The Maple Leafs hold the No. 5 pick in the 2026 NHL draft, but that could change via the draft lottery on Tuesday night.<\/p>\n
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Published May 01, 2026 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 6\u00a0hours ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 6 minute read<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n You can save this article by registering for free here<\/a>. Or sign-in<\/a> if you have an account.<\/p>\n One draft lottery, three Maple Leafs scenarios.<\/p>\n Advertisement 2<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY<\/p>\n Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account.Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on.Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists.Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.<\/p>\n SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account.Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on.Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists.Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists.Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword.<\/p>\n REGISTER \/ SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/p>\n THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.<\/p>\n Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authors<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n That\u2019s what it will boil down to on Tuesday night when the National Hockey League holds its annual awkwardly suspenseful live drawing of the lottery balls.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Each potential outcome for the Leafs, who currently own the fifth pick in the 2026 draft thanks to a 2025-26 season of woeful underachievement<\/a>, will have a distinct bearing on the team\u2019s future when the balls drop at the NHL Network\u2019s studio in Secaucus, NJ.<\/p>\n Move up to select first or second and the Leafs will have a choice of two wingers who have set themselves apart in his draft class \u2014 Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg.<\/p>\n We apologize, but this video has failed to load.<\/p>\n Play Video<\/p>\n Either would slot in nicely alongside captain Auston Matthews<\/a>. Franchise winger? You could say that. One way or another, the new front office \u2014 reportedly to be led by Mats Sundin up top and John Chayka as general manager<\/a> \u2014 would be handed a heck of a start.<\/p>\n Stay at No. 5 and a fine defenceman, perhaps one of Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels or Alberts Smits, will be among the potential choices. Each one is destined to be a top-pairing D-man in the NHL. And, if not, centre Caleb Malhotra would not be far off from providing strength down the middle.<\/p>\n Your Midday Sun<\/p>\n Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Advertisement 3<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Fall out of the top five and it\u2019s more misery for Leafs Nation and a larger stain on the resume of former Leafs GM Brad Treliving.<\/p>\n Not only does Boston already have centre Fraser Minten in the one-sided trade that sent defenceman Brandon Carlo to Toronto last year, the Bruins would get a shot at one of the players listed above with the sixth or seventh pick.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a good chance that the player picked by the Bruins, along with Minten, would be a pillar for the team for years.<\/p>\n A closer look at the scenarios:<\/p>\n MOVIN\u2019 ON UP<\/p>\n Plan the parade.<\/p>\n Take it easy, we\u2019re kidding.<\/p>\n There\u2019s no doubt, however, that the Leafs will get a significant boost if they move into the first or second spot in the draft order.<\/p>\n In basic terms, the Leafs will have an 8.5% chance to win the lottery and pick first<\/a>, and an 8.6% chance to get the second selection.<\/p>\n Either would be represent a terrific cap on a bad season in Toronto. The Leafs have picked first overall twice \u2014 in 2016 when they got Matthews and in 1985 when they chose Wendel Clark.<\/p>\n Advertisement 4<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n Matthews has the franchise record for goals and is the face of the organization; Clark remains one of, if not the most, popular player in team history after playing in 608 games during three stints in Toronto.<\/p>\n One of McKenna or Stenberg would provide an instant shot of optimism, an element that badly needs to be restored. If you\u2019re in the group that thinks this past year was a one-off for the Leafs and they will return to the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2027, that belief adds a lot more weight with a first or second pick overall.<\/p>\n A wrinkle in the Leafs\u2019 history would be ironed out if they move up to the second pick. The amateur draft first was held in 1963 and the Leafs, strangely enough, have never picked second overall.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a tiny chance, 0.3%, that the Leafs get the third pick. The Leafs can\u2019t move into the fourth pick under any circumstances.<\/p>\n STAY AT FIVE<\/p>\n As we mentioned, there will be a deep group of defencemen from which the Leafs could choose. Reid and Verhoeff shoot right, as does another top-rated defenceman, Daxon Rudolph, while Carels and Smits are left-handed shots.<\/p>\n Advertisement 5<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n As intriguing as Malhotra might be, the Leafs\u2019 biggest need is on the blue line. They could go a long way to fixing that with this pick, which they have a 24.5% chance of maintaining.<\/p>\n What we think we can safely declare is that the Leafs, unless they go way off the board and are proven wrong in the future, would get a good player at No. 5, one that makes an impact eventually.<\/p>\n We looked at the No. 5 picks since 2000 and, for the most part, it\u2019s a group that has been sharp.<\/p>\n Six players chosen fifth in that span \u2014 Thomas Vanek, Blake Wheeler, Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn and Nino Niederreiter \u2014 went on to play more than 1,000 NHL games. Others including Ryan Strome, Morgan Rielly, Elias Lindholm<\/a> and Noah Hanifin are within shooting distance of that milestone.<\/p>\n Also among those taken fifth: Carey Price, Karl Alzner, Elias Pettersson<\/a>, Jake Sanderson, Cutter Gauthier and Ivan Demidov.<\/p>\n It\u2019s just a small group of players selected fifth in the past 26 years that didn\u2019t pan out, including Stanislav Chistov, Michael Del Colle and Olli Juolevi.<\/p>\n Advertisement 6<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n If the Leafs maintain the fifth-overall pick, it will be the fourth time in franchise history that the club has had that selection.<\/p>\n Rielly was the most recent in 2012 with Brian Burke, the Leafs\u2019 GM at the time, later infamously saying he would have taken the defenceman first overall. Fourteen years later, Rielly is seventh on the franchise list in games played with 951 and, from the 2012 draft class, only defenceman Cody Ceci (953) has played in more games than him.<\/p>\n Rielly is fourth in points from that draft year with 549, behind forwards Filip Forsberg (756), Tomas Hertl (607) and Teuvo Teravainen (552).<\/p>\n Schenn was the fifth pick overall by the Leafs in 2008. His long and steady NHL career, which includes two Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning, is winding down with the Buffalo Sabres.<\/p>\n And way back in 1964, in the second NHL amateur draft, the Leafs chose forward Tom Martin at No. 5. The Toronto native played in just three games with the Leafs, but went on to have three productive seasons in the WHA, including two with the Toronto Toros.<\/p>\n Advertisement 7<\/p>\n This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n Article content<\/p>\n FALL OUT OF TOP FIVE<\/p>\n The nightmare situation.<\/p>\n The Bruins, an Atlantic Division rival, get stronger courtesy of a team they\u2019ve had fun beating up on in the playoffs during the Matthews era.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a 44% chance the Leafs fall to sixth and a 14.2% chance they fall to seventh. In either case, hello Beantown.<\/p>\n The idea that the Leafs wouldn\u2019t have their 2026 first-round pick seemed to be a lot more palatable when the season began.<\/p>\n Read More<\/p>\n John Chayka’s trade history in Arizona didn’t feature wise blockbusters<\/p>\n![\"NHL](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0502-bill-daly-maple-leafs-lottery-card.jpg\")
NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly reveals the Toronto Maple Leafs during the NHL Draft Lottery in 2012. Toronto Sun filesArticle content<\/p>\n![\"Toronto](\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/21.1.1\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-tsun.svg\"){kind=logo}
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