{"id":654949,"date":"2026-05-07T06:32:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T06:32:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/654949\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T06:32:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T06:32:25","slug":"ufc-328s-best-betting-props-parlays-and-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/654949\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 328\u2019s best betting props, parlays and picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 328<\/a> is live this weekend (Sat., May 9, 2026) at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ., streaming live online via Paramount+<\/a>. Just like the last PLE (premium live event, it\u2019s what we\u2019re calling these nowadays), this one is a stacked event. And we\u2019ve got two title fights up top this time.<\/p>\n

The main event is Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland for the UFC Middleweight title. Chimaev is staking his undefeated record against Strickland, who is looking to become a two time champ. There\u2019s been plenty of chatter and seeming bad blood<\/a> in this match-up. A lot of it sounds like wolf tickets <\/a>to me, though.<\/p>\n

The co-main event is Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira for the UFC Flyweight title. Van needs to win this to prove his legitimacy as a champ. He\u2019s got his hands full with the grappling wizard Taira, though.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s some great match-ups to round out the UFC 328 main card with Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley and King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens.<\/p>\n

The \u201cPrelims\u201d are pretty good this weekend, too. We\u2019ve got Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz, Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov and Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki. There\u2019s also an appearance from Jim Miller. He fights Jared Gordon.<\/p>\n

As always, there\u2019s lots to bet on this card and we\u2019ve got odds for all the fights below:<\/p>\n

UFC 328 Main Card Money Line Odds<\/p>\n

\"Sean<\/a><\/p>\n

Sean Strickland can be a two time champion at UFC 328. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)<\/p>\n

Chimaev won the belt in his last fight. His win over Dricus Du Plessis, by decision, might have been one of the most one-sided decisions in UFC history (certainly when it comes to title fights and most definitely when it comes to challengers defeating champions). Before Borz played concrete blanket with DDP, he beat Robert Whittaker by, literally, breaking his face (see it here<\/a>). Chimaev is 15-0 and 9-0 in UFC with wins over Kamaru Usman, Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns.<\/p>\n

Strickland was masterful last time out. He picked Anthony Hernandez apart before finishing him with a massive knee to the body (see it here<\/a>). That win came after his ho-hum unanimous decision loss to Du Plessis a year prior. That was his second loss to Du Plessis. The first cost him the title he inexplicably won from Israel Adesanya back in 2023.<\/p>\n

Is this just going to be Chimaev vs. DDP all over again? The oddsmakers certainly seem to think so.<\/p>\n

This is a tough fight for me because I\u2019ve doubted, and been proved wrong, by both these fighters. I thought Chimaev would have a tough time with Whittaker \u2014 then Chimaev ran through him. I thought Hernandez would destroy Strickland \u2014 then Strickland put down one of the most impressive, from a strategic and technical standpoint, performances we\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n

I guess now I\u2019m doubting Strickland again. But it\u2019s not because I don\u2019t have respect for him as a fighter. He\u2019s truly excellent at what he does and what he does is good enough to beat 90 percent of the Middleweights on the planet. Chimaev just feels like he\u2019s in that top ten percent, though. He seems special.<\/p>\n

His wrestling is so strong and so smothering, that it just doesn\u2019t seem like there\u2019s anyone in the division who can stand up to it (or get up from it). This is a boring pick, but I think Chimaev runs forwards, swats Strickland\u2019s knee to the side and then lays on him for however long he feels like.<\/p>\n

The big question for me is whether Chimaev will, again, favor position over submission? Or will he try and finish this fight?<\/p>\n

When you listen to all the talk around this fight, with guns and all that nonsense, it seems like these two are going to tear each other\u2019s heads off. I don\u2019t buy any of it for a second, though. I think these guys are just selling the fight. People have compared this to Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov, but I don\u2019t think Chimaev is as emotional as Nurmagomedov and I don\u2019t think Strickland has said anything close to as triggering as what McGregor said.<\/p>\n

I think Chimaev will take plenty of pleasure in beating Strickland the way he beat Du Plessis and I think, once it\u2019s over, they are gonna high five and hug it out.<\/p>\n

From a betting standpoint, this query has me looking at the round totals. We\u2019re set at 3.5 rounds. The over is +120 and the under is -154. I like the over, for reasons stated above, so it\u2019s hard for me to turn down that plus money. I\u2019m pretty conservative when it comes to this kind of thing, though.<\/p>\n

There are alternative round props you can take on this fight. Over 2.5 rounds is -120. Over 1.5 rounds is -225. For my best bet I\u2019m going to go with over 2.5 rounds. I\u2019ll make a more specific pick in my long shot section, though.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-120)<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA<\/p>\n

Fight Streak results for UFC Perth! Get your pick in for UFC 328!!!<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Well, a lot of folks got back on the horse this weekend – mostly courtesy of Quillan Salkilld.<\/p>\n

Quilkid is also the reason AllDayJ hit the top of the leaderboard with their 4 fight streak. They are joined by Uh Huh, who sat out last week (where ya at?!).<\/p>\n

I also got on the board thanks to the Battle Giraffe!<\/p>\n

Here’s what we’re looking at this weekend:<\/p>\n

Main card<\/p>\n

185 lbs.: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland<\/p>\n

125 lbs.: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira<\/p>\n

265 lbs.: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta<\/p>\n

170 lbs.: Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley<\/p>\n

155 lbs.: King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens<\/p>\n

Prelims<\/p>\n

185 lbs.: Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz<\/p>\n

170 lbs.: Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov<\/p>\n

155 lbs.: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki<\/p>\n

155 lbs.: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon<\/p>\n

185 lbs.: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio<\/p>\n

145 lbs.: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis<\/p>\n

185 lbs.: Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos<\/p>\n

125 lbs.: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa<\/p>\n

Susrukaev and Gautier jump out as obvious picks, but I actually think those match-ups might be a little tougher than expected (and both still have things to prove). I’m going to go with Sean Brady, because Joaquin Buckley can’t stop a takedown to save his life.<\/p>\n

Who you taking?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Rec 0CommentsThin Stroke Comment Icon BubbleReplyRead 14 replies\"Joshua<\/a><\/p>\n

Joshua Van defends his title for the first time at UFC 328. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Joshua Van (+142) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-170)<\/p>\n

Van \u2018won\u2019 the UFC title in December. That\u2019s after Alexandre Pantoja\u2019s arm snapped during an innocuous takedown attempt. The situation around the win didn\u2019t stop Van and his team parading around the cage like they\u2019d knocked Pantoja out in 16 seconds, though. Van did rightfully earn his chance to fight Pantoja, after a six fight winning streak that included beatdowns of Brandon Royval and Bruno Silva. He\u2019s 16-2 as a pro with his only losses being a shock uppercut KO to the mercurial Charles Johnson (see it here<\/a>) and a submission loss to the veteran Damon Jackson back when he was just a babe.<\/p>\n

Taira earned his shot at Van by dismantling Brandon Moreno in December. He\u2019s the first man to ever finish Moreno with strikes (see it here<\/a>). Before that he beat short notice opponent Hyun Sung Park with a face crank (see it here<\/a>). Before those sensational victories, Taira lost a close and very exciting fight with Royval (by split decision). The Royval loss was the first loss of the 26 year-old\u2019s career.<\/p>\n

Van is in that rare group of guys who are underdogs in their first title defence. And I can see why.<\/p>\n

Van\u2019s win over Royval was fantastic, but his streak leading up to that includes a lot of midling guys at Flyweight. I have a lot more questions around how good he is and what he can do than I do with Taira.<\/p>\n

Taira\u2019s record also leaves a little to be desired. He\u2019s 2-1 against ranked fighters. The other ranked fighter he beat was Alex Perez. Even so, I feel like we\u2019ve seen more levels to Taira\u2019s game and can recognize that he has elite grappling and is pretty decent on the feet. Van\u2019s striking is very hard to deal with, for its volume, though I don\u2019t know if we\u2019re ready to call him an elite striker yet. And we have very little information about how good he is on the ground (I suspect he\u2019s nowhere near as good as Taira is).<\/p>\n

Van has good takedown defense, but his 81 percent on paper is inflated because Rei Tsuruya spammed low quality takedown attempts at him and went 4-21 when they met. Two of Tsuruya\u2019s takedowns came in the first round. Durden got Van down twice in the first round, too (he went 2-8 for the entire fight). He was taken down in the first round by Felipe Bunes and Zhagas Zhumagulov, too.<\/p>\n

If the key to Van\u2019s takedown defense is to batter people on the feet to slow down their later attempts, then that\u2019s going to spell trouble in this fight. If Taira gets him down in the first round, I don\u2019t know if we see a second.<\/p>\n

The round total for this one is 3.5. I like the under, which is -105, because I do think Taira is going to get those early takedowns and I do think he\u2019s going to get a submission. Taira by submission is +165. That needs to be higher to get me interested, though. I\u2019m going to stick with Taira on the moneyline here and look for a submission prop bet in my long shot section.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Tatsuro Taira moneyline (-170)<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA\"Waldo<\/a><\/p>\n

Waldo Cortes-Acosta gets his first appearance of the year at UFC 328. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Alexander Volkov (-185) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+154)<\/p>\n

You have to feel for Volkov.<\/p>\n

He was the victim of an absolute robbery in December, 2024 at UFC 310. He fought a super smart fight against Ciryl Gane and everyone thought he had earned one of the best decision wins of his career. Two of the three judges didn\u2019t see it that way, though. After that, Gane got his fight with Tom Aspinall and was subsequently booked to fight Alex Pereira at the White House. After the robbery Volkov was booked against Jailton Almeida. He took the decision over Almeida (thanks to a little cosmic karma).<\/p>\n

Cortes-Acosta was on a mission to make Heavyweight fun again last year. Previously, Salsa Boy had a reputation for being a boring fighter. But in 2025 he fought five times, finishing Ryan Spann (see it here<\/a>), Ante Delija (see it here<\/a>) and Shamil Gaziev (see it here<\/a>). His only loss was to Sergei Pavlovich, where he showed off that he might have the hardest chin in the promotion. In January he beat the brakes off Derrick Lewis (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s kind of tough to bet against Cortes-Acosta with this run he\u2019s been on. However, I think I\u2019m going to do that.<\/p>\n

Cortes-Acosta has had a great run, I think partly because he\u2019s been facing a lot of guys who are happy swinging for the fences and leaving their chins out in the open. That\u2019s about 85 percent of the Heavyweight division. Volkov doesn\u2019t live there, though.<\/p>\n

Volkov has learned that this isn\u2019t the right way to fight. And he\u2019s gotten smarter over the last few years. His win over Pavlovich in 2024, which set up his Gane fight, was especially notable for this reason. He peppered Pavlovich with his jab for 15 minutes straight and broke the man down, without ever letting him get within range for his destructive big looping shots.<\/p>\n

Cortes-Acosta throws like Pavlovich does, so I think we could see Volkov run that jab out again and keep this fight at the distance he wants. Cortes-Acosta\u2019s options to get around that are to hurry forwards throwing or trying to turn this into a dirty boxing match against the cage. I like Volkov\u2019s chances of surviving those measures, though. He\u2019s a great clinch fighter, too. And he\u2019s not bad on the ground, either. He was able to sweep Almeida down there.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve loved this run from Cortes-Acosta, but I think it ends here.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Alexander Volkov moneyline (-185)<\/p>\n

\"Sean<\/a><\/p>\n

Sean Brady will try and get into the crowded Welterweight title picture at UFC 328. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Sean Brady (-170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+142)<\/p>\n

Brady\u2019s chance to get in the Welterweight title picture was snuffed out by Michael Morales in November. He lost that fight by first round TKO (see it here<\/a>). That\u2019s nothing to get mad at, though \u2014 Morales just might be a champ in waiting. Brady had earned the fight with the top prospect after submitting Leon Edwards (see it here<\/a>) and getting a dominant decision over the recently retired Gilbert Burns.<\/p>\n

Buckley talked a big game last year, but was brought down to earth by Kamura Usman in June. Usman totally mopped the canvas with Buckley and, by doing so, snapped New Mansa\u2019s six fight winning streak. Before the Usman fight Buckley stopped Colby Covington (yay!) and Stephen Thompson (boo!).<\/p>\n

I really like Brady in this match-up and that\u2019s because I don\u2019t rate Buckley\u2019s wrestling and, particularly, his takedown defense and his get ups. Usman held him down for a long time and was able to take him down, at will, through the first four rounds of their fight. Usman, who is near 40, whiffed on his last six takedowns in the fourth. All told he went 4-13 on takedowns and that\u2019s a big reason why Buckley\u2019s takedown defense looks decent on paper (72 percent).<\/p>\n

We won\u2019t remember Brady as being as good a wrestler as Usman, but a 33 year old Brady is pretty equivalent to a 38 year old Usman, in my opinion. I think Brady will have the same early success Usman did, while not getting tired (in this three round fight). Brady is also more active with his ground and pound than Usman and is also great at snatching up arms. I think that\u2019s all going to be very tough for Buckley to deal with.<\/p>\n

Could the much longer Buckley spark out Brady on the feet, like Morales did? Sure, I guess. But I don\u2019t think Buckley is equivalent to Morales and I think Brady will be able to avoid Buckley\u2019s jab and kicks well enough on route to getting this fight where he wants it.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Sean Brady moneyline (-170)<\/p>\n

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n

USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada\u2019s various provinces and territories.Australia\/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.\"King<\/a><\/p>\n

King Green is part of an all veteran match-up at UFC 328. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

King Green (-340) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+270)<\/p>\n

Green finished Daniel Zellhuber in February with a second round TKO (see it here<\/a>). That was win number 15 for the 39 year-old. Before that he totally befuddled Lance Gibson Jr. for a split decision win. Those victories have helped us forget about the wheelkick KO he suffered against Mauricio Ruffy (see it here<\/a>) and his quick submission loss to Paddy Pimblett (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

After a series of side quests, Stephens returned to UFC in 2025 to fight Mason Jones in his native Iowa. He lost a very fun unanimous decision to Jones. He did have his moments, though. Part of the reason for that seemed to be that Jones wanted to give the UFC, and the crowd, what they wanted out of a Jeremy Stephens fight. Stephens went back to bare knuckle after that, though. In October he was stopped by Mike Perry at BKFC 82. Stephens, who is also 39, hasn\u2019t won a UFC fight since TKO\u2019ing a green Josh Emmett in 2018.<\/p>\n

This could be a lot of fun. I think we\u2019re getting a fire fight and lots of jawing back and forth. That suits both guys\u2019 styles, but with where they are in their careers, I think Green comes out on top of that. And I\u2019m not alone, look at those odds.<\/p>\n

They are both the same age, but Green\u2019s hand speed seems to have stayed with him. Stephens has looked pretty slow lately and he just doesn\u2019t seem to have the same kind of power. Green, obviously, still has some pop in his bat (just ask Zellhuber).<\/p>\n

I think Green either gets a stoppage or 30-27s across the board here. So I\u2019m happy to take him minus the points.<\/p>\n

Best bet: King Green -5.5 (-115)<\/p>\n

UFC 328 \u2018Prelims\u2019 Under Card Odds<\/p>\n

\"Ateba<\/a><\/p>\n

Ateba Gautier looks to continue his run at UFC 328. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Ateba Gautier (-1100) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+700)<\/p>\n

Gautier experienced his first adversity in the UFC in January. Andrey Pulyaev was able to frustrate Gautier and take him to a decision (I also had Pulyaev taking a round off him). Before that Gautier had steamrolled all of his opponents in the Octagon. This included crushing first round finishes of Tre\u2019ston Vines, Robert Valentin and Jose Medina. The 24 year-old (gonna need to see that birth certificate) is now 10-1 as a pro with his only loss being a split decision in his second ever pro fight (where he was, allegedly, 20 years-old). That fight was in Wales against a Welshman and it was a total robbery.<\/p>\n

Diaz took a gruelling decision over Djorden Santos in March, 2025. He\u2019s been out since then. That was only his second UFC fight. Before that he was quickly finished by Zhang Mingyang. Diaz was a loser on Contender Series, getting finished by Joe Pyfer in 2022.<\/p>\n

Gautier is getting crazy odds here. I\u2019m not brave enough to pick Diaz flat out here, but I do think there is reason to be cautious with Mini Ngannou. Diaz is extremely tough and I think he could frustrate Gautier the way Pulyaev did. Only, Diaz has more power than Puylaev has. So I think there\u2019s a chance Gautier gets touched in this fight. We don\u2019t know how he\u2019ll react to this (if it happens).<\/p>\n

Believing that this won\u2019t be a 30 second squash match opens up some interesting possibilities for me. The most obvious of those is over 1.5 rounds, which is a whopping +230 right now. Diaz is also getting +7.5 points and is still +475 with that handicap. Fight to go the distance is also +600.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+230)<\/p>\n

\"Tim<\/a>\"MMA\"Joel<\/a><\/p>\n

Joel Alvarez returns at UFC 328. Ed Mulholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Joel Alvarez (+145) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (-175)<\/p>\n

Alvarez is on a four fight winning streak. That includes stoppages over Marc Diakiese, Elves Brener and Drakkar Klose. His most recent fight was in October. That\u2019s when he went up to Welterweight and dominated Vicente Luque (that looks pretty good given what we\u2019ve seen from Luque since).<\/p>\n

Amosov finally made his UFC debut in December, quickly submitting Neil Magny (see it here<\/a>). Amosov is most known for his exploits in Bellator, where he was Welterweight champion with wins over Logan Storley and Douglas Lima. He lost his title to Jason Jackson. Amosov is also known for taking time off from fighting to return to Ukraine to fight. literally, against the Russian invasion.<\/p>\n

This is a really interesting fight.<\/p>\n

I had Alvarez pegged as the Lightweight contender that no one was talking about, before he moved up to 170 lbs. A big reason for his threat at 155 lbs. was his incredible size and reach for that division. He\u2019s 6\u20193\u201d with a 77 inch reach. That\u2019s still big for Welterweight. Michael Morales is 6\u2019 0\u201d with a 79 inch reach.<\/p>\n

I need to see more of Alvarez at Welterweight to know if he\u2019s special here.<\/p>\n

But I need to see a lot more from Amosov just to know if he can hang here. A submission win over a 38 year-old Neil Magny isn\u2019t much to write home about.<\/p>\n

An interesting wrinkle to this fight is the front choke. Both men love to attack with anaconda and D\u2019arce chokes. Amosov has seven wins like that. Alvarez has a couple of D\u2019arce, but also likes the standing guillotine a lot, too.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m wondering if these two cancel each other out when it comes to hunting for each other\u2019s neck. If that\u2019s the case, then I think striking might make a big difference in this fight. And I really like Alvarez\u2019s striking. Everything he throws is straight and clean. I think that, and his reach advantage, will lead to a win here.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Joel Alvarez moneyline (+145)<\/p>\n

\"Mateusz<\/a><\/p>\n

Mateusz Rebecki will try and bring the violence at UFC 328. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Grant Dawson (-170) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+142)<\/p>\n

Dawson got crushed by a Manuel Torres uppercut in December (see it here<\/a>). That broke a three fight winning streak for him, where he dominated Diego Ferreira, Rafa Garcia and Joe Solecki in Khamzat-like fashion. His loss prior to the Torres loss was his 33 second KO loss to King Green. The Green loss snapped the nine fight undefeated streak he had to start his UFC career.<\/p>\n

Rebecki has fought nothing but wars since 2024. He\u2019s 1-3 over that time, but he\u2019s shown incredible grit and toughness over that span. The first of those wars with Diego Ferreira, where he got out to an early lead but was broken down late in the third for a TKO loss. He then went toe-to-toe with Myktybek Orolbai for 2024\u2019s fight of the year. He won that by split decision. Next he lost a bloodbath opposite Chris Duncan. Most recently, in October, he lost a majority decision to a hobbled Ludovit Klein.<\/p>\n

This is an interesting fight. Rebecki gets himself into wars despite being a good wrestler. His wrestling prowess is often shot after a round and a half of fighting, though, after he\u2019s let his opponent stand and punch lumps out of him. Even if he fights more conservatively in this fight (spoiler alert: that won\u2019t happen), I still think he\u2019s going to have his hands full with Dawson.<\/p>\n

Dawson is a lot bigger than Rebecki. He\u2019s three inches taller, has six inches of reach over him and he carries more muscle. I think he\u2019s going to be able to drag Rebecki down and do what he does best; a total wrestle-mugging for three rounds.<\/p>\n

Dawson\u2019s kryptonite has been one punch KO power. But Rebecki has never shown us that.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Grant Dawson moneyline (-170)<\/p>\n

\"Jim<\/a><\/p>\n

Jim miller will make an appearance at UFC 328. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Jim Miller (+260) vs. Jared Gordon (-325)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s always a nice feeling to see Miller\u2019s name on a fight card. The 42 year-old is going into his 47th UFC contest this weekend. Despite being so long in the tooth, Miller has been very competitive lately. He\u2019s 3-3 over the last three years with losses coming to respectable names (King Green, Alexander Hernandez and Chase Hooper). His last win was in November, 2024 \u2014 a guillotine on Damon Jackson (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Miller has been given a fellow veteran for Saturday, in the form of Gordon. The 37 year-old is coming off a scary TKO loss to Rafa Garcia (see it here<\/a>). Before that he landed a scary KO himself, on Thiago Moises (see it here<\/a>). Gordon is 9-7 in UFC, but he could easily be 11-5 if not for questionable scoring in his losses to both Nasrat Haqparast and, famously, Paddy Pimblett.<\/p>\n

Miller is a surprisingly big underdog in this fight. I think it could be a very close bout with both men having success at what they do best (Gordon boxing and Miller grappling). The big question for me is whether Gordon can hurt Miller on the feet or not. Miller is extremely tough. He\u2019s only been stopped with strikes twice in his fifty fight career. That was a knee from Dan Hooker (in 2018) and a head kick from Donald Cerrone (back in 2014).<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see Gordon add his name to that list. That doesn\u2019t mean he won\u2019t win the fight, though. He could very well just box Miller up and out-land him, by a lot, for a comfortable decision.<\/p>\n

If Miller gets to spend time on the ground, though, I think there\u2019s a big chance he gets the win. I can see him wriggling around for a rear naked choke, but mostly I think he could use a lot of those dominant positions to suck up time and get the decision for himself.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m going to chicken out on picking the winner here and instead go for the fight going the distance (due to Miller\u2019s toughness, more than anything).<\/p>\n

Best bet: Fight to go the distance – Yes (-165)<\/p>\n

UFC 328 Early \u2018Prelims\u2019<\/p>\n

\"Marco<\/a><\/p>\n

Marco Tulio will hope to rebound at UFC 328. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Roman Kopylov (+154) vs. Marco Tulio (-185)<\/p>\n

Kopylov has lost two tough decision in a row now, to Gregory Rodrigues and Paulo Costa. Hard to get mad at him for that, given the form of those two Brazilians. Before that he scored a buzzer beater headkick KO over Chris Curtis (see that here<\/a>). Kopylov is now 6-5 in UFC.<\/p>\n

Tulio lost his 0 in November after getting thrashed by Christian Leroy Duncan (see the TKO here<\/a>). He was 14-0 at that point with finishes over Tresean Gore and Ihor Potieria.<\/p>\n

I think Kopylov might be too crafty for Tulio in this fight and we might see a repeat of when Koyplov fought Cesar Almeida. Tulio is as scary a striker as Almeida is, but he\u2019s more creative than the GLORY vet. I think Kopylov is going to try and employ his wrestling in this fight, which is what he did to totally neuter Almeida. Tulio has only faced one takedown attempt in his UFC career (from Duncan) and it was a successful one.<\/p>\n

I think Kopylov is also one of the best fighters Tulio has ever faced (along with Duncan). Kopylov has fought tougher and has never been stopped with strikes. I think Kopylov is able to find the right balance of getting his pot shots in on the feet and then dragging Tulio down to win rounds.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Roman Kopylov moneyline (+154)<\/p>\n

\"Pat<\/a><\/p>\n

Pat Sabatini is in a sleeper fight at UFC 328. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Pat Sabatini (-205) vs. William Gomis (+170)<\/p>\n

Sabatini took a strong decision over Chepe Mariscal at UFC 322 in November. Prior to that he managed to get past Joanderson Brito. Sabatini is now 8-2 in UFC and hasn\u2019t lost since being TKO\u2019d by Diego Lopes back in 2023. Between UFC fights Sabatini has managed to win and defend the Cage Fury FC Welterweight pro grappling title.<\/p>\n

Gomis took a decision over Robert Ruchala in September. Before that he dropped a very close split decision to Hyder Amil. Before that he won a split decision over Brito. Gomis is now 5-1 in UFC.<\/p>\n

I really love watching Sabatini fight. His grappling is great and he can really break guys with his back take and body triangle. He\u2019s also no slouch on the feet and was able to set up his takedowns on Mariscal with good punches.<\/p>\n

I like Gomis, but I don\u2019t think he\u2019s special at any one thing. And I don\u2019t think his striking is potent enough to get Sabatini out of there quickly or to cause enough damage that Sabatini\u2019s grappling quality substantially decreases. I think Sabatini likely gets the positions he wants and is able to ride them out to a decision.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Pat Sabatini moneyline (-205)<\/p>\n

\"Baisangur<\/a><\/p>\n

Baisangur Susurkaev will try and stay undefeated at UFC 328. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Baisangur Susurkaev (-600) vs. Djorden Santos (+440)<\/p>\n

Susurkaev took some time to warm up, but eventually took out Eric McConico with a right hook back in November (see it here<\/a>). Before that he submitted Eric Nolan (see it here<\/a>). The win over Nolan was the proper UFC debut for \u2018Hunter\u2019. That debut came four days after he won on Contender Series with a first round body kick KO.<\/p>\n

Santos took a decision over former hot prospect Danny Barlow in October. Before that he lost a decision to Ozzy Dias. He came off Contender Series in 2024 with a decision over Will Currie.<\/p>\n

For this fight, we\u2019ve got to focus on the round total. It\u2019s set at 1.5 rounds and I think that\u2019s very low. You have to be interested in the over, in my opinion, given Susurkaev\u2019s slow start against McConico. And then when you factor in Santos\u2019 toughness, that seems like too smart a play to turn down.<\/p>\n

Santos showed off a heck of a chin in that Diaz fight. I really think he\u2019s going to get through a few rounds with Susurkaev.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-166)<\/p>\n

\"Jose<\/a><\/p>\n

Jose Ochoa opens up the show at UFC 328. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Clayton Carpenter (+150) vs. Jose Ochoa (-180)<\/p>\n

Carpenter saw his undefeated record dashed in January, 2025 when he was out-wrestled by Tagir Ulanbekov. There\u2019s no shame in that. His next fight came in October and saw him tap to a first round kimura from Jafel Filho. Prior to this mini losing streak he had beaten Lucas Rocha and Juancamlio Ronderos. He earned his contract with a win over Edgar Chairez on Contender Series.<\/p>\n

Ochoa got grounded by Asu Almabayev last July for a unanimous decision loss. Before that he torched Cody Durden for a brutal second round stoppage (see it here<\/a>). Ochoa\u2019s debut was a unanimous decision loss to up-and-comer Lone\u2019er Kavanagh.<\/p>\n

This is a striker (Ochoa) vs. wrestle-boxer (Carpenter) match-up. If Carpenter wrestles more than he boxes, he\u2019s got a great chance of winning this. Ochoa\u2019s takedown defense is 59 percent and he was taken down on two of four attempts by Durden.<\/p>\n

If Carpenter boxes more than he wrestles, then he could be in trouble. There\u2019s real FAFO potential in this fight.<\/p>\n

I think Carpenter, in an 0-2 hole, is probably going to be motivated to be a wrestler. So I\u2019m expecting some early takedown pressure and lots of fence work in this fight. That could tire Ochoa out and make the chance of a finish shrink the longer we go.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Clayton Carpenter moneyline (+150)<\/p>\n

\"Can<\/a><\/p>\n

Can Chimaev get a finish at UFC 328? Geoff Stellfox\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a couple of long shots for Saturday night\u2019s action …<\/p>\n

Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission in round five (+1800)<\/p>\n

I think this fights goes deep and is largely a repeat of Chimaev vs. Dricus du Plessis. Maybe, though, Chimaev has heard some of the chatter about how boring that first fight was. And maybe he decides to ramp it up a notch later on when he feels pretty sure he\u2019s on his way to a win and that Strickland is there for the taking.<\/p>\n

Tatsuro Taira to defeat Joshua Van by first round submission (+750)<\/p>\n

I noted earlier how often Van has been taken down in the first round. I think that happens again here and I don\u2019t think he has the submission defense to hang with Taira down there.<\/p>\n

Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon split\/majority (+700)<\/p>\n

I think this is a really close fight and it goes the distance. I say that because I don\u2019t think Miller submits Gordon and I don\u2019t think Gordon knocks out Miller. I imagine some really close rounds in this fight, perhaps we see Gordon doing lots of work on the feet but then getting taken down and controlled for two minutes. Judges could be split on the outcome if we see something like that.<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 328: \u201cKhamzat vs. Strickland\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UFC 328 is live this weekend (Sat., May 9, 2026) at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ., streaming live…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":299838,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,266293,1396,179146,19458,19457,7990],"class_list":["post-654949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-328","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=654949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/299838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=654949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=654949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=654949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}