{"id":674273,"date":"2026-05-16T07:29:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T07:29:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/674273\/"},"modified":"2026-05-16T07:29:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T07:29:19","slug":"here-are-nfl-experts-2026-patriots-record-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/674273\/","title":{"rendered":"Here are NFL experts\u2019 2026 Patriots record predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNew England Patriots\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tExperts are tabbing New England to have a worse record than its 14-3 mark last season.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\n\tThe general consensus among experts is a 10-7 regular-season record for the Patriots. AP Photo\/Charles Krupa\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy Kaley Brown<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMay 15, 2026 | 6:49 PM\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

5 minutes to read<\/p>\n

All 32 NFL teams released their respective schedules for the 2026 season, and the New England Patriots have a doozy of a slate ahead of them.<\/p>\n

The Patriots had perhaps one of the easiest schedules in 2025, in which they finished with a 14-3 record. They won the AFC and ultimately fell to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, their first appearance since the 2018 season.<\/p>\n

New England\u2019s success in turn handed them a formidable regular-season schedule for 2026. You can find the Patriots\u2019 full slate with opponents and times here<\/a>, as well as analysis here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Given the opponents New England will be tasked with, including Seattle, the Denver Broncos (who the Patriots defeated in the AFC Championship game), and the Chicago Bears, to name a few, it\u2019s safe to assume the reigning AFC champs will finish with fewer wins than last year.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s precisely what experts are predicting following the team\u2019s schedule release.<\/p>\n

Here are some of their final 2026 Patriots record predictions:<\/p>\n

Chad Graff has the Patriots winning double-digit games and a second-place AFC East finish behind the Buffalo Bills.<\/p>\n

Graff believes New England\u2019s \u201ctoughest stretch\u201d will be Weeks 12-15 when it faces the Los Angeles Chargers, Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and Kansas City Chiefs.<\/p>\n

\u201cA year ago, the team\u2019s schedule was a hot topic after a plethora of easy games,\u201d he wrote. \u201cBut it\u2019ll be hard to make that argument amid this brutal stretch of four matchups.\u201d<\/p>\n

Graff said the Patriots made several welcome additions over the offseason coming off a brutal Super Bowl loss, but it won\u2019t translate to more wins.<\/p>\n

\u201cI do think the Patriots are a better football team than they were the day they walked off the field in Santa Clara after the Super Bowl. But they benefited a year ago from a historically easy schedule and relative good fortune with keeping players healthy,\u201d he said. \u201cNeither is likely to repeat.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo even while the Patriots may be a better team in 2026 with a better chance of winning the Super Bowl, it\u2019s highly likely that they finish the regular season with a worse record than the 14-3 mark of a year ago.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mike Clay tabbed the Patriots to secure 10 victories based on his projected win probabilities in each contest.<\/p>\n

Clay gave New England a measly 32 percent chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 1 while giving the franchise a 93 percent chance of defeating the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.<\/p>\n

ESPN ranked the Patriots\u2019 strength of schedule at 21 as one of the more difficult slates.<\/p>\n

Mike Reiss<\/a> pointed out the top-heavy road games New England will play to start the season as his largest takeaway.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Patriots were \u2018road warriors\u2019 last season as the only team to win every game away from home, and the NFL amped up the challenge for them to duplicate that feat in 2026 with the team having seven of its first 11 games on the road,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThree of the first four games are away from home (all against playoff teams from last season). And of the Patriots\u2019 five primetime games, four are on the road.\u201d<\/p>\n

Henry McKenna similarly predicted the Patriots to pull off 10 regular-season wins.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s actually rare for a Super Bowl loser to miss the playoffs altogether, and I don\u2019t think that\u2019ll happen here \u2014 not as the Patriots continued to invest in their weakness on offense and built even more depth to their defense,\u201d McKenna said.<\/p>\n

FOX explained New England made several welcome additions to help bolster different areas of its roster, including Alijah Vera-Tucker in the trenches and wide receiver Romeo Doubs.<\/p>\n

The platform noted a potential looming A.J. Brown trade, which could give the team more wins on paper.<\/p>\n

\u201cNew England\u2019s biggest move this offseason might not have happened yet, though. The Patriots have been widely linked to Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is rumored to be traded after June 1. Such a move would give Drake Maye a clear No. 1 wide receiver as he looks to build upon his MVP runner-up campaign from 2025.\u201d<\/p>\n

Karen Guregian went the 10-7 route, too.<\/p>\n

Guregian doesn\u2019t think New England will have more than a two-game win streak at any point in the year.<\/p>\n

She has the team falling to Seattle (Week 1), Buffalo (Week 4), Chicago (Week 7), Detroit (Week 10), L.A. Chargers (Week 12), Kansas City (Week 15), and Denver (Week 17).<\/p>\n

Phil Perry landed at a 10-7 record for the Patriots, as well. He predicted the team would squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card spot.<\/p>\n

Perry tabbed New England to beat the Detroit Lions in Munich, Germany, in Week 10.<\/p>\n

He highlighted five uber-important games on New England\u2019s schedule that could make or break its ability to compete in the postseason for the second season in a row.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think there are some really key games here,\u201d Perry said. \u201cI\u2019m thinking Jacksonville. I\u2019m thinking Chicago. I\u2019m thinking Green Bay. I\u2019m thinking Detroit. I\u2019m thinking L.A. Chargers. All five of those teams are difficult matchups, but they\u2019re all games that the Patriots could very realistically win.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not saying they will sweep them, but if you can come out of those five with a winning record, you\u2019re a playoff team in my opinion.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brian Hines gave the most optimistic Patriots record prediction at 12-5.<\/p>\n

His projected five losses are as follows:<\/p>\n

Week 1 at Seattle
Week 4 at Buffalo
Week 7 at Chicago
Week 9 vs. Green Bay
Week 12 at Los Angeles Chargers<\/p>\n

Hines\u2019s 12-win prediction is just two fewer than New England\u2019s 14 wins in 2025.<\/p>\n

Jordy McElroy has the Patriots doing pretty well for themselves with 11 wins.<\/p>\n

He predicted New England to beat the Seahawks in Week 1, which is an interesting pick given the Patriots\u2019 early underdog status in that game.<\/p>\n

McElroy noted the team\u2019s tricky schedule of opponents, but said they will be \u201cmuch better\u201d compared to last season\u2019s Super Bowl-competing squad.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Patriots will be a much better team in 2026, but they\u2019ll take a step back in the win category due to a significantly harder schedule,\u201d he wrote. \u201cHowever, they will still be in the thick of things when it comes to competing with the Bills for the AFC East division title and making it to the playoffs. Anything can happen once a team makes it to the postseason, as the Patriots showed last season.\u201d<\/p>\n

Matt Verderame predicted a just-above-.500 2026 Patriots regular season record at 9-8.<\/p>\n

Verderame doesn\u2019t have nearly as positive an outlook as other experts, citing the organization\u2019s muddy offseason off the field in the Mike Vrabel-Dianna Russini fiasco. He also cited the team\u2019s difficult schedule coming off a much easier 2025 slate.<\/p>\n

\u201cNew England made a shocking Super Bowl appearance last year, but reality might come hard this year,\u201d he wrote. \u201cPutting aside the off-field drama that has engulfed the organization this offseason, the Patriots are also going from one of the league\u2019s easiest schedules over the past 30 years to a docket that includes a whopping five road games against 2025 playoff teams, along with trips to Kansas City and Detroit.\u201d<\/p>\n

\t\t\"Profile\t<\/p>\n

\t\tKaley Brown<\/a>Sports producer\t<\/p>\n

Kaley Brown is a sports producer for Boston.com, where she covers the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGet the latest Boston sports news<\/p>\n

Receive updates on your favorite Boston teams, straight from our newsroom to your inbox.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"New England Patriots Experts are tabbing New England to have a worse record than its 14-3 mark last…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":674274,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[64,63,593,85],"class_list":["post-674273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/674273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=674273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/674273\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/674274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=674273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=674273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=674273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}