In cricket, they say you can\u2019t judge a pitch until both sides have batted. Maybe it\u2019s a road, maybe it\u2019s a minefield. You only know once the other team\u2019s had a go.<\/p>\n
Rugby has its own version: you can\u2019t judge a forward pack until it\u2019s gone toe-to-toe with the Springboks.<\/p>\n
The Wallabies arrived in South Africa<\/a> on the back of a 2-1 British & Irish Lions<\/a> series defeat but with their reputations burnished, especially their burly forwards.<\/p>\n Will Skelton effectively bossed every collision he was involved in. Rob Valetini<\/a>, in just 40 minutes of rugby, made a case for being the most destructive loose forward in the world. Angus Bell<\/a> and Taniela Tupou<\/a> offered torque in the front row. Langi Gleeson<\/a> was rangy in the loose. Fraser McReight<\/a> was a threat at the breakdown while Nick Frost<\/a> added ballast in the second row.<\/p>\n Sure, the Wallabies lost. But as individuals their most prominent forwards mixed it with a consortium of the best of four leading European nations. Joe Schmidt might be a coach renowned for structured phase play, and Australian rugby has always provided fireworks with ball in hand and off first-phase strike plays. But this was something different. No wonder they\u2019ve rolled into the land of giants with their eyes on some sizable scalps.<\/p>\n Sober rugby minds have wondered if the Aussies are an outside chance. To be fair, no one, at least no one that I could find on social media, has outright said that the Wallabies will win in Johannesburg. But the general tone has been one of cautious optimism. Even the respected New Zealand<\/a> commentator Tony Johnson kept things measured when he said that the Springboks will start as \u201cwarm\u201d favourites.<\/p>\n Warm favourites? As in, just a smidge hotter than room temperature? That\u2019s like calling a crocodile \u201cmoderately bitey.\u201d Let\u2019s be honest: if the Springboks don\u2019t pulverise the Wallabies at Ellis Park, it\u2019s a major upset.<\/p>\n Some caveats first. I recognise that the Wallabies are a different outfit with Skelton. Any team would be. His sheer size means that every carry, every clean-out, every hit compels the opposition to rethink their strategy. He commands the attention of two men at every tackle and clear-out, which in turn thins the line elsewhere. But that imposing frame is 33 years old and doesn\u2019t have the engine to last the full 80 minutes.<\/p>\n Beyond Skelton, the only other superstar in the Aussie pack is Valetini. But he\u2019s nursing a calf injury and, from reports in Australia, he is unlikely to feature.<\/p>\n That leaves Schmidt with between 40 and 60 minutes from one genuinely elite operator in the pack. With Skelton they\u2019re better. Without Valetini they\u2019re stuffed. And right now, it looks like they\u2019ll only have half of that equation for half a game.<\/p>\n Then there is the factor that they\u2019re playing in Johannesburg. The Wallabies last won at Ellis Park in 1963. Since professionalism, they\u2019ve been outscored 207\u2013107 there. The City of Gold has been nothing but fool\u2019s gold for them. Their most recent visit ended with a 35-17 defeat in the first round of the 2019 Rugby Championship.<\/p>\n But beyond the weight of history, the expectations and the sense that this Wallabies outfit is on an upward trajectory, the simple truth is that they\u2019re up against a team that is better. The Springboks are a cut above. World Rugby\u2019s rankings prove that, but so does the eye test.<\/p>\n They were below par against Italy<\/a> and Georgia<\/a> while Australia<\/a> were tuning up for this mini-series against the Lions. The breakdown in particular was a concern, where the Boks were often second to the ball while carriers were left isolated. This is a consequence of Tony Brown\u2019s desire to keep men in the trams with others available in the line once the ball has been secured. But there are signs of improvement, and it\u2019ll be a surprise if the same flaws are evidenced in the two Australia Tests.<\/p>\n This should be rectified by a dynamic back row. Pieter-Steph du Toit<\/a> will attack anything that moves with his trademark fanaticism, while Marco van Staden<\/a> will surely be tasked with the role of destroyer-in-chief at the breakdown. With Siya Kolisi<\/a> slotting in at the back of the pack \u2013 a role he has fulfilled with mixed results at the Sharks \u2013 the Boks will rely on a high tempo and a frenetic approach that will make the Wallabies sidle from coast to coast. How long can they keep that up 1,800 metres above sea level?<\/p>\n Beyond this chink in the armour, the Boks, on paper at least, seem a class apart with game-changers in every position (when was the last time the Springboks had three fly-half options while the Wallabies barely had one?). The selection of Malcolm Marx<\/a> as the starting hooker ahead of Bongi Mbonambi<\/a> is perhaps a sign that Rassie Erasmus<\/a> intends to hit the Wallabies hard and early, thereby wrapping up the result by the time Skelton makes his early exit. Against the Lions in the second Test, Skelton and Valetini were subbed off while Australia were still ahead. Erasmus won\u2019t want to play catch-up late in the piece.<\/p>\n Ellis Park doesn\u2019t deal in fairy tales. The altitude is unforgiving, the Boks are unrelenting, and history is unyielding. The Wallabies might land a few shots, but this is South Africa at home. This is the double world champions against the sixth-best team in the world. How good are the Wallabies? We\u2019re about to find out. Keep an ear out for the audible thunk as they come back down to earth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In cricket, they say you can\u2019t judge a pitch until both sides have batted. 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