{"id":652404,"date":"2026-05-06T02:55:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T02:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/652404\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T02:55:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T02:55:09","slug":"marc-marquez-analysis-spanish-grand-prix-ducati-rider-market-le-mans-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/652404\/","title":{"rendered":"Marc Marquez, analysis, Spanish Grand Prix, Ducati, rider market, Le Mans, preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

Imagine a MotoGP rider who was 44 points off the championship lead after four rounds, hadn\u2019t won for 10 Grands Prix, was battling to be 100 per cent healthy and clearly wasn\u2019t on the grid\u2019s best bike. <\/p>\n

Zero chance of a world championship, right?<\/p>\n

Every MotoGP qualifying, practice and race LIVE and ad-break free from lights out to the chequered flag. New to Kayo? Start Your Free Trial Today ><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

It\u2019s where Marc Marquez finds himself heading into this weekend\u2019s French Grand Prix at Le Mans, Ducati\u2019s reigning world champion scuffing his feet in the early rounds of the defence of his seventh premier-class title<\/a>, one where he\u2019s chasing fitness and feeling against the onslaught of MotoGP\u2019s new benchmark, Aprilia. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s not completely dire; Marquez has won two of the year\u2019s four sprint races, after all. <\/p>\n

But if he\u2019s to win a 10th world title in all and eight in MotoGP to usurp bitter rival Valentino Rossi in the sport\u2019s record books, he\u2019s going to need to rewrite his own history, and add his name to a very short list of riders from 2013 when he first arrived in the premier class as a 20-year-old rocket ship.<\/p>\n

With MotoGP\u2019s sprint race era from 2013 onwards opening up 12 more points to be won at every weekend, the maths still sound feasible for Marquez; there\u2019s still 666 points available in 2026, after all. <\/p>\n

But form, momentum and precedent count against him in almost every instance. <\/p>\n

What gives? <\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m the first to try and look at things optimistically, but at the same time realistically,\u201d Marquez said after crashing out of second place in the early laps of the Spanish Grand Prix<\/a> at Jerez two weekends ago. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re not on the podium on Sundays it\u2019s very difficult, but we\u2019ll try to improve bit by bit and rediscover that feeling.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the moment, we\u2019re not riding at our best or have the pace \u2013 I mean, my pace \u2013 to fight for the world championship.\u201d<\/p>\n

MORE MOTOGP NEWS<\/p>\n

SECOND-HALF STAR<\/a>: Why Japanese star is trading MotoGP\u2019s best bike for its worst<\/p>\n

NEWS WRAP<\/a>: Aussie\u2019s frustration as Yamaha flounders, why champ wasn\u2019t penalised <\/p>\n

Marc Marquez goes off in a HUGE crash | 00:39<\/p>\n

STATS AND STORYLINES: THE CASES AGAINST A MARQUEZ COMEBACK<\/p>\n

MotoGP campaigns are long, arduous, bruising and can sometimes flip in an instant, which means it\u2019s not surprising to learn that Marquez \u2013 for the dominance he\u2019s shown over multiple seasons in his 14-year premier-class career \u2013 has led wire-to-wire just once, when he won the opening 10 Grands Prix of 2014 to stroll to his second title. <\/p>\n

In his other six title-taking seasons, Marquez has been behind at some stage. But never like 2026. <\/p>\n

Largest points deficits in Marquez\u2019s championship years<\/p>\n

2013: 30pts (after Rd 6\/Catalunya), 300pts remaining<\/p>\n

2014: Never trailed in standings<\/p>\n

2016: 10pts (after Rd 6\/Italy), 300pts remaining<\/p>\n

2017: 37pts (after Rd 6\/Italy), 300pts remaining<\/p>\n

2018: 18pts (after Rd 2\/Argentina), 425pts remaining<\/p>\n

2019: 9pts (after Rd 3\/USA), 400pts remaining<\/p>\n

2025: 1pt (after Rd 5\/Spain), 629pts remaining<\/p>\n

2026: 44pts (after Rd 4\/Spain), 666pts remaining<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, since Marquez came into MotoGP in 2013, six different riders have won titles; only two have overcome larger deficits than Marquez\u2019s current 44-point hole, and both have significant caveats. <\/p>\n

Largest points deficits for MotoGP champions from 2013<\/p>\n

2013 (Marquez, Honda): 30pts (after Rd 6\/18)<\/p>\n

2014 (Marquez, Honda): Never trailed<\/p>\n

2015 (Jorge Lorenzo, Yamaha): 29pts (after Rd 3\/18)<\/p>\n

2016 (Marquez, Honda): 10pts (after Rd 6\/18)<\/p>\n

2017 (Marquez, Honda): 37pts (after Rd 6\/18)<\/p>\n

2018 (Marquez, Honda): 18pts (after Rd 2\/19)<\/p>\n

2019 (Marquez, Honda): 9pts (after Rd 3\/19)<\/p>\n

2020 (Joan Mir, Suzuki): 48pts (after Rd 3\/14)<\/p>\n

2021 (Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha): 14pts (after Rd 1\/18)<\/p>\n

2022 (Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati): 91pts (after Rd 10\/20) <\/p>\n

2023 (Bagnaia, Ducati): 11pts (after Rd 3\/20)<\/p>\n

2024 (Jorge Martin, Ducati): 10pts (after Rd 9\/20)<\/p>\n

2025 (Marquez, Ducati): 1pt (after Rd 5\/22)<\/p>\n

In 2020 \u2013 a strange, covid-curtailed calendar of just 14 races across just nine different tracks, all in Europe \u2013 Marquez suffered a season-ending right shoulder injury in the first race at Jerez, leading to Suzuki\u2019s Joan Mir winning the title by 13 points with just one victory for the season over Yamaha\u2019s Franco Morbidelli, who took three victories; neither rider has won a Grand Prix since.<\/p>\n

PIT TALK PODCAST: Renita and Matt break down Alex Marquez\u2019s second successive win at Jerez, examine another big crash for Marc Marquez, and look at what Senna Agius\u2019 back-to-back Moto2 wins could mean for his MotoGP future. Listen to Pit Talk now<\/a><\/p>\n

In 2022, Ducati\u2019s Francesco Bagnaia fell 91 points behind reigning world champion Fabio Quartararo (Yamaha) at the halfway mark of the season after crashing out of the German Grand Prix at the Sachsenring, his fourth DNF in the opening 10 races. <\/p>\n

Once Bagnaia stayed upright for long enough on what was comfortably the grid\u2019s best bike the longer that season went \u2013 he won the following four Grands Prix after Germany \u2013 the Italian mowed Quartararo down to win the title by 17 points in a final-round showdown in Valencia.<\/p>\n

How does that relate to Marquez\u2019s 2026 predicament? This season won\u2019t be as bizarre as 2020 was \u2013 there\u2019s never been another season like it \u2013 while the Ducati GP26 is far from the grid\u2019s best bike, even with Alex Marquez breaking Aprilia\u2019s run of five straight Grand Prix wins<\/a> last time out at Jerez. <\/p>\n

Throw in the looming challenge of MotoGP\u2019s 2027 regulation reset<\/a>, where the current 1000cc bikes will be replaced by 850cc models with reduced aerodynamics and ride-height devices, and with Pirelli set to replace Michelin as the sport\u2019s tyre supplier, and you can see why any factory, not just Ducati, will impose a hard stop on developing bikes that are soon to be redundant well before this season ends. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s why the gradient of the mountain Marquez must climb seems steeper than his deficit, and the points still on the table to be won, would indicate.<\/p>\n

Marquez has won two sprints so far this season, but Sunday Grand Prix success has eluded him. (Photo by JORGE GUERRERO \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n

WHY BARRIERS TO BUCKING THE TREND MIGHT PROVIDE MOTIVATION<\/p>\n

Marquez\u2019s impediments to that eighth premier-class world title are three-fold. <\/p>\n

One is Aprilia, which \u2013 until Marco Bezzecchi was led over the line after lap one of the Spanish Grand Prix two weekends ago \u2013 had led every lap since last year\u2019s Portuguese Grand Prix, the penultimate round of 2025.<\/p>\n

Bezzecchi \u2013 with three wins and a second in Grands Prix this season \u2013 has been as close to perfect on Sundays as he could be<\/a>, while factory Aprilia teammate and 2024 world champion Jorge Martin (second), along with Trackhouse Aprilia duo Raul Fernandez (sixth) and the fast-finishing Ai Ogura (eighth)<\/a> sees all four Aprilias in the top eight of the standings. <\/p>\n

Secondly, Ducati \u2013 still struggling to improve on the GP24 machine that Martin used to beat Bagnaia to the 2024 title, and which Alex Marquez used last year to uncork a championship runner-up campaign few saw coming \u2013 has been the most confusing manufacturer of 2026. <\/p>\n

Alex Marquez had been nowhere in the opening three rounds before breaking through at Jerez, traditionally one of his strongest tracks. Bagnaia \u2013 who will move to Aprilia for 2027 \u2013 looks a shell of his former self after a chastening season as Marc Marquez\u2019s teammate in 2025, and appears somewhat checked out. <\/p>\n

Fermin Aldeguer, a race-winner on a GP24 in his rookie season<\/a> last year, has been injured and underdone. Fabio Di Giannantonio \u2013 who pointedly has refused the many updates Ducati has brought to the track to unlock performance, choosing instead to work away methodically at the GP26\u2019s base package \u2013 is Ducati\u2019s best-placed rider in the championship<\/a> (third) after four rounds. <\/p>\n

Crashes have cost Marquez valuable points against a horde of Aprilia riders, Bezzecchi in particular. (Photo by Pierre-Philippe MARCOU \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n

And lastly? A large part of Marquez\u2019s deficit is Marquez himself, after what looked to be a relatively innocuous crash after he\u2019d won the 2025 title has had long-lasting consequences. <\/p>\n

Taken out by Bezzecchi on lap one of the Indonesian Grand Prix last October \u2013 a week after he\u2019d won the title at Motegi in Japan \u2013 Marquez sat out the rest of the season to recover after yet another right arm\/shoulder surgery, his fifth since 2020. Progress was slow, and he came into pre-season testing undercooked and compromised. <\/p>\n

While he\u2019s won sprints in Brazil and Spain \u2013 the second of which owed itself to a slice of luck and smattering of controversy when he crashed in the rain at Jerez and entered the pit lane from an atypical angle from the final corner of the track to switch bikes<\/a> \u2013 his Grands Prix have been underwhelming. <\/p>\n

After winning 11 of the first 16 Grands Prix of last season, it\u2019s been quite the record scratch. A puncture saw Marquez retire from outside of the podium places in Thailand, while Di Giannantonio elbowed him off the podium in Brazil. He finished fifth at his beloved Circuit of the Americas in Austin, recovering from a long-lap penalty for crashing into Di Giannantonio in the sprint, while he was fortunate to walk away unscathed from a 200km\/h crash at Jerez on lap two after he\u2019d been passed by brother Alex Marquez for the lead of the Grand Prix. <\/p>\n

Marquez\u2019s form, fitness and future all leads to a confusing question for what happens from 2027 onwards. With MotoGP rider contract rumours flying around before the season even began \u2013 but few deals announced as the sport\u2019s manufacturers (MSMA) attempt to nail down a revenue-sharing deal with MSEG (the sport\u2019s promoters) to run the series for the next five years \u2013 it was widely reported that Marquez would sign a two-year deal to remain in Ducati red.<\/p>\n

When that news cooled and speculation began to swirl that Marquez was, in fact, looking for a 1+1-year contract with the option for the final year on his side, silence ensued until Ducati CEO Claudio Domenicali told GPone.com last week that: \u201cthe renewals are pretty much finalised, just a few final details on everything. I think the official announcement will arrive soon \u2026 it\u2019s clear that all communication has been slowed down by the ongoing negotiations with the organiser, and all of this impacts 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n

With the seventh MotoGP title that had eluded him since 2019 finally in his keeping last year, Marquez\u2019s longevity becomes a must-watch without the goal that drove him for six long years. <\/p>\n

At 33, only Honda\u2019s Johann Zarco (35) is older of the current crop; in a revealing interview with the-race.com last year, Marquez referenced finding the sweet spot of when to call it quits between what are MotoGP\u2019s modern-day extremes, Casey Stoner (who retired as a two-time world champion in 2012, aged just 27) and Rossi, who hung on until age 42 but won just one Grand Prix in his final five seasons. <\/p>\n

Agius sets sights on MotoGP debut | 04:19<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a conversation for 2027 and beyond, however long that \u2018beyond\u2019 lasts. But for now, perhaps the motivation Marquez needs is to add another chapter to his history he\u2019d prefer to not have to by eroding a deficit he\u2019s never faced before, and with plenty of obstacles \u2013 body, bike, opposition \u2013 serving as roadblocks. <\/p>\n

\u201cFor some reason, at the moment I don\u2019t feel like I did last year,\u201d Marquez said after Jerez. <\/p>\n

\u201cLast year I rode more naturally, I was always in a good position on the bike. This year I can\u2019t do it. I\u2019m also crashing too much, that\u2019s where I need to understand a few things.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is still a long way to go, but it\u2019s not easy. Every Sunday we are suffering and when this happens, it means something is missing. We are working to try to find that something, but with the level we have now, we can\u2019t compete for a championship. I believe the Ducati is still one of the best bikes on the grid, if not the best \u2026 I just need to ride better.\u201d<\/p>\n

Easy to say, harder to do. Any other rider this far back with this little momentum and this much of a bike deficit? You\u2019d all but rule them out. <\/p>\n

But Marquez has shown time and time again that he\u2019s not any other rider. Succeed or fail, it\u2019ll be a narrative that only gains momentum as 2026 moves forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Imagine a MotoGP rider who was 44 points off the championship lead after four rounds, hadn\u2019t won for…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":652405,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[572],"tags":[2620,2095,1724,64,14017,63,315535,36624,11308,262595,315529,315530,306817,9239,2057,16230,12370,70678,315531,23688,5717,2105,841,14211,177555,941,315532,9398,20874,5744,315540,4280,16268,806,805,803,804,315536,262583,2041,2067,73239,25586,2119,141867,315533,315537,84703,94245,49516,101335,13147,146930,49513,315538,37214,315539,254327,115446,3752,288734,314674,21788,11298,2812,3595,2020,85,16276,3370,3725,11857,82967,2614,101345,2062,2753,315534,2086,2836,3561,9020],"class_list":["post-652404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-motosport","tag-agence-france-presse","tag-america","tag-asia","tag-au","tag-austin","tag-australia","tag-bike-deficit","tag-bitter-rival","tag-brazil","tag-championship-runner-up","tag-chastening-season","tag-claudio-domenicali","tag-crashes-outmotorsport","tag-eastern-asia","tag-europe","tag-fabio-quartararo","tag-fermin-aldeguer","tag-final-corner","tag-final-details","tag-franco-morbidelli","tag-germany","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-grand-prix","tag-grands-prix","tag-home-grand-prix","tag-japan","tag-jerez-report","tag-joan-mir","tag-jorge-lorenzo","tag-jorge-martin","tag-looming-challenge","tag-marc-marquez","tag-matt-clayton","tag-motor","tag-motor-sports","tag-motosport","tag-motosports","tag-multiple-seasons","tag-news-wrap","tag-north-america","tag-northern-america","tag-penultimate-round","tag-pit-lane","tag-pit-talk","tag-podium-places","tag-points-deficits","tag-precedent-count","tag-premier-class-career","tag-premier-class-title","tag-premier-class-world-title","tag-province-of-valencia","tag-raul-fernandez","tag-regulation-reset","tag-reigning-world-champion","tag-rider-contract-rumours","tag-rider-market","tag-right-arm-shoulder-surgery","tag-right-shoulder-injury","tag-rocket-ship","tag-rookie-season","tag-season-ends","tag-second-half-star","tag-sets-sights","tag-south-america","tag-south-eastern-asia","tag-southern-europe","tag-spain","tag-sports","tag-sprint-races","tag-texas","tag-thailand","tag-two-time-world-champion","tag-tyre-supplier","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-valencia","tag-western-europe","tag-world-champion","tag-world-champion-scuffing","tag-world-championship","tag-world-title","tag-yamaha","tag-young-gun"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=652404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/652404\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/652405"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=652404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=652404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=652404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}