Reports from Israeli sources suggest Donald Trump is considering a multibillion-dollar payment to Iran to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade, exposing divisions within the US administration and tensions with Israel.<\/p>\n
America\u2019s love affair with Israel has hit an astonishing bump because President Donald Trump, in a political panic over the economic fallout from the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is now \u201ctalking to Iran,\u201d as an Israeli insider put it, about ending the current impasse in return for a payment from the United States of at least $25 billion, and possibly much more, to the government in Tehran. In return, Iran would end its blockade and open the strait to all traffic, ending a crisis for Trump, the US, and much of the world.<\/p>\n
One motive for Trump\u2019s extraordinary step \u2013 I was not told how or by whom Trump\u2019s offer was communicated \u2013 may be personal. The president, I was told, \u201cno longer trusts Israel. He now believes he was misled\u201d by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the potential for success of the recent joint US-Israeli bombing attack, a goal of which was to trigger an overthrow of the religious leadership in Iran.<\/p>\n
The president is said not to share Israel\u2019s existential concern about the need to destroy or neutralise the large depot of partially enriched uranium that is allegedly stored in at least three deep tunnels in Iran. Iran as a member of the world\u2019s nuclear club may be an existential threat for the Israeli leadership, but not for the president of the United States.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe wants out,\u201d the Israeli insider told me, and the Israeli leadership \u201cis very upset because Trump\u201d\u2013 in his fear of the political cost to him of a continuing blockade of the strait \u201chas shown a willingness to ignore Israeli interests and desires.\u201d People in the Israeli leadership \u201csay he\u2019s lost it. He doesn\u2019t think of the consequences. You cannot do negotiations with Iran because every step we make he immediately broadcasts it on his social media posts. He is so obtuse.\u201d<\/p>\n
One clear sign of Trump\u2019s indecision came when the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg published similar stories quoting Trump telling \u201chis aides\u201d to prepare for a lengthy US Navy blockade of the strait in an effort to compel cash-strapped Iraq to agree to giving up the nation\u2019s stockpile of partially enriched uranium. The Journal depicted the offer as demonstrating that Trump, \u201cwho always seeks a quick and salable victory, is devoid of a silver bullet.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Israeli insider told me that the reports accurately reflected the conflicting opinions inside the administration about how to resolve the crisis, given the widespread belief that the Iranian leadership, facing steep losses of income, will eventually have to give in to economic pressure.<\/p>\n
It was not known if the White House aides providing the news media briefing were aware of the President\u2019s interest in opening the strait via a payoff to the Iranian government.<\/p>\n
The Israeli leadership \u201chad high hopes\u201d for the most recent air war. It was met by a vigorous and region-wide Iranian missile and drone counterattack, the insider said, but Trump \u201cis so impatient.\u201d Another sore point, I was told, is the White House\u2019s easy acceptance of the notion that \u201cIran had more of a claim to the strait than Oman and the United Arab Emirates, both of whom border on the waterway. Why does Iran have a special claim? Because Trump accepted it? We\u201d\u2013 the Israelis \u2013\u201cwere left with no cards to play.\u201d<\/p>\n
It is understood in Israel, I was told, that Trump was prepared to sweeten the deal for the Iranian government, if needed, to open the strait in the hopes of giving the Republican Party better chances in the fall congressional elections. Long-standing sanctions could be dropped and more billions found.<\/p>\n
The concern about Trump\u2019s eagerness to make a deal to open the strait, even if it involves a huge payment to Iran\u2019s government, is known to a few present and retired Israeli military leaders. One retired senior officer, asked for his view of what is widely seen as a crisis, told me, \u201cYes. Trump is more than happy to fuck Bibi and us all the way. Our ingenious PM wants the war again, evaporating their [Iran\u2019s] oil industry and electricity. Not a good idea. I am against starving the Iranian people. And the Gulf Arabs and the world too will pay the price. My solution: the blockade [now under way in the strait]. But this needed American\/world long term perseverance. Trump is not built for that.\u201d<\/p>\n
I was subsequently told about a recent White House meeting on the ongoing Iranian war that abruptly ended on a bizarre note. The senior leaders of the administration\u2019s foreign policy team \u2013 Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Cain, among others \u2013 were there, along with the usual aides and notetakers, and as the meeting went on Trump clearly was losing interest. He suddenly brightened after about 20 minutes and excitedly began talking about his planned ballroom, then under construction despite a disputed court order to desist. He showed his national security leaders a slide show of the ballroom-to-be, as put together by the contractor.<\/p>\n
At that point Iran and Israel, and life and death, no longer seemed to matter.<\/p>\n
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