{"id":649493,"date":"2026-05-04T18:06:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T18:06:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/649493\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T18:06:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T18:06:17","slug":"the-nba-playoffs-have-never-felt-this-unpredictable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/649493\/","title":{"rendered":"The NBA Playoffs Have Never Felt This Unpredictable"},"content":{"rendered":"

NBA<\/a>NBA<\/a>The first round wasn\u2019t just weird\u2014it was revealing. The NBA\u2019s margins have all but disappeared.\"\"Getty Images\/Ringer illustration\"\"<\/a>By Howard Beck<\/a>May 4, 12:34 pm UTC \u2022 6 min<\/p>\n

Jaylen Brown was still processing the painful end of the Celtics\u2019 season\u2014a stunning first-round loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, capped by a crushing Game 7 defeat in Boston\u2014when he was asked to put his emotions into words. The first adjective he landed on? Great. And not in a sarcastic sense, either.<\/p>\n

\u201cGreat season,\u201d Brown said Saturday night. \u201cObviously, it didn\u2019t finish the way we would have liked. \u2026 Just from our guys, to come out for a Game 7 and play with that level of intensity, play with that level of trust, that\u2019s the style that we feel like we\u2019ve been doing all year, and I loved it. It was a pleasure.\u201d The Celtics had \u201ccome up a little bit short,\u201d Brown said, but \u201cnothing for our team to hang our head over.\u201d<\/p>\n

Minutes before Brown took the podium, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla had spoken into the same microphone and philosophized about the tension of the human experience. \u201cWhen you go after greatness, you have to accept the other side of that,\u201d he said. \u201cThat’s just kind of the duality of how things work.\u201d<\/p>\n

The kids might snarkily dismiss this all as \u201ccope,\u201d but the truth of the Celtics\u2019 season was profoundly complicated. If there\u2019s a level of human experience beyond duality, the Celtics lived it these past 12 months\u2014from the devastation of Jayson Tatum\u2019s ruptured Achilles last spring<\/a>, to a dramatic roster overhaul<\/a>, through an offseason of doubt<\/a> and ultimately a stunning winter revival<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Celtics were supposed to take a \u201cgap year\u201d<\/a> without their brightest star; they won 56 games. Brown was supposed to wilt without his superstar tag-team partner; he became a fringe MVP candidate. Tatum was supposed to miss the entire season; he returned in March, reclaiming his dominance over the stretch run and entrenching the Celtics as contenders once more.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Boston surged to a 3-1 lead over the Sixers \u2026 only to lose the next two games, then lose Tatum to knee soreness, leaving the Celtics outmanned in Game 7. They\u2019ll go down as just the eighth no. 2 seed to lose to a no. 7 seed and the 15th team to lose a series after leading 3-1.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Joel Embiid and Jaylen Brown after Game 7<\/p>\n

Jesse D. Garrabrant\/NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n

It all looks bad in the abstract and through the lens of history. No one wants to be on those lists. But this was a most unusual Celtics campaign, concluding against a most unusual first-round opponent. The Sixers, for all their warts and volatility, are stacked with All-Star talent, from Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to the aging (but still dangerous) Paul George to the very young (but very dangerous) rookie VJ Edgecombe. \u201cI don\u2019t feel like that was a traditional seventh seed,\u201d Brown said, and he was right.<\/p>\n

But then, this entire first round was untraditional\u2014unconventional, unpredictable, weird, occasionally painful, and sometimes bordering on absurd\u2014and it was marked by prolonged series, razor-thin talent margins, and two major upsets. If it felt chaotic, it wasn\u2019t your imagination. By almost every measure, this was the most volatile first round in recent memory:<\/p>\n

All told, there were 48 games in the first round\u2014the most since 2014 (50) and the second most in the past two decades. The average since 2003 (when the NBA adopted the best-of-seven first round) is 43.7.Of the eight first-round series, six lasted at least six games\u2014the most since 2014 (also six).Three series went the full seven games\u2014also the most since 2014, when there were five. Every series in the Eastern Conference went at least six.\"\"Ringer illustrationTwo teams overcame 3-1 deficits to win a series, with the Sixers rallying to beat the Celtics and the Detroit Pistons doing the same to Orlando. Before this year, there had been just 13 instances of that happening in NBA history. It did happen twice in the 2016 postseason and twice in the 2020 postseason, but this is the first time two teams have pulled it off in the same round.Two top-three seeds were ousted: the no. 2 Celtics in the East and the no. 3 Denver Nuggets in the West (whoops)<\/a>. And it took the top-seeded Pistons a seventh game to avoid the same fate.Nikola Jokic, widely regarded as one of the two greatest players in the world, was ousted when his Nuggets fell to the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games. The second round will thus begin without Jokic, Brown and Tatum, Kevin Durant, and several other superstars whose teams missed the playoffs entirely, including Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. (We could also include Tyrese Haliburton, who missed the entire season after rupturing his Achilles in the 2025 Finals.)Oh, and meanwhile, LeBron James, at 41 and in his 23rd season, led the Los Angeles Lakers to a six-game victory over the Houston Rockets.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe first round has been by far the best I’ve seen,\u201d said Stan Van Gundy, who spent nearly three decades on NBA benches as an assistant and head coach. \u201cUsually, in the first round you get a couple good series, and the rest of them aren\u2019t very good. Usually, your 4-5 series are pretty good, and maybe your 3-6. But the top two teams usually roll. We\u2019ve had six good series out of the eight. That\u2019s phenomenal.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Nikola Jokic during Game 4 against the Timberwolves<\/p>\n

Garrett Ellwood\/NBAE via Getty Images<\/p>\n

And what\u2019s become clear, to Van Gundy and most other league observers after this two-week roller coaster of results, is that the NBA has only two truly elite teams right now: the Oklahoma City Thunder (who swept the Phoenix Suns) and the San Antonio Spurs (who dismissed the Portland Trail Blazers in five games). That\u2019s it. End of list.<\/p>\n

But the margin in just about every other first-round series looked frightfully slim. Every team seemed equally talented and equally flawed. (Asked for his assessment last week, one NBA scout looked at me and just held two fingers a centimeter apart.)<\/p>\n

The NBA\u2019s new age of parity<\/a> has mostly been defined by the rotating door of Finals champions (seven franchises in seven years) and Finals participants. Even conference champions can\u2019t repeat anymore. But the 2026 postseason is shedding light on a different brand of parity, where the talent differential between a 60-win team and a 45-win team is much closer than the standings suggest.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think there’s parity everywhere, except at the very top,\u201d said Van Gundy, now the lead analyst for Amazon Prime. \u201cI think that OKC and San Antonio are just way out in front of everybody else. And going forward, I think that’s only going to get worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

The tanking race<\/a> this season created a bottom tier of about 10 teams. But in between the poles at bottom and top? \u201cThree through 20 in the league are pretty close,\u201d Van Gundy said. \u201cI think you could match up about anybody and expect a good series. \u2026 You\u2019ve got a huge group of good teams.\u201d<\/p>\n

Anytime a top-three seed goes down in the first round, it\u2019s a big deal. But on closer examination, even this year\u2019s upsets don\u2019t look like major upsets. The Sixers\u2019 modest win total (45) was mainly a reflection of Embiid and George missing huge chunks of the season. The Magic, who nearly shocked the Pistons, also won just 45 games while dealing with a series of injuries to their key players, including Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Given healthy rosters, neither of these teams would have been so low in the standings.<\/p>\n

More on the NBA Playoffs <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Part 2: Cleveland Survives, Knicks-Sixers, and Whaddya Do for Denver, Houston,\u00a0and Atlanta With Zach Lowe<\/p>\n

Part 2: Cleveland Survives, Knicks-Sixers, and Whaddya Do for Denver, Houston,\u00a0and Atlanta With Zach Lowe<\/p>\n

Cleveland Survives, Knicks-Sixers, and Eliminated Teams<\/p>\n

Part 2: NBA Playoff Reactions<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

More on the NBA Playoffs <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Part 2: Cleveland Survives, Knicks-Sixers, and Whaddya Do for Denver, Houston,\u00a0and Atlanta With Zach Lowe<\/p>\n

Part 2: Cleveland Survives, Knicks-Sixers, and Whaddya Do for Denver, Houston,\u00a0and Atlanta With Zach Lowe<\/p>\n

Cleveland Survives, Knicks-Sixers, and Eliminated Teams<\/p>\n

Part 2: NBA Playoff Reactions<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Injuries to key players have also inexorably shaped the playoffs to date, with Lakers star Luka Doncic missing all of the first round (and costar Austin Reaves missing the first four games), Durant missing all but one game for the Rockets, Anthony Edwards missing the Wolves\u2019 final two games, Aaron Gordon missing half of the Nuggets\u2019 series, Franz Wagner missing the Magic\u2019s last three games, Embiid missing the Sixers\u2019 first three games, and Tatum missing the Celtics\u2019 final game.<\/p>\n

In this era of unparalleled parity, a single ankle turn could change the course of history. Or, in Boston\u2019s case, one sore knee.<\/p>\n

The Celtics, who just one week ago looked like the favorites in the East, now head into another offseason of uncertainty and nagging questions. What if Tatum had stayed healthy? What if the supporting cast just isn\u2019t good enough? And where will they stand next season, amid an Eastern Conference with a revived contender in Indiana, an evolving powerhouse in Detroit, a ferocious rival in New York, and rising squads in Orlando and Atlanta \u2026 to say nothing of the team from Philly that just bounced them from the playoffs?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot to consider for all of them, including Celtics president Brad Stevens, who was just named Executive of the Year for his deft work remaking the roster last summer\u2014an effort that led, surprisingly, to a wildly successful regular season.<\/p>\n

It was indeed a great run, as Jaylen Brown asserted. Just not great enough. Certainly not in Boston, where banners are all that matter. But then, that\u2019s the duality of life in the NBA.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Howard Beck<\/p>\n

<\/a>Howard Beck got his basketball education covering the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers for the L.A. Daily News starting in 1997, and has been writing and reporting about the NBA ever since. He\u2019s also covered the league for The New York Times, Bleacher Report, and Sports Illustrated. He\u2019s a co-host of \u2018The Real Ones.\u2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NBANBAThe first round wasn\u2019t just weird\u2014it was revealing. The NBA\u2019s margins have all but disappeared.Getty Images\/Ringer illustrationBy Howard…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":649494,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[574],"tags":[64,63,726,85],"class_list":["post-649493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-basketball","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-basketball","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=649493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/649494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=649493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=649493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=649493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}