{"id":649677,"date":"2026-05-04T20:07:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T20:07:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/649677\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T20:07:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T20:07:11","slug":"2026-nba-playoffs-betting-model-leans-heavily-on-one-team-in-conference-semifinals-futures-best-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/649677\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 NBA Playoffs betting: Model leans heavily on one team in conference semifinals futures best bets"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Celtics<\/a>? Clipped. The Nuggets<\/a>? Nixed. The Rockets<\/a>? Removed. The 2026\u00a0NBA<\/a>\u00a0Playoffs are moving on without Boston, Denver and Houston, and on Monday night the Eastern and Western Conference semifinals begin with two Game 1s.<\/p>\n

As the second round commences, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a> remain the favorites to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy again, at -155 at FanDuel. They were +115 entering the postseason. The young Spurs<\/a> are still the second choice, at +400.<\/p>\n

But the elimination of the Celtics, Nuggets and Rockets have significantly altered the odds down the board. The Knicks<\/a> (+900), Pistons<\/a> (+1500) and Cavaliers<\/a> (+2000) now round out the top five in the NBA Finals futures odds. The Lakers<\/a> (+4000), 76ers<\/a> (+4500) and Timberwolves<\/a> (+10000) complete the field.<\/p>\n

Bet on the NBA playoffs and NBA futures with the FanDuel promo code<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread betting<\/a>\u00a0picks this season, gives the Thunder the best chance to win the title at 49.5%. But with the odds at -155, the model does not like a play on Oklahoma City.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, the model has found value elsewhere in futures betting. The simulations are especially high on one team in particular.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Knicks -270 to win series against 76ers
Knicks +145 to win Eastern Conference
Knicks +900 to win NBA Finals\u00a0Eastern Conference semifinals implied odds: 73.0%; Model odds: 91.3%Eastern Conference finals implied odds: 40.8%; Model odds: 52.0%NBA finals implied odds: 10.0%; Model odds: 20.6%<\/p>\n

The SportsLine Projection Model loves New York. And why not? The Knicks have looked like a different team in the playoffs, closing out the Hawks<\/a>, 4-2. New York won the last three games of the series by 16, 29 and 51 \u2014 yes, 51 \u2014 points, with two of those games being in Atlanta.<\/p>\n

Fans in Gotham should be ecstatic that the home team crushed the Hawks with Jalen Brunson<\/a> needing only to be Robin and not Batman. While he was very good over the final three games (25.0 points per game on 52.8% shooting), Brunson entered the series averaging 29.9 points per game over his career in the postseason, the fifth-most in NBA history (minimum 40 games) behind only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic<\/a>, Allen Iverson and LeBron James<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Knicks and 76ers split their season series 2-2, but Brunson & Co. won the last two games, including a 138-89 blowout in the last meeting, which was in Philadelphia. Though the 76ers also are playing like a different team now that\u00a0Joel Embiid<\/a>\u00a0is in the lineup, the SportsLine Projection Model still gives New York a resounding 91.3% chance to win the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.<\/p>\n

The elimination of Boston also greatly enhances the Knicks’ chances to win the East, according to the model. Entering the playoffs, New York had just a 19.0% chance to win the conference in the model’s simulations. That has improved to 52.0% with the Celtics out and the top-seeded Pistons struggling against the Magic<\/a>.<\/p>\n

And that, in turn, has almost tripled the Knicks’ chances of winning the whole thing. The model now says New York has a 20.6% chance to have a championship parade through the Canyon of Heroes. That’s up from 7.3% entering the postseason.<\/p>\n

Timberwolves +600 to win series against Spurs\u00a0Implied odds: 14.3%; Model odds: 24.7%<\/p>\n

The SportsLine Projection Model sees significant value with only one play in the Western Conference: Minnesota to beat San Antonio in the seven-game series. The Timberwolves advanced to the West semifinals by stunning Nikola Jokic<\/a> and the Nuggets, 4-2.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Minnesota won two of the three matchups against the Spurs this season and has won five of the past six overall. With Rudy Gobert<\/a> (7-foot-1) and three 6-foot-9 specimens in Jaden McDaniels<\/a>, Julius Randle<\/a> and Naz Reid<\/a>, the Timberwolves have the size to throw at Victor Wembanyama<\/a> while also causing matchup problems for the young Spurs on the other end.<\/p>\n

The model gives Minnesota a better chance than the odds say, even knowing that Donte DiVincenzo<\/a> is out for rest of the postseason and that Anthony Edwards<\/a> (who averaged 36.7 points a game against San Antonio this season) is questionable to play in the first two games of the series with a hyper-extended left knee and bone bruise. Anything Edwards could contribute to Games 1 and 2 would be a bonus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Celtics? Clipped. The Nuggets? Nixed. The Rockets? Removed. The 2026\u00a0NBA\u00a0Playoffs are moving on without Boston, Denver and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":649678,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[557],"tags":[314226,314227,20453,7218,64,63,615,1664,17603,1662,7214,71863,7220,62609,20455,37975,74678,7896,7232,11473,5665,74679,590,149332,314224,314223,139020,139019,314222,314225,139951,1666,3906,5548,12985,9688,60872,10549,85,314228,314229,12838],"class_list":["post-649677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba","tag-76ers-knicks-odds","tag-76ers-knicks-picks","tag-anthony-edwards","tag-atlanta-hawks","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-betting","tag-boston-celtics","tag-cleveland-cavaliers","tag-denver-nuggets","tag-detroit-pistons","tag-donte-divincenzo","tag-houston-rockets","tag-jaden-mcdaniels","tag-jalen-brunson","tag-joel-embiid","tag-julius-randle","tag-lebron-james","tag-los-angeles-lakers","tag-luka-doncic","tag-minnesota-timberwolves","tag-naz-reid","tag-nba","tag-nba-best-bets","tag-nba-futures","tag-nba-futures-odds","tag-nba-odds","tag-nba-picks","tag-nba-playoff-odds","tag-nba-playoffs-betting","tag-nba-predictions","tag-new-york-knicks","tag-nikola-jokic","tag-oklahoma-city-thunder","tag-orlando-magic","tag-philadelphia-76ers","tag-rudy-gobert","tag-san-antonio-spurs","tag-sports","tag-timberwolves-spurs-odds","tag-timberwolves-spurs-picks","tag-victor-wembanyama"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=649677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/649678"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=649677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=649677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=649677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}