New South Wales has recorded its second-driest April on record, according to the weather bureau, as much of the country headed into a dry spell.<\/p>\n
Rainfall was below average across every state last month, conditions that were likely to continue throughout winter, according to the Bureau of Meteorology\u2019s long-range forecast, which indicated El Ni\u00f1o was likely to develop.<\/p>\n
Hugh McDowell, a senior climatologist at the BoM, said persistent high pressure across NSW had led to the recent lack of rain. The state received only 13% of its average April rainfall, the second-lowest after 1997.<\/p>\n
The landscape was drying out, McDowell said, with soil moisture now very much below average in parts of NSW. \u201cThat\u2019s got an impact on farmers, but also it will have an impact on the risk of bushfire in the coming season ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Northern Territory<\/a> was the only jurisdiction nationwide that was wetter than normal in April.<\/p>\n Dr Mandy Freund, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, described the likely El Ni\u00f1o as the \u201celephant in the room\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cIt looks really strong. That doesn\u2019t necessarily mean we\u2019ll have really big impacts of El Ni\u00f1o on Australian rainfall, but it kind of sets the scene.\u201d<\/p>\n In Australia, El Ni\u00f1o was often associated with drier conditions, she said, with its largest impacts likely to be experienced from September to November. But a strong event doesn\u2019t necessarily mean low rainfall, she said \u2013 instead, it increased the chances of dry conditions.<\/p>\n Sign up for the Breaking News Australia email<\/a><\/p>\n Ailie Gallant, an associate professor at Monash University, said there was still some uncertainty regarding El Ni\u00f1o at this time of year \u2013 due to the \u201cautumn predictability barrier\u201d \u2013 but the situation would become much clearer in coming months.<\/p>\n \u201cOne of the things \u2026 we do know about El Ni\u00f1os is that they\u2019re very unlikely to bring very wet conditions,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n That was a concern for parts of the country heading into their third year of drier than normal conditions. The BoM observed<\/a> multi-year rainfall deficiencies across the NSW western slopes and into Queensland, large parts of west and south-west Western Australia, agricultural areas in South Australia, and much of Victoria and Tasmania.<\/p>\n Scientists were still grappling with the role of climate change in drought, Gallant said, but there was an observable reduction in cool season rainfall over the south-east, particularly in Victoria<\/a> and Tasmania.<\/p>\n A number of water storages across the east and south-west were less than 50% full, according to the BoM, with storages in the Murray-Darling Basin at 48%.<\/p>\n \u201cBroadly speaking we\u2019re in a pretty dry regime right now,\u201d Gallant said.<\/p>\n \u201cTo really kick that drought to the curb, so to speak, what\u2019s needed is very heavy and persistent rainfall, and very wet months. We just haven\u2019t seen that.<\/p>\n \u201cAt the moment there is nothing on the horizon that indicates we will get that heavy rainfall.\u201d<\/p>\n