{"id":65417,"date":"2025-08-13T15:48:11","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T15:48:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/65417\/"},"modified":"2025-08-13T15:48:11","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T15:48:11","slug":"answering-crucial-fantasy-football-draft-questions-at-running-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/65417\/","title":{"rendered":"Answering crucial fantasy football draft questions at running back"},"content":{"rendered":"

After spotlighting the quarterback position<\/a>, our fantasy football roundtable series shifts focus to the running backs. The Athletic fantasy football crew of Jake Ciely, Michael Salfino, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don return to offer their opinions on hot-button questions at the RB position.<\/p>\n

What are the statistical expectations for lauded rookie Ashton Jeanty? Who are the RBs to target among the Top 12 in ADP in addition to those falling outside the Top 20? Who is the biggest backup lottery ticket? Read on for our answers to these questions, and stay tuned in later this week for our wide receiver and tight end roundtables!<\/p>\n

Note: All ADPs mentioned below are from Fantasy Pros.<\/p>\n

What is your Ashton Jeanty stat line prediction for his rookie campaign?\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of Ashton Jeanty: Kirby Lee \/ Imagn Images<\/p>\n

All members of our fantasy panel appear optimistic for a big year from Jeanty, though Ciely\u2019s projections are more conservative than others when it comes to how the rookie RB will be used in the passing game. Behrens was the most optimistic in the group in that regard and also gave him the highest total TD projection, with 14, which would have had him trailing only seven RBs last year (regular season) \u2014 behind Bijan Robinson and ahead of David Montgomery.<\/p>\n

ANALYST<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

RUSH YARDS<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

RECEPTIONS<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

REC. YARDS<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

TOUCHDOWNS<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ciely<\/p>\n

1237<\/p>\n

33<\/p>\n

243<\/p>\n

10<\/p>\n

Salfino<\/p>\n

1300<\/p>\n

53<\/p>\n

425<\/p>\n

13<\/p>\n

Behrens<\/p>\n

1265<\/p>\n

58<\/p>\n

415<\/p>\n

14<\/p>\n

Del Don<\/p>\n

1025<\/p>\n

49<\/p>\n

390<\/p>\n

9<\/p>\n

Funston<\/p>\n

1225<\/p>\n

50<\/p>\n

400<\/p>\n

12<\/p>\n

CONSENSUS<\/p>\n

1210.4<\/p>\n

48.6<\/p>\n

374.6<\/p>\n

11.6<\/p>\n

What games-played total (over\/under) for Christian McCaffrey would make you comfortable betting the over?\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of Christian McCaffrey: David Gonzales \/ Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Ciely: I\u2019d say 9.5. Did you know that, over the past three seasons, Breece Hall (2022) is the only RB to finish among the Top 25 (in half-PPR FPPG) who failed to play at least 10 games in a season. Plenty of running backs missed three to five games, but a lost season is far from as frequent as most believe. So, that\u2019s where I get my \u201crandom\u201d over\/under here, even with McCaffrey\u2019s injury history.<\/p>\n

Salfino: I\u2019ll go with 8.5, given his average since 2020 is 9.5.<\/p>\n

Behrens: Let the record show McCaffrey is actually the healthiest running back on the Niners\u2019 depth chart as of this writing. He\u2019s doing just fine. CMC did not limp into camp with any preexisting injuries. That said, I am not risking my money on his calves and hamstrings unless the number is 7.5 or less.<\/p>\n

Del Don: He\u2019s averaged about 12 games played per season throughout his career, and I\u2019m buying CMC in 2025, so let\u2019s say 12.5? McCaffrey\u2019s Achilles problem was (hopefully) healed through stem cell treatment; he\u2019s a maniac when it comes to his body, and all offseason health reports have been overwhelmingly positive. Of course, he\u2019s 29 and has elevated risk, but I\u2019m willing to take it on.<\/p>\n

Funston: I\u2019ll say 6.5. CMC played seven games or fewer in three of his past five seasons, a timeframe that is a lot more relevant for a nearing-age-30 RB with a substantial injury history than those first three campaigns of his career when he played 16 games in each \u2014 the halcyon days! Bottom line: CMC will be somebody else\u2019s dice roll, not mine.<\/p>\n

Which Top 12 RB, according to ADP, are you targeting most at their price?\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of Kyren Williams: Kirby Lee \/ Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Ciely: McCaffrey. He has the potential to be the top player in fantasy. Period. So, if we\u2019re getting him at a discount from the top tier of running backs and mid-to-late first rounder, I\u2019ll take that risk. Outside of him, I have a lot of Kyren Williams, even before the contract extension. The main concern with Rams\u2019 running backs is the potential for a few bad games turning the page to the next option, since Sean McVay can turn good running backs into great ones. Williams\u2019 new contract points to that risk being extremely unlikely \u2026 at least for 2025.<\/p>\n

Salfino: In Flex 10 (three WRs and a flex), none. In Flex 9 (two WRs and a flex), any of them. Know your format! But in the spirit of the question, Jonathan Taylor and Jacobs seem like values.<\/p>\n

Behrens: No one ever fights you for Jacobs, despite the excellent team context and his history of high-level production. Jacobs is just 27, and he\u2019s finished as a Top 5 fantasy back in two of the past three seasons. He\u2019s also ranked among the NFL leaders in missed tackles in every healthy season of his career, so he\u2019s not simply a high-volume plodder.<\/p>\n

Del Don: Chase Brown, who was fantasy\u2019s RB5 after Zack Moss was injured in Week 8 last season. All offseason signs point to the Bengals again giving Brown a heavy workload in 2025, and it\u2019s a terrific situation in a high-scoring offense. Don\u2019t worry about Brown ceding some passing-down work, as third downs don\u2019t often lead to targets anyway.<\/p>\n

Funston: Kyren Williams is RB12 by ADP, and he sometimes drops even a little more than that. Either way, I\u2019ll gladly accept him in that value range, as he\u2019s ranked as my RB8, which is still a discount on his Top 6 fantasy finishes in the past two seasons. I don\u2019t know why the fantasy community likes to predict the demise of Kyren, but he\u2019s once again set for one of the league\u2019s largest workloads, and he just landed a three-year deal, which pretty much solidifies that notion.<\/p>\n

Which Top 12 RB, according to ADP, are you fading most at their price?\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of Jonathan Taylor: Justin Casterline \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n

Ciely: I\u2019m not hard-fading any of them, but there are two I\u2019ve rarely drafted: Taylor and Jeanty. That\u2019s only because someone else is always more willing. I don\u2019t understand how people are worried about Saquon Barkley, CMC and Derrick Henry but not Taylor, who hasn\u2019t played a full season in three years. As for Jeanty, I love him, but I\u2019m just a tad concerned that the lack of passing game volume and touchdowns will limit his ceiling and ability to reach the Top 5.<\/p>\n

Salfino:\u00a0Obviously, McCaffrey, as he is old, was very unproductive last year, had a weird injury with an unknown prognosis (both Achilles were injured) and lost a ton of speed (3.5 mph from 2023, according to NGS, a 17% decline).<\/p>\n

Behrens: De\u2019Von Achane is a teacup-sized back coming off a season of weird usage. There\u2019s always someone in a draft who likes him a full round earlier than I do. If I\u2019m drafting a back in the second round, I need to believe he can plausibly finish as the overall RB1. That\u2019s not Achane.<\/p>\n

Del Don: Taylor went off at the end of last season, but his receiving work is extremely limited, and he\u2019s quietly missed more games than McCaffrey over the last three seasons. Taylor\u2019s expected fantasy points per game dropped 5 points during Anthony Richardson starts last season, and Joe Flacco is gone.<\/p>\n

Funston: How does the saying go? \u201cFool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times, shame on\u2026\u201d As a three-time injury bust, I\u2019m avoiding CMC. Simple as that. Sure, if he plays a full season, I might regret my stance. But, in my best Allen Iverson voice, \u201cWe\u2019re talking a full season!\u201d<\/p>\n

Which RB outside the Top 20 in ADP are you targeting most based on ADP value?\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of Jordan Mason: Brad Rempel \/ Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Ciely: Jaydon Blue. While I don\u2019t believe Blue is built to be a 300-touch option, I do believe in his ability. If Javonte Williams still doesn\u2019t look anything like his pre-injury self, Blue can take advantage and lead this backfield, especially with his passing game value.<\/p>\n

Salfino: Now we\u2019re talking. I don\u2019t really target anyone, but the best value at that range for me is Jordan Mason at RB34. I guarantee 10+ TDs.<\/p>\n

Behrens: I\u2019ve now completed enough drafts to firmly declare Isiah Pacheco is my guy. He\u2019s healthy following a season lost to injury and unthreatened by any other names in the team\u2019s backfield hierarchy. We shouldn\u2019t need to convince you that Kansas City\u2019s offense can deliver an every-week fantasy RB.<\/p>\n

Del Don: TreVeyon Henderson is my RB16, and I often target him and RJ Harvey. Rookies take more patience but frequently pay off with the biggest reward when it matters most in the fantasy season. Henderson will share carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, but the explosive rookie looks like the new Jahmyr Gibbs. Go get him.<\/p>\n

Funston: I\u2019d been targeting Cam Skattebo, but I don\u2019t like that he\u2019s dealing with a hamstring injury, especially since we\u2019re talking about a whole lot of hamstring with this guy. I like the other rookies mentioned here, too, in Henderson and Blue. I\u2019m also happy to take Jaylen Warren at his RB31 price, as he\u2019s always been a helpful fantasy asset, even in a short-side platoon role. His experience could lead to his biggest role yet, with Najee Harris off to L.A. Sure, Kaleb Johnson could be a 1-for-1 replacement for Najee. But there\u2019s also a reasonable chance he takes time with the NFL learning curve, allowing Warren to eat for a good chunk of the season.<\/p>\n

Which backup running back who would be unlikely to get 100 total carries without an injury to the RB ahead of him has the most league-winning upside if circumstances thrust him into a lead role in-season?\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of Sean Tucker: Elsa \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n

Ciely: There are several, and some are obvious, like Trey Benson. While the big names get attention, I\u2019d like to mention DJ Giddens, who would have Top 25 upside if Taylor misses time for the fourth-straight season. Tahj Brooks, who has a lot of similarities to Chase Brown and is similar to Giddens, could carry Top 25 value.<\/p>\n

Salfino: The best backup RB in the NFL by a mile is Sean Tucker of the Buccaneers \u2014 6.2 yards per carry; 56% success rate (average is 47%); over 9.0 yards per target as a receiver. Plus, he had an elite broken tackle rate of once every 10 carries.<\/p>\n

Behrens: Ray Davis was a fun watch as a rookie, and he delivered proof-of-concept in the one game James Cook missed due to injury, piling up 152 yards against the Jets. If Davis happens to find significant touches this season, he\u2019ll gain must-start status.<\/p>\n

Del Don: Isaac Guerendo probably would get injured himself quickly if it happens, but he\u2019d be a legit Top 5 fantasy RB any week he\u2019s starting in San Francisco. There are many other intriguing options, and my favorites include Will Shipley, Keaton Mitchell, Jarquez Hunter, Brashard Smith, DJ Giddens, Sean Tucker and Tahj Brooks.<\/p>\n

Funston: Jaylen Wright. Miami has ranked first and sixth, respectively, in FPPG at RB in each of the past two seasons. And we know head coach Mike McDaniel relishes speed, an attribute that positions Wright (4.38 40) as the heir apparent in the backfield should something happen to Achane. In addition to his wheels, Wright offers decent physicality in his 5-foot-10, 210-pound frame and upside as a pass catcher \u2014 Miami has also been Top 5 in RB receptions each of the past two campaigns.<\/p>\n

List these running backs in order of most likely to return last year\u2019s value to least likely to return last year\u2019s value \u2014 James Cook (RB8), Alvin Kamara (RB10), James Conner (RB11), Chuba Hubbard (RB13).\"\"<\/p>\n

Photo of James Conner: Christian Petersen \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n

Ciely: Cook, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Alvin Kamara \u2014 but all super close. Cook is merely for touchdown regression, but I still think he\u2019s an RB1. Betting a near-full season from Conner again seems ill-advised. Hubbard had inefficiency issues down the stretch. And, Kamara is the main weapon for the Saints \u2014 even in a terrible offense, he should be a fringe RB1.<\/p>\n

Salfino: I hate all these guys at their ADPs, and Cook and Conner were great to me in 2024. But it\u2019s never the player, it\u2019s the price. Seriously, I would not draft any of these guys at their ADPs. I\u2019ll go with the order in which they\u2019re being drafted, but how can you draft Cook there when he lost 40% of snaps to Ty Johnson in an elimination game?<\/p>\n

Behrens: Hubbard, Conner, Kamara, Cook<\/p>\n

Del Don: Conner, Hubbard, Cook, Kamara<\/p>\n

Funston: Kamara, Conner, Hubbard, Cook \u2014 On the most likely end of the spectrum, I just think Kamara is too central to the Saints offense. It\u2019s hard to imagine them having any kind of success without getting the ball in his hands as much as possible. And, yes, he\u2019s had some injuries in his career, but he\u2019s played no fewer than 13 games in any of his eight seasons, the kind of CV that CMC can only dream of. As for the least likely end of the spectrum, it\u2019s easy to imagine Cook losing a half dozen touchdowns from his total of 18 a season ago, especially if they get the stouter Ray Davis more involved in goal-line situations.<\/p>\n

(Top photo of Chase Brown: Scott Taetsch \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After spotlighting the quarterback position, our fantasy football roundtable series shifts focus to the running backs. The Athletic…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":65418,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[563],"tags":[64,63,622,596,593,85],"class_list":["post-65417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-football","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fantasy-football","tag-football","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}