{"id":677773,"date":"2026-05-18T02:32:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T02:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/677773\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T02:32:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T02:32:09","slug":"economy-is-stalling-business-performance-data-point-to-zero-growth-as-iran-war-oil-shock-hits-jobs-and-growth-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/677773\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Economy is stalling\u2019 \u2013 business performance data point to zero growth as Iran war oil shock hits jobs and growth outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"The services sector continued to contract, but at a slower rate than it did in March.<\/p>\n
The PSI for April was 48.9, up from 46.2 in March.<\/p>\n
\u201cMore than two-thirds of the respondents commented that the factors influencing their business during the past month were negative, and many of the comments focused on fuel prices,\u201d BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith the continuing conflict affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it is difficult to foresee a quick return to expansion in the sector.\u201d<\/p>\n
BNZ\u2019s Toplis noted that the employment indicator was a particular concern.<\/p>\n
It remained below the \u201cbreak-even\u201d mark of 50 for the 29th consecutive month. <\/p>\n
\u201cWith this being so, it should be of no surprise that over the last two years, the unemployment rate has climbed from 4.4% to 5.3% and is likely to rise further,\u201d Toplis said.<\/p>\n
\u201cMoreover, the length of time that reported hiring has been weak will help explain why the unemployed are remaining unemployed for an increasing length of time.\u201d<\/p>\n
The combined employment index for manufacturing and services indicated there was no current employment growth, Toplis said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSimilarly, the combined headline indicator suggests the economy is stalling in the current quarter,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is consistent with our view that [second-quarter] GDP growth will struggle to climb above zero as not only the war directly impacts activity but also the inventory building that likely occurred towards the end of the first quarter will not be repeated.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAt first glance, the jump in the headline index for services, from 46.2 in March to 48.9 in April, might be read as hope the New Zealand economy is proving to be remarkably resilient to the war in the Middle East,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn the other hand, it could be interpreted as further evidence that the economy is struggling to get its head above water.\u201d<\/p>\n
The manufacturing side of the economy had remained more robust, Toplis said.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, we feared it was only a matter of time before the wheels started to fall off and, alas, the April survey indicates that time may now have arrived.\u201d<\/p>\n
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.<\/p>\n
Stay ahead with the latest market moves, corporate updates, and economic insights by subscribing to our Business newsletter<\/a> \u2013 your essential weekly round-up of all the business news you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The services sector continued to contract, but at a slower rate than it did in March. The PSI…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":677774,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[617,10960,64,63,99,5612,63441,2458,164,208,84856,5575,1460,180,8117,19136,4911,13260,6342,321,37042,266185,319,6900,3605,35241],"class_list":["post-677773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-and","tag-as","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-businesses","tag-coping","tag-data","tag-economy","tag-growth","tag-hits","tag-iran","tag-is","tag-jobs","tag-just","tag-oil","tag-only","tag-outlook","tag-performance","tag-point","tag-shock","tag-stalling","tag-to","tag-war","tag-with","tag-zero"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=677773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/677773\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/677774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=677773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=677773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=677773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}