{"id":664109,"date":"2026-05-11T15:34:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T15:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/664109\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T15:34:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T15:34:08","slug":"mlb-home-run-predictions-today-best-hr-prop-bets-picks-parlay-odds-for-monday-may-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/664109\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Monday, May 11"},"content":{"rendered":"

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We finished off the week in the black, and with the good weather coming, this is the week to flip those early-season losses to profit, and we need four units this week to do so. It’s home run and MLB player props<\/a> all week, right here.\u00a0
\u00a0
Julio Rodriguez<\/a>‘s market opened way too high today, but there is still time to buy in a great matchup. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso<\/a> went 114 mph off the bat the last time he saw Ryan Weathers<\/a>, who missed his last start due to an illness.<\/p>\n

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These are my favorite home run props and MLB picks<\/a> for Monday, May 11.<\/p>\n

Best MLB home run props today<\/p>\n

Player to hit a HR<\/p>\n

Odds<\/p>\n

Julio Rodriguez\u00a0<\/p>\n

+520<\/p>\n

Pete Alonso<\/p>\n

+490<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+520)<\/p>\n

I will fade the Houston Astros<\/a> every chance I get. Their starters are weak, and the bullpen is near the bottom of the barrel. Today, they\u2019re turning to Peter Lambert<\/a>, who is pitching above expectations and coming off a season-high 104 pitches. The quality could dip today, and right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him.<\/p>\n

Julio Rodr\u00edguez<\/a> will not close at +520 to homer. This number could fall to +400, and I\u2019d still bet it. The right-handed slugger is slashing .348\/.375\/.717 over his last 11 games with four home runs and five more extra-base hits. His production away from home has also stood out.<\/p>\n

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If he doesn\u2019t get to Lambert early, the Houston bullpen still ranks among the worst in home runs allowed and has been used heavily over the last two weeks.<\/p>\n

Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Mariners.TV<\/p>\n

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+490)<\/p>\n

The Polar Bear has treated us well this season, and today vs. New York Yankees<\/a> southpaw Ryan Weathers<\/a> is another great spot to smash the Dinger button on the\u00a0Baltimore Orioles<\/a> slugger. Weathers missed his last start due to an illness and ranks in the bottom 40 among all MLB starters in both\u00a0BlastCont% and HR\/FB rate<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There is also a familiarity factor here, as Weathers’ last start came against the Orioles, who stacked four runs on him with Pete Alonso<\/a> taking him deep on a 114-mph laser. The fair price for this four-bagger is around +400, per the projections at Covers.<\/p>\n

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Where to watch: MASN, YES<\/p>\n

Josh Inglis’ 2026 Transparency Record<\/p>\n

HR picks: 12-65, -3.14 units<\/p>\n

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.<\/p>\n

This article originally appeared on Covers.com<\/a>, read the full article here<\/a> and view our best betting sites<\/a> or check out our top sportsbook promos<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. We…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":664110,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,1186,5163,20885,591,2704,1831,153593,89961,85],"class_list":["post-664109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-baltimore-orioles","tag-houston-astros","tag-julio-rodriguez","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-pete-alonso","tag-peter-lambert","tag-ryan-weathers","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664109\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/664110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}