An AI system will work with humans to make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within 12 months and tradespeople will be helped by bipedal robots in two years, according to the co-founder of Anthropic.<\/p>\n
Jack Clark described a \u201cvertiginous sense of progress\u201d in the technology and made a series of predictions, including that companies run solely by AIs would be generating millions of dollars in revenue within 18 months, and that by the end of 2028, AI systems would be able to design their own successors.<\/p>\n
In a lecture at Oxford University on Wednesday, he also said there remained plausible scenarios in which the technology had \u201ca non-zero chance of killing everyone on the planet\u201d and that it was \u201cimportant to clearly state that that risk hasn\u2019t gone away\u201d. Anthropic\u2019s most popular model is called Claude, but it recently launched a version called Mythos that proved alarmingly capable<\/a> at exploiting cybersecurity weaknesses.<\/p>\n Clark told students it would be better if humans could slow the development of the technology \u201cto give ourselves more time as a species\u201d to deal with the implications of its powers. But he said this wouldn\u2019t happen, in the breakneck development \u201cby a variety of actors and a variety of countries, locked in a competition with one another, where commercial and geopolitical rivalries are often drowning out the larger existential-to-the-species aspects of the technology being built\u201d. This was \u201cnot ideal\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n Jack Clark said he wanted to encourage humanity to prepare for a technology that would \u2018soon be more capable than all of us collectively\u2019. Photograph: Samuel Corum\/Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Clark is one of the most senior figures at Anthropic, which was established by AI researchers who quit the rival firm OpenAI<\/a> over disagreements on safety. The $900bn (\u00a3670bn) company has been accused by Donald Trump\u2019s White House and other AI accelerationists of \u201cfear-mongering\u201d to encourage regulation that could cement its competitive position.<\/p>\n Anthropic disputes this, and Clark said many people appeared to be in denial about AI\u2019s progress. He said he wanted to encourage humanity to prepare for a technology that would \u201csoon be more capable than all of us collectively\u201d. Comparing the failure to prepare for AI to the failure to prepare for pandemics such as Covid, he said: \u201cIf we stand by and let synthetic intelligence multiply, then we\u2019ll eventually be forced into reactivity.\u201d<\/p>\n Critics of the frontier AI companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI and Google<\/a> fear over-reliance on their few AI models \u2013 which have been backed by huge amounts of profit-seeking capital \u2013 could create a \u201csingle point of failure\u201d in global systems.<\/p>\n Prof Edward Harcourt<\/a>, the director of the Institute for Ethics in AI, which co-hosted Clark\u2019s lecture, separately warned that the rise of AIs that did more and more things for humans risked creating \u201ccognitive atrophy\u201d which could weaken humans\u2019 decision-making and powers of judgment. He advocated for alternative AI models that ask humans to do more of the thinking, sometimes called \u201cSocratic\u201d AI<\/a>.<\/p>\n Clark said his most conservative prediction was that \u201cvast swathes of the economy and society will go through profound changes\u201d \u2013 which could include a machine economy decoupling from the human economy, robots gaining brains, science progressing without humans, and scientific equipment that people hadn\u2019t conceived of but which worked. He admitted some of this sounded \u201ccrazy\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An AI system will work with humans to make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within 12 months and tradespeople…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":684637,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":["post-684636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-technology"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=684636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/684636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/684637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=684636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=684636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=684636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}