{"id":67064,"date":"2025-08-14T07:24:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T07:24:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/67064\/"},"modified":"2025-08-14T07:24:22","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T07:24:22","slug":"global-inflation-watch-still-no-clear-signs-of-tariff-driven-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/67064\/","title":{"rendered":"Global inflation watch \u2013 Still no clear signs of tariff-driven inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Overview:\u00a0July inflation data offered few surprises – and still no clear signs of tariff-driven inflation. Underlying price pressures remain on a moderating trend in both the US and the euro area. Oil prices have edged lower amid OPEC’s production hikes and concerns of weaker economic outlook<\/a>. We think the ECB<\/a> is already done with rate cuts but expect the Fed to resume its easing cycle in September. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflation expectations:\u00a0Both survey and market-based inflation expectations measures have remained relatively stable over the past month. Short-term US expectations remain elevated due to the tariffs, but longer-term expectations are well anchored on both sides of the Atlantic. \u00a0<\/p>\n

US: July CPI landed close to expectations on both headline (+0.19% m\/m SA, June +0.29%, forecast +0.2%) and core terms (+0.32% m\/m, June +0.23%, forecast +0.3%). Surprisingly, the modest uptick in core inflation was mostly driven by services. This would typically be seen as a sign of sticky inflation and hence interpreted as a hawkish signal. However, the fact that core goods and food inflation remained stable at still modest levels alleviated markets’ concerns of rapid pass-through of tariff-related costs. While we do expect core goods inflation to pick up speed towards fall, the reading supports the case for the Fed’s September rate cut.<\/p>\n

Euro: Euro area inflation remained steady at 2.0% y\/y in July, slightly above expectations of a decline 1.9%. The primary driver was food price inflation, which rose to 3.3% y\/y from 3.1% in June, while core inflation remained at 2.3% y\/y as expected. Services inflation eased to 3.1% y\/y, with monthly price increase in services at only 0.19% m\/m. This brought the 3m\/3m momentum down to 3% for the first time since January, indicating an easing momentum in services. The ECB’s June staff projections estimated headline inflation for Q3 2025 to average 1.9%, and as we anticipate inflation to rise in August and September, it will likely exceed the ECB’s expectations.<\/p>\n

China:\u00a0CPI for July dropped to 0.0% y\/y from 0.1% y\/y while core CPI increased again from 0.7 % y\/y to 0.8% y\/y. PPI deflation was flat at-3.6% y\/y.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Download The Full Global Inflation Watch<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Overview:\u00a0July inflation data offered few surprises – and still no clear signs of tariff-driven inflation. Underlying price pressures…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67065,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,14270,21450,164,5465,14271,19136],"class_list":{"0":"post-67064","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-centralbanks","12":"tag-cpi","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-inflation","15":"tag-macroeconomics","16":"tag-oil"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67064\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}