AAA<\/p>\n
Samir Wanmali, the Thai-based director of the United Nations World Food Program for Asia and the Pacific, a man who speaks in long, careful and precise sentences, is having trouble sleeping.<\/p>\n
Ask him what keeps him up at night and he rattles off a series of numbers. The UN, says Wanmali, is currently tracking 318 million people at risk of acute hunger. Of those, 69 million fall into his region of responsibility. But there\u2019s more to it than that.<\/p>\n
In January, a string of undersea buoys strung across the Pacific, and a brace of satellites orbiting above, began blinking in further warnings to observers. They detected what is known as a Kelvin wave, a mass of warm water, gathering on the eastern Pacific around Ecuador and releasing a heated plume to the west towards Australia.<\/p>\n
Then, on February 28, a wave of bombs and missiles unleashed by the United States and Israel slammed into targets across Iran, beginning the war that has seen the Strait of Hormuz closed to sea traffic ever since.<\/p>\n
The Kelvin wave is typically plotted on maps of the Pacific as a red plume extending along the equator like a spear. It suggests that an El Ni\u00f1o is rapidly developing, a weather pattern that typically causes floods in parts of the Americas and droughts, heat and fire in parts of Australia and Asia, cutting crucial crop yields.<\/p>\n
![\"An](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/e958e543b41cf042843203bae5007a190be5f873.jpeg\")
An image from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite taken on April 5 showing the emergence of a Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean.NASA<\/p>\n
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not only crippled global oil supplies, but also supplies of gas, used to make urea, which in turn is a key ingredient of fertiliser. The UN\u2019s analysts, says Wanmali, fear that these two crises woven together \u2013 what is already being referred to by some observers as an omnicrisis \u2013 could drive up the number of people who will face acute food shortages over the coming months.<\/p>\n
And here the figures come tumbling out again. The UN fears a further 45 million people face intense hunger across the world \u2013 of those, 9 million are in the Asia Pacific region \u2013 due to the combination of disrupted weather and shortages of fuel and fertiliser.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we\u2019re looking at is a series of intersecting and compounding crises that start with the existing prevalence of food insecurity and malnutrition in the region,\u201d says Wanmali.<\/p>\n
But it gets worse still, at least from a climate perspective.<\/p>\n
![\"The](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/903ea078a5dfaec73baa68be152f86ff97cdcbc4.jpeg\")
The skyrocketing cost of fertiliser is playing havoc with rice planting in Asia.Getty Images<\/p>\n
The readings being gathered by the buoys and satellites that track the plume of heat in the Pacific have not been normal even by the standards of El Ni\u00f1o conditions. One key measure, known as the Ni\u00f1o-3.4 index, revealed warming of 1 degree between March and May. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology noted that 0.3 degrees of that increase occurred in a single fortnight. This is an exceptionally fast and furious increase in ocean temperature.<\/p>\n
This has prompted some observers to warn that the most intense El Ni\u00f1o in recorded history could be brewing. Some have described it as an impending super El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
Is There Such a Thing as a Super El Ni\u00f1o?<\/p>\n
When this masthead first reported that international observers were describing the warming in these terms<\/a>, one of Australia\u2019s leading climate scientists warned against the use of such language.<\/p>\n \u201cThe phrase \u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 makes climate scientists like me roll our eyes,\u201d wrote Kimberley Reid,<\/a> a postdoctoral research fellow in atmospheric sciences at the University of Melbourne, in an article for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen ocean temperatures are 0.8 degrees warmer than usual in that region, and the trade winds have sufficiently weakened, the Bureau of Meteorology can declare an El Ni\u00f1o has arrived. (The United States uses 0.5 degrees as the figure).<\/p>\n Related Article \u201cA \u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 is when the region\u2019s ocean temperatures rise 2 degrees, roughly two standard deviations<\/a> above normal (about a 2.5 per cent chance of happening),\u201d she wrote. \u201cWhile scientists first coined<\/a> the term, the evocative phrase has become a favourite of media commentators.<\/p>\n \u201cBut Australian forecasters don\u2019t use these terms, as it doesn\u2019t matter that much for our weather if the index goes over 2 degrees. What matters much more is whether an El Ni\u00f1o is present or not.\u201d<\/p>\n In simple terms, she explained to this masthead in a later interview, it was not yet certain that the El Ni\u00f1o signalled by ocean and atmospheric temperatures on that long red spear across the Pacific would eventuate. Further, even if it did, the intensity of an El Ni\u00f1o does not correlate to unusually intense outcomes for Australia, though it will cause hotter and drier conditions.<\/p>\n That might be of some comfort to Australian farmers, but it is of little comfort to Wanmali, whose responsibility extends to the region and the world, where an extreme El Ni\u00f1o does correlate to extreme conditions. Besides, just as Australians are suffering from increased energy prices, even though we export energy, Australians will face price increases for foodstuffs when the global supply of rice and grains shrinks. Everything connects.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u201cIt would be a globally catastrophic event if it\u2019s a super El Ni\u00f1o because we know that those super El Ni\u00f1os can bring horrendous flooding rains to Latin America, severe drought and bushfire to Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Asia, and it even teleconnects to Antarctica \u2026 and can lead to more rapid rates of ice shelf melt,\u201d UNSW Scientia Professor Matthew England, a climate scientist specialising in oceanic modelling, told this masthead last month.<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a global phenomenon, it\u2019s extreme in magnitude in terms of how far it reaches, and the amount it changes our climate patterns, and it costs us deeply because there are disruptions to what we do, everything from fisheries to heat extremes to flooding, rains and drought.\u201d<\/p>\n Dr James Hansen who, as director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, became famous when he warned US Congress of the potential impact of global warming in 1988, also pushed back against Reid in recent weeks.<\/p>\n \u201cMedia attention to the possibility of an upcoming \u2018Super El Nino\u2019 irritates some scientists, given inherent uncertainty in forecasts,\u201d he wrote in April<\/a> in a piece alongside three other climate scientists. \u201cWe push back gently against that irritation. Predictions in the face of uncertainty are a valuable approach, with the potential to increase our understanding.\u201d<\/p>\n Further, he argued, measurements of water temperatures 300 metres beneath the ocean surface were a more reliable indicator of the phenomenon. \u201cThe 300-metre temperature already assures that we will have an El Ni\u00f1o in 2026-27,\u201d Hansen and his colleagues wrote. \u201cThe March average of the 300-metre temperature anomaly exceeds plus 1 degrees. At that point, it is consistent with either a Super El Ni\u00f1o or an ordinary El Ni\u00f1o. However, in the first week of April, the 300-metre anomaly reaches plus 1.6 degrees.\u201d<\/p>\n So far this year, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models give a 98 per cent chance<\/a> of at least a moderate El Ni\u00f1o, an 80 per cent chance of a strong El Ni\u00f1o and a 20-25 per cent chance of a super El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Worse still, as global temperatures rise due to climate change, even moderate El Ni\u00f1os are hotter than those that occurred before warming began, as each spike of heat builds off a higher baseline temperature. Since 1980, there have been three super El Ni\u00f1os. The 2015-2016 El Ni\u00f1o was the biggest yet, with the sea surface temperature anomaly peaking at 3 degrees in November 2015. The previous record was a 2.8 degree anomaly in January 1983. On each occasion, the year that followed the onset of the super El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 1983, 1998 and 2016 \u2013 smashed the record for the world\u2019s hottest year in recorded history.<\/p>\n The current hottest year in history is 2024, which followed a moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o year, and the past 11 years<\/a> are the 11 hottest on record.<\/p>\n The Cascade <\/p>\n More heat in the atmosphere lends more energy to the storms that already batter the world. Wanmali explains that in the last five years, \u201cthe frequency of natural disasters are on the rise\u201d. In Pakistan, he says, major flooding used to occur every four to five years. Now, flooding comes with every monsoon. Last year, floods left around 3 million people displaced and in need of immediate humanitarian assistance.<\/p>\n As the monsoon season approaches alongside an El Ni\u00f1o, he is fearful for populations left all the more precarious by the war that has restricted not just fertiliser, but fuel, which is needed to ship and truck grains and to run pumps and irrigation systems.<\/p>\n Indeed, complications are already rippling through long and complex supply chains. In March, S&P Global reported that Asian rice exports were being hampered by <\/a>a shortage of the plastic raffia that is used to make sacks to carry and ship the grain, which in turn is made from oil exported from the Gulf. \u201cDeals booked in February are also stuck, and so far, no new vessel has been able to transit,\u201d one buyer of the material in India told S&P.<\/p>\n While it is unclear what impact the looming omnicrisis will have on the region, by sheer dint of its wealth, Australia is likely to do better than neighbouring nations the WFP is preparing to assist. \u201cBangladesh is a country that imports 30 per cent of its electricity generation as oil,\u201d said John Grimes, the outgoing chief executive of the Smart Energy Council, during that organisation\u2019s annual conference earlier this month.<\/p>\n \u201cThey are massively exposed to the oil crisis that\u2019s playing out around the world. It\u2019s not just about financial market confidence, it\u2019s about the physical systems that drive the economy. When you don\u2019t have electricity, then you don\u2019t have the way to transport diesel, you don\u2019t have the way to transport food.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u201cYour food system starts to break down. You don\u2019t have electricity to run water treatment plants. All of a sudden, you\u2019re subject to disease outbreaks. You don\u2019t have the electricity to run your hospital, your critical systems to keep medications cold.<\/p>\n \u201cCountries like Australia \u2026 will be able to secure the diesel that we need, the oil that we need for our industry. But remember, not every country is in that position, and there are many countries around the world that will disproportionately feel the pain of this cascading effect.\u201d<\/p>\n Dr Timothy Neal, Scientia senior lecturer in the UNSW\u2019s School of Economics and also at the Institute for Climate Risk & Response, says the combination of a likely El Ni\u00f1o and fuel and fertiliser shortages is a \u201cperfect\u201d storm for Australian agriculture. He argues that to estimate its impact we should look at the recent past. According to his research, \u201cthe real price of food today \u2026 is roughly where it was in the 1960s\u201d, which he finds \u201cstaggering\u201d given huge productivity gains. His unpublished research suggests that climate change and more extreme weather have eroded those gains by hitting yields, so the potential dividend from improved production has been largely cancelled out.<\/p>\n Last month, the UN\u2019s Food and Agricultural Organisation reported prices had already begun to increase. \u201cThe FAO Food Price Index<\/a>, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 128.5 points in March, up 2.4 per cent from February and 1.0 per cent above its level a year ago,\u201d it reported.<\/p>\n \u201cThe FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.5 per cent from the previous month, driven primarily by higher world wheat prices, which rose 4.3 per cent due to drought-related deterioration of crop prospects in the United States of America, and expectations of reduced plantings in Australia due to higher fertiliser costs. Global maize quotations edged up slightly, as ample global availability offset concerns over fertiliser affordability and indirect support from greater ethanol demand prospects, linked to the rising energy prices.\u201d<\/p>\n ReliefWeb, an online news service for global humanitarian organisations, subsequently warned the looming El Ni\u00f1o is \u201cassociated with rainfall deficits, higher temperatures, and extended dry spells across Caribbean states, including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and parts of Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago\u201d. It said Belize had already activated \u201cdrought-related anticipatory action mechanisms\u201d and warned that much of the world had not yet recovered from consecutive shocks, including the COVID pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n Writing for CarbonBrief, climate scientist Zeke Huasfather said a strong El Ni\u00f1o was likely<\/a>, and would probably peak between November and January. He added that recent history showed the year following an El Ni\u00f1o to be hotter still. This could make 2027 the hottest year in recorded history.<\/p>\n Hansen projects the average global temperature could hit 1.7 degrees above the historical mean next year, a temperature the UN predicted in 2025 the world would not see until the early 2040s.<\/p>\n![\"Computer](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/a322af0aafeddde8ccaea3bfd2efdd6c7171ca2d7cc064d15e97462273011833.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/a322ff5bde234a785476c0314848e2ecd22b5230.jpeg\")
A Super El Ni\u00f1o brought a crushing drought to Australia in 1982-83.Paul\/Fairfax Media<\/p>\n![\"Villagers](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/60d0a5762183f5450e0ad4120ef2001588e30f02.jpeg\")
Villagers hit by flooding in Pakistan\u2019s southern Sindh province queue for food in 2022. Floods are now a yearly occurrence.AP<\/p>\n![\"Wheat](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/e0b466a731baaeb840785b85c124295d387df1d0.jpeg\")
Wheat prices are rising due to drought and higher fertiliser costs.AP<\/p>\n