law<\/p>\n \n William Beach, who served as BLS Commissioner during Trump\u2019s first term, said methodology can be studied, analyzed and updated for a data series without suspending reports. During his term, the BLS made 31 of 37 recommended changes to the Consumer Price Index without suspending the heavily watched inflation report, he told CNN in an interview Tuesday.\n <\/p>\n \n Keeping the jobs report running is even more paramount, he said.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIf you shut [the jobs report] down, you would hear a howl around the world,\u201d Beach said, noting that the BLS\u2019 monthly Employment Situation report is one of seven principal federal economic indicators required by law. \u201cYou would have a lot of resistance.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n In the absence of a monthly jobs report, the Federal Reserve would be missing data to support one half of its dual mandate (price stability and full employment), which in turn would send shockwaves through financial markets and thoroughly disrupt businesses\u2019 abilities to plan.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cI mean, it just goes on and on, right?\u201d he said. \u201cYou can paint a portrait, it not necessarily would be true, but you could paint a portrait of significant economic dislocation just because you didn\u2019t have that report.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Economic data is frequently revised \u2014 especially as more comprehensive information becomes readily available \u2014 to provide a clearer, more accurate picture of the dynamics in play.\n <\/p>\n \n Measuring economic activity, has grown more challenging in recent years, because of the pandemic\u2019s seismic impact on global supply chains, US businesses and households and the lingering effects that still continue to this day. To adjust to these economy-shaking shifts, the BLS implemented several methodological changes<\/a> to help construct its seasonal adjustment models, which smooth out cyclical fluctuations in the economy.\n <\/p>\n \n Still, one of the most illustrative examples of ongoing revisions is the BLS\u2019 labor market data<\/a> and, specifically, the closely watched jobs report.\n <\/p>\n \n The numbers in the monthly employment reports (which have a rich history stretching back more than 100 years<\/a>) will change in the months (and years) to come.\n <\/p>\n \n Revisiting and refining are just the nature of data collection, statistics and research.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cRevisions are not a bug, they\u2019re a feature,\u201d Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, told CNN earlier this year.\n <\/p>\n \n When the market-moving jobs report (which is composed of two large surveys) is released, that initial estimate is often based on incomplete data and thus will be revised twice further in the two jobs reports that follow, as the BLS receives more information.\n <\/p>\n \n And in times of economic transitions<\/a>, revisions are usually more outsized in one way or other, said Beach, the former BLS commissioner.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWe have seen this pattern before of fairly large downward revisions when the economy is slowing, fairly large upward revisions when the economy is growing again,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n \n One part of the substantial downward revisions in May and June are likely due to small businesses responding late to the survey \u201cbecause they\u2019re just too busy trying to stay alive,\u201d he said. A larger part of the revision was because of seasonal adjustment factors that had to be changed because of a larger-than-typical drop-off in state and local education hiring, he added.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cI didn\u2019t see anything that would really alert me that there was an error or mistake,\u201d he said of the critiques made of the BLS\u2019 July jobs report tabulations. \u201cIf there was a shortcoming, it was that the BLS didn\u2019t immediately put the explanation of what they thought happened on the website.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n In addition to the surveying, the BLS also incorporates methodology to try to capture employment activity at new businesses and those that have closed. Even then, the monthly numbers aren\u2019t final and fully comprehensive.\n <\/p>\n \n Every year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts an annual benchmark revision by making a thorough review of the survey-based employment estimates from the monthly jobs report and reconciling those estimates with fuller employment counts measured by the QCEW program.\n <\/p>\n \n The first part of that process is due out on September 9, when the BLS will publish preliminary benchmark revisions. The final revisions is scheduled to be released in February 2026 alongside the January jobs report.\n <\/p>\n \n Federal economic data is considered the \u201cgold standard,\u201d because of its longstanding reliability, quality, comprehensiveness, history and transparency.\n <\/p>\n \n However, that critical statistical infrastructure has long been at risk of crumbling. Economists, statisticians and policymakers have sounded the alarm bells for years, stating that federal data is in a precarious state<\/a>, because of decreased funding, response rates and public trust.\n <\/p>\n \n Also, measuring economic activity, has grown more challenging in recent years, because of the pandemic\u2019s seismic impact on global supply chains, US businesses and households and the lingering effects that still continue to this day. For example, the BLS had to implement several methodological changes to help construct its seasonal adjustment models, which smooth out cyclical fluctuations in the economy.\n <\/p>\n \n Those warnings have grown even louder this year.\n <\/p>\n \n Trump, who criticized economic data when not in office, has continued to question the legitimacy of economic metrics during his second term. Additionally, his administration not only has shut down several data-heavy federal programs and websites, but also made funding and employment cuts at statistical agencies.\n <\/p>\n \n At the BLS, the most clear-cut example has been recent rductions in the price collections that feed into the Consumer Price Index, the most widely used inflation gauge that also is used to adjust Americans\u2019 payments (such as Social Security), set wages, and deflate other economic series to adjust for inflation.\n <\/p>\n \n Those reductions are likely to make the monthly CPI data more volatile and subject to revisions, economists say.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIf you\u2019re concerned about the quality of the data, then spend more on data collection efforts to try to improve the response rates for the surveys,\u201d PNC\u2019s Faucher said.\n <\/p>\n
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