Three years ago, baseball needed fixing.<\/p>\n
The sport had grown slow and tedious. Pitchers paced the mound between maximum-effort heaves. Hitters sold out for power, tolerating strikeouts as a means to an end.<\/p>\n
Even more glaring was the spread of the infield shift: Index cards tucked into caps and back pockets provided precise defensive positioning, directing infielders onto the outfield grass to swallow up base hits.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe game has evolved in a way that nobody would have chosen if we were sitting down 25 years ago to chart a path toward the best version of baseball,\u201d Theo Epstein, the three-time World Series-winning executive turned league rules consultant, said at the time.<\/p>\n
The league craved the action of a bygone era \u2014 more balls in play, more athleticism\u00a0\u2014 and was no longer willing to wait. It installed pitch timers and enlarged bases, and it banned the extreme infield shift. No longer could defenders range into right field to gobble up balls that would have been singles in any other era. Hall of Famer Johnny Bench speculated some hitters would gain 10 to 15 points of batting average.<\/p>\n
Today, MLB\u2019s rule changes are hailed as a resounding success for the sport. Game times are down. Stolen bases are up. Even strikeout rates have flattened.<\/p>\n
Yet restricting the infield shift did not bring back the base hit. In 2026, league-wide batting average remains at its lowest point for position players in the Modern Era (.243) and batting average on balls in play (.291) is up only one point from 2022.<\/p>\n
By the numbers, MLB\u2019s hitting crisis continues.<\/p>\n
But if the game looks more normal, does anyone care?<\/p>\n
Introducing the new rules in 2023, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said fan sentiment was the league\u2019s \u201cguiding star\u201d: \u201cWhat do our fans want to see on the field?\u201d The response spoke to a desire to restore both action and a traditional aesthetic. Fans wanted steals, gappers and web gems; they didn\u2019t want hyper-optimized defensive alignments.<\/p>\n
The thinking was that restricting the shift would also incentivize left-handed sluggers \u2014 the hitters most frequently facing four-outfielder formations \u2014 to put the ball in play rather than swing for the fences. But in MLB front offices, there was little optimism that batting averages would bounce back.<\/p>\n
\u201cMost people thought the science was right and we weren\u2019t going to see teams hitting .270,\u201d said an American League executive, who was granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. \u201cBut we were going to see people less frustrated with the idea that David Ortiz is up and there are three guys standing in a triangle between 150 and 200 feet from home plate.\u201d<\/p>\n
That triangle has been banished, yet the root issue remains. Banning the shift revived one type of hit \u2014 lefties\u2019 BABIP on pulled ground balls is up 24 points since 2022 \u2014 but did not alter the sport\u2019s prevailing hitting philosophy.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven though we changed the shift in the infield,\u201d Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said, \u201cwe didn\u2019t change that the optimal ball in play is the ball in the air.\u201d<\/p>\n
Batters are lifting and pulling the ball more than ever. No batted-ball type has a lower batting average than a fly ball, and ever fewer are dropping for hits as clubs move toward increasingly athletic outfield trios.<\/p>\n
For MLB, solving the sport\u2019s most vexing trend \u2014 the death spiral of contact hitting \u2014 would require far more aggressive rule changes. And are fans asking for that?<\/p>\n
\u201cMaybe this is looking for a solution to a problem that people don\u2019t really care about right now,\u201d the exec said. \u201cMaybe they will at some point, if batting average crosses sub-.200 and it becomes unmanageable. But I feel like right now, people go to a baseball game and like what they see.\u201d<\/p>\n
One afternoon last August, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz applied a piece of textbook hitting to a 98 mph sinker<\/a> on the outer half of the plate. Kurtz scorched the baseball back up the middle at 100 mph. It zipped past the pitcher and skipped almost directly over second base.<\/p>\n Kurtz instantly knew what TV viewers only learned once the camera angle changed: It was a routine out. Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto took a half-step to his left, picked the rocket smoothly and threw out Kurtz by three steps.<\/p>\n If MLB asked fans which type of field out they\u2019d most like to eradicate, the overwhelming choice would be the one turned by a middle infielder shading as close as possible to second base \u2014 the surviving (and legal) remnant of the infield shift. Big leaguers were taught as Little Leaguers to drive the ball back up the middle. That hard contact turning into outs bothers them, too. \u201cThere\u2019s always a split second where you\u2019re expecting it to be a hit,\u201d said A\u2019s DH Brent Rooker. \u201cThen you realize there\u2019s a guy right there to take it away.\u201d Kurtz added: \u201cThat part of (the game) is just gone.\u201d<\/p>\n The out that truly surprised Kurtz occurred just two weeks into his AL Rookie of the Year campaign last year. In the eighth inning of a tied game, Kurtz stayed on a two-strike curveball and roped it to the opposite field at 105 mph. A gapper. Kurtz hauled around first base, helmet flying off, only to see center fielder Julio Rodr\u00edguez make a sliding catch<\/a>.<\/p>\n That, Kurtz said, was his \u201cwelcome to The Show\u201d moment.<\/p>\n Every hitter can relate. Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story is still stupefied by the ball he hit on the screws (translation: a 108.1 mph exit velocity) and was caught by a jogging left fielder<\/a> in the gap. \u201cThat\u2019s been a hit your whole life,\u201d Story said. \u201cThat\u2019s what you\u2019ve been taught to do. But that\u2019s part of the game now. Everything\u2019s optimized.\u201d<\/p>\n No one would suggest those snags are bad for the sport, yet better athleticism and more precise positioning in the outfield are impacting the run-scoring environment more than the shift ever did. In 2021, Baseball Prospectus researcher Rob Arthur found that improved defense was costing MLB thousands of hits<\/a>; the shift, he wrote, was \u201cthe tip of a defensive efficiency iceberg that\u2019s walloping offense across the league.\u201d Because the bulk of that run-suppressing iceberg has managed to build without harming the aesthetic of the sport like the infield shift did, MLB has left it alone.<\/p>\n Doubles and triples are disappearing<\/a> as fielders play deeper than ever to prevent balls over their heads. Outfield catch probability is rising<\/a>. BABIP on barreled balls is nosediving<\/a>.<\/p>\n A barrel is a ball struck at 98-plus mph and at an ideal launch angle to result in an extra-base hit. Hitters hunger for barrels. The search for more of them gave way to a launch-angle revolution, as teams sought slugging and hitting labs trained their pupils to produce it. But as the number of barrels has increased, more and more are being caught. In 2016, barrels to the outfield generated a .529 BABIP. In 2025, that figure dwindled to .392.<\/p>\n The desire to take away extra-base hits has led many teams to back up, shade the gaps and stack the outfield with rangy defenders. The Brewers\u2019 starting outfielders\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick \u2014\u00a0are in the 90th percentile or better in sprint speed. \u201cWe\u2019ve got all center fielders,\u201d the Brewers\u2019 Christian Yelich said. The Chicago Cubs employ the league\u2019s best outfield defender, Gold Glove center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, and boast the lowest opposing BABIP in the majors (.270) since the start of the 2025 season.<\/p>\n \u201cYou don\u2019t just stick a slugger in left field and say, \u2018Whatever you catch out there is a plus,\u2019\u201d Yelich said. \u201cThe game is not like that anymore. You can quantify how much that hurts you if you have poor outfield defense now.\u201d<\/p>\n A hitter with an all-fields approach forces defenses to play neutral positions \u2014\u00a0 \u201cA well-rounded hitter is the most difficult one to defend,\u201d Hinch said \u2014 yet many batters find the back-side, or opposite-field, outfielder is the best positioned. A pulled ball is often struck well enough to be a hit either way, Rooker said, and it\u2019s \u201cthe flares, semi-barrels to the opposite field that tend to be taken away.\u201d In 2026, BABIP on pulled balls to the outfield is .623, according to Statcast, while BABIP on opposite-field balls to the outfield is .363. Both are down more than 40 points over this past decade.<\/p>\n Sal Frelick, the Brewers\u2019 right fielder, delights in such back-side thievery.<\/p>\n \u201cIf they hit a 107 mph ball off the fence, I\u2019ll tip my cap and give him a double,\u201d Frelick said. \u201cI\u2019d rather take away the flare.\u201d<\/p>\n Last year, the Tigers\u2019 Zach McKinstry won a Silver Slugger as a utility player. He did so using an approach that has grown increasingly uncommon: targeting the open grass in front of the outfielders. McKinstry had average bat speeds and exit velocities among the lowest in the league. He said he tries to stay with a launch angle between 11 and 14 degrees \u2014 a low line drive \u2014\u00a0 and often finds that his harder-hit balls are outs.<\/p>\n Before each at-bat, McKinstry checks the defense\u2019s positioning. He has noticed it varies greatly based on his recent tendencies.<\/p>\n \u201cYou don\u2019t really get to guide the ball to where it\u2019s going,\u201d he said, \u201cbut you have a gist of where the hits are.\u201d<\/p>\n