Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\nIn damning evidence to send additional worries through the Collingwood camp, over the past 10 years, the teams that have gone on to win premierships \u2014 in the six games in their run home \u2014 have gone a combined 45-14-1; a 75 per cent win rate. <\/p>\n
On average, premiers win at 4.5 of their final six home-and-away fixtures to ready themselves for a flag tilt. <\/p>\n
Collingwood is 1-3 in its run home with two games left before September, meaning even if it managed to finish the final stretch at 3-3, it would still be well below that critical premiership benchmark. <\/p>\n
And based on what we\u2019ve seen in recent weeks, it\u2019s hard to make the case that a return to form is on the cards this Saturday against ladder-leading Adelaide \u2014 despite its pristine recent record against the Crows and at Adelaide Oval. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt is evident that you need winning form and a level of confidence going into a finals series that means your game stacks up with the best,\u201d four-time Hawthorn premiership star Jordan Lewis told Fox Footy\u2019s On the Couch. <\/p>\n
Pendlebury signs one-year Pies extension | 00:36<\/p>\n
The Pies\u2019 ability to punish opponents from intercept, clearance and half-back has notably dissipated over the course of the past five weeks. <\/p>\n
Across the season\u2019s first 17 rounds, Collingwood ranked second in the competition for intercept-to-score rate, fifth for clearance-to-score rate, and first for half-back-to-score rate. But in the past five weeks, it\u2019s slumped to 12th, 13th and 11th respectively, per Champion Data. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe spoke about, when your game is in good shape, you can really hone in on one or two specific things for the last four rounds \u2014 (but) that is a lot to work on, and that is a huge drop-off,\u201d Lewis said of the subpar punishment numbers. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo, I think Craig McRae would be looking at this and going \u2018where do I start?\u2019 and that becomes a real problem coming into September.\u201d<\/p>\n
There are genuine concerns with the way the Pies are playing with a finals series on the near horizon. (Photo by Michael Willson\/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
But to comprehend these shortcomings, it must first be understood that the absence of key personnel in crucial \u2018system\u2019 positions is severely hurting the way the Pies want to play. <\/p>\n
Electric hybrid Beau McCreery, whose pressure game is elite and who plays an important forward-connector role, has played just one game since Round 15 amid repeat hamstring setbacks. <\/p>\n
Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill, meanwhile, has also missed six of the past seven games as he\u2019s battled both personal issues and illness. Both absences impact the centre-forward portion of the ground for the Pies. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, to make matters worse at the other end, integral intercept defender Jeremy Howe was concussed last Thursday against Hawthorn in his first game back after three weeks out. <\/p>\n
Howe\u2019s absence, compounded by Billy Frampton\u2019s own recent injury struggles, has forced McRae to hastily reshuffle, including against the Hawks when the ex-Demon was felled in the opening minutes. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s meant certain players have been forced to play out of their natural positions \u2014 with big shoes to fill \u2014 and things certainly didn\u2019t go to plan against the Hawks. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey do have a lot of experience, though you\u2019ve got to have the traits. I thought they were an unbalanced 23 (against Hawthorn). And (Jeremy) Howe went off for Ned Long; it was even worse,\u201d former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley said on Fox Footy. <\/p>\n
\u201c(Tom) Mitchell is playing as a high forward, who has to run all the way back to support that winger, and all the way forward \u2014 that is the Bobby Hill role, normally, and Mitchell doesn\u2019t have those traits. <\/p>\n
\u201cLater on \u2026 Jamie Elliott\u2019s taken out of his deepest forward role to try and get that run as a high forward, because they don\u2019t have it with Hill out, with McCreery out, Sullivan injured. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo, they take Elliott out of a preferred role, and they ask Ned Long to play as the deepest forward. (He\u2019s) having a conversation with Mihocek about \u2018where do I go\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hawthorn hammer Pies by 64 points! | 02:14<\/p>\n
The recent lack of continuity and cohesion has been reflected most concerningly in the bookends. <\/p>\n
In the past five weeks, the Pies have sat 15th for score-per-inside-50 rate for, and 14th for score-per-inside-50 rate against; spotlighting their newfound issues both in attack and defence. <\/p>\n
Further, after sitting first for points against for the majority of the season, in the past five weeks, the Pies have sat ninth for opposition scoring and eighth for opposition points from turnover. <\/p>\n
And don\u2019t think those issues excuse the engine room, either. Since Round 9, Collingwood has sat 17th in the AFL for clearance differential. <\/p>\n
Buckley added of the side\u2019s instability: \u201cOnce Long came into that team (against Hawthorn), the 22 was unbalanced. At times, you had Mitchell and Long and Pendlebury (out there) \u2026 <\/p>\n
\u201cI think the system was in place early but was beaten, and then when you started flipping the magnets around, you actually had players that didn\u2019t have the traits to play that specific role.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dan McStay\u2019s shift behind the ball was a move made out of necessity that didn\u2019t pay dividends, but with Howe ruled out of the Adelaide blockbuster, McRae\u2019s coaching staff will have another crack at the same conundrum. <\/p>\n
Alternatives at selection include recalling Charlie Dean, who\u2019s also had his shaky moments in the Pies\u2019 backline, as well as the potential to bring back Mason Cox \u2014 who\u2019s been out of the side for the past three weeks \u2014 for some more height and another focal point in attack. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think they wanted to play Houston high, they wanted to play Josh Daicos through the middle so that Houston could play high to try and get him back into form. The choice to play McStay back, we haven\u2019t seen that in a game yet,\u201d Buckley said. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere were plenty of new things we saw in Collingwood in the second half (against Hawthorn) that I believe would explain that lack of system, and potentially the lack of fight, and the lack of connection that has been so strong with Collingwood. And they need that, because they can\u2019t afford the ball to get on the outside.\u201d<\/p>\n
As Buckley notes, the Magpies were, justifiably, trying to get their dual All-Australian back in form by getting the footy in his hands. But it\u2019s painfully evident Houston hasn\u2019t played like the man the Pies aggressively traded for last October. <\/p>\n
Per Champion Data, Houston has been the 174th-ranked player across the past five weeks, down from 100th throughout the first 16 rounds of the season. And he\u2019s not the only Pie who\u2019s been in a slump. <\/p>\n
Up until six weeks ago, the durable Jack Crisp was the 13th-ranked player in the competition. In the six weeks since, he\u2019s dropped to 82nd. <\/p>\n
Breakout midfielder Ned Long has been a revelation at Olympic Park in his second year at the club, playing 21 of his 33 AFL games this season and ranking 141st for player rating across the first 16 weeks of the campaign. <\/p>\n
But in the past six rounds, he\u2019s sat a lowly 295th as his fit alongside veteran Tom Mitchell in McRae\u2019s side continues to be questioned. He\u2019s had a combined 19 possessions in his past fortnight and looked out of place once he was inserted into the action last Thursday. <\/p>\n
Elsewhere, in another stark drop, evergreen ball-winner Steele Sidebottom has gone from the 44th-ranked player to 228th in the same period. <\/p>\n
And Jamie Elliott, who was early in the season in Coleman Medal calculations, has gone from being the 18th-ranked player in the AFL to the 308th-ranked (!) in the past five weeks. He\u2019s kicked four combined goals across his past four games. <\/p>\n
Jamie Elliott and Jack Crisp are among five Pies who have observed notable dips in form. (Photo by Daniel Carson\/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
Buckley says it\u2019ll \u201ctake some soul-searching\u201d from the coaches to revitalise and recalibrate these Pies, but in terms of tangible change on the whiteboard, it\u2019ll revolve largely around speed, and where on the ground they deploy it. <\/p>\n
\u201cIn the end, I think gluing them back together is going to take some soul-searching from the coaching group,\u201d Buckley assessed. <\/p>\n
\u201cBecause without Hill, without McCreery, they don\u2019t have the speed to play the way that we saw them play, without that speed. <\/p>\n
\u201cAn option, potentially, is to say that \u2018we don\u2019t need that speed through our midfield, let\u2019s go contested (with) strong bodies through the midfield and get all our run on the outside somewhere\u2019. <\/p>\n
\u201cSo, Josh Daicos goes outside, maybe Nick (Daicos) goes outside. Jack Crisp goes to a running position, rather than holding up a midfield position. Bigger bodies in the midfield, and get all of your run on the outside to be able to play those roles.\u201d<\/p>\n
Both Hill and McCreery, promisingly, have been labelled \u2018tests\u2019 going into team selection on Thursday night. If they\u2019re out there against the Crows, and \u2018Fly\u2019 shifts a few more of his dynamic pieces from inside to outside the contest, look out for a vastly different outfit at Adelaide Oval. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s precisely the run into finals Collingwood was aiming to avoid \u2014 and there\u2019s now a considerable hole…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66621,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2095,52905,63,689,14349,52912,14432,28967,52901,52615,19061,10133,10143,52903,10128,49773,26517,52899,13213,3249,52904,2105,7492,43,5145,52911,52908,52914,52909,42717,3231,36878,10132,19080,13126,647,7198,52898,26511,52902,44,2041,2067,677,52910,45685,52896,52897,52907,52900,52895,3247,765,19083,49786,36848,52913,52906,3370,14355,41,39,42,40,2614,660,17064],"class_list":["post-66620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-america","tag-analysis-column","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-bobby-hill","tag-breakout-midfielder","tag-charlie-dean","tag-clearance-differential","tag-clearance-to-score-rate","tag-coaching-group","tag-coaching-staff","tag-collingwood-magpies","tag-craig-mcrae","tag-crucial-fixes","tag-dan-houston","tag-dan-mcstay","tag-daniel-carson","tag-evergreen-ball-winner","tag-finals-series","tag-flag-hunt","tag-game-stacks","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-hawthorn-hawks","tag-headlines","tag-houston","tag-injury-struggles","tag-integral-intercept-defender","tag-intercept-to-score-rate","tag-issues-lie","tag-jack-crisp","tag-jack-jovanovski","tag-jamie-elliott","tag-jeremy-howe","tag-jordan-lewis","tag-mason-cox","tag-melbourne","tag-michael-willson","tag-midfield-position","tag-nathan-buckley","tag-natural-positions","tag-news","tag-north-america","tag-northern-america","tag-oceania","tag-on-ball-shortcomings","tag-opposition-points","tag-premiers-win","tag-premiership-benchmark","tag-problems-lie","tag-real-problem","tag-repeat-hamstring-setbacks","tag-robert-cianflone","tag-run-home","tag-scott-pendlebury","tag-signs-one-year","tag-steele-sidebottom","tag-subpar-punishment-numbers","tag-team-selection","tag-texas","tag-tom-mitchell","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-victoria","tag-win-rate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}